Transcript Public Opinion

Public Opinion
What is public opinion?
►“To
speak with precision of public
opinion is a task not unlike coming to
grips with the Holy Ghost” –VO Key Jr.
►Attitudes,
perceptions, and views
individuals hold about politics and govt.
►Willing to share, common concerns
►how much goes into making policy?
What makes it so confusing?
►Only
attracts the attention of some
►Many times no majority opinion
►Pluralist: often prevails- govt. responds
to the view of intense minority
►Elitist: other issues that are obscure.
ex: US relations with Madagascar?
►Majority (mass): few, broad, allconcerning issues- social security
►Attentive: those with an active interest
Ways to express public opinion
►Voting
►Protest
demonstration
►Letter-writing
►Television commercials
►Lobbyists
►E-mail
►Think of one more!
The debate on
►How
much should it really play in
public policy?
►Madison: popular opinion vs. public o.
►“Momentary
passions are not govt.
concern, represent only “true interests”
►Jackson
and Progressive movements
►George Gallup (the Gallup poll): any
opinion held by citizens should be
taken into account
George Gallup
Quickly try to predict the margin of error!
How informed are the people?
►Kosovo
►Jaywalking
►The
news?
Thinking stick: Are Americans informed enough to make
governing decisions? Should there be prerequisites?
Types of Opinions:
►Stable:
change very little (death
penalty)
►Fluid: change frequently (popularity)
►Latent: dormant, but may be aroused
(the draft)
►Intense: (abortion?)
►Non-intensive:
►Salient:
personal importance to some
(Brady Bill)
CP Skip!
Types of Opinions:
►Consensus:
shared by 75% people
(balanced budget)
►Polarized: shared by LESS than 75%
(serious gun control)
Polarized opinion: America should outlaw weapons!
The value of opinion polls
Measuring Public Opinion: Polls
►Straw
Polls are inaccurate
►Elections
don’t tell why
►Scientific polls are the best!
►Construction:
- definition of universe
-
Accurate selection of sample (1000)
Writing the question
Selection or means of polling
What might be some problems with polls?
►Sampling error (3%, Gallup amazing!)
►Probability sample
►Wording
►Election night projections through “exit
polls”
Horse-race
journalism!
Can you see how “wording” of
questions can be manipulative?
Exit Poll Issues
Race” mentality
►Pandering to whims of public
►Early projection can discourage turnout
in the West and flawed data (Florida!)
►“Horse
Hand-counts
In Florida: 2000
1992: So many polls lead to voter apathy.
Clinton was projected way in lead! Perot?