Transcript PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

PUBLIC OPINION AND
POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION
What is Public Opinion?
• Public opinion – the aggregate of individual attitudes
or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult
population
– Extremely dynamic; shaped by and shapes groups
– The private becomes public
• Distribution of Opinion
– Consensus : general agreement among the people
– Divisive Opinion: Public opinion that is polarized between
two positions
Shaping Opinion
• Political Socialization - The
process in which individuals
acquire political beliefs and
values
• Major Agents of Socialization
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Family
School
Peers
Media (opinion leaders)
The Family and Education
• Family: Most important agent of socialization
– Families have similar political views
– Usually hold same party affiliation as parents
• Influence of adult children in 2008 election
• School: pass on American political values
– Significant formal influence
• Intentional via curriculum
• Unintentional via teacher behavior and attitude
Peer groups and Media
• Peer Groups: increases in
influence with age
– May stem from group
participation in the political
– Often indirect; shapes how to
behave in relationships,
transmission of social behavior
• Media: Communicates the
issues
– Often most common
connection to opinion leaders
– Agenda Setting
Other Factors
• Political Events
– Lifestyle effect: Certain attitudes at certain ages
• Being a teenager vs. being a parent
– Generational effect: event that has lasting impact
• Watergate and 9/11
• Religion – predicts party affiliation and voting behavior
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Social Status Theory
• Catholics & Jews – Associated with the Democratic Party because
used to be poor and therefore democratic.
– Religious Tradition Theory: The moral teachings guides party
affiliation.
• Jews – Social justice
• Protestants – Personal salvation
Other Factors
• Identity Politics
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Socio-Economic Status
Race and Ethnicity
Gender
Region
• Election specific-factors
– Party Identification
– Perception of the
Candidates
– Issue Preferences
Voting Behavior
Voting Behavior
How We Form
Political Opinions
Personal
Beliefs
Political
Knowledge
Cues
From
Leaders
Political Opinions
Opinion Polls
Polls are interviews or surveys of
a sample of citizens used to
estimate how the public feels
about an issue or set of issues.
Early Efforts to Influence
and Measure Public Opinion
• Public opinion polling as we know it today developed in
the 1930s.
• As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predict
election winners using polls.
• Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen as
highly problematic.
• The American Voter was published in 1960 and
continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes
and behavior.
– This book studied the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections and
discussed how class coalitions led to party affiliation.
How We Measure Public Opinion
In order for a poll to be reliable, it must
have:
• Proper question wording
• An accurate sample
– contacting respondents – Since 95% of
Americans have phones, random phone calling
would be a valid method.
Sampling Techniques
• Representative Sampling - To accurately predict the whole based on only a
sample, the sample must be representative.
– Sample of interviewees should reflect population as a whole
• Randomness - A purely random sample will be representative within the stated
margin of error.
– every person in the defined population has to have an equal chance of being selected
– The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error
– quota sampling: researchers decide how many persons of certain types they need in
the survey: ex. minorities, women, or farmers
• Within the categories, the sample may be nonrandom and therefore biased.
• The Importance of Accuracy - interview about 1500 individuals to measure
sentiment of 200 million American adults
– Their results have a high probability of being correct—within a margin of three
percentage points—and they have had some notable successes in accurately
predicting election results.
Problems with Polls
• Sampling Errors: the difference between a sample’s results and
the true result if the entire population had been interviewed.
– The sample is too small
– Do not know how to correct for common biases in samples.
• Poll Questions: The design of a question can affect the result.
– Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray
– Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer
• Push Polls: attempts to spread negative statements about a
candidate by posing as a pollster and using long questions
containing information about the opposition
– Both candidates and advocacy groups use push polls.
How We Measure Public Opinion
• In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell
you the question wording, the sampling method,
and the ways in which respondents were
contacted.
• Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number
of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or 5%).
• Any poll that tells you to call 555-5554 for yes
and 555-5555 for no is unscientific and
unreliable. This is not a random sample at all!
Types of Polls
• Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a
campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity.
These may be a decent measure of trends.
• Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election
day.
• Deliberative polls--a new kind of poll first tried in 1996.
A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600)
were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and
presentations about issue clusters including foreign
affairs, the family, and the economy.
• A deliberative poll attempts to measure what the public
would think if they had better opportunities to
thoughtfully consider the issues first.