Transcript New Trends

LAW FOR THE FUTURE
LEFIS General Assembly
Firenze 10-11 February 2006
RNDr.Bohumír Štědroň, CSc
Faculty of Informatics and Management
Univerzita Hradec Kralove, CZECH REPUBLIC
[email protected]
The new forecasting method: the recursive triangle
LAW FOR THE FUTURE
By Bohumir Stedron
New Trends:
What are the new trends shaping the Future?
Technology development is accelerating and an
increasing number of new fields are being created
and exploding new ideas onto the market. We can
face new words such as hyper regulated society, the
latent legal market, virtual private networks,
convergence of computers and television, global
telecommunications, legal service emerging as an
information service, convergence of ICT and Artificial
Intelligence and many others.
The new forecasting procedure: the
recursive triangle:
The Future consists of three “triangle”
components:
-Trends
-Discontinuities
-Top Decision
Trends can be analyzed by using usual
mathematical and statistical techniques.
Discontinuities represent general or partial
negation of trends. Top Decision
(Manhattan or Apollo projects for example) can
be simulated by artificial neural network.
By using these three triangle procedures
recursively like in GPS (Newell, Shaw, Simon
and Ernst), we obtain so called Search Trees:
the possible scenarios incorporating new trends
and discontinuities.
The possible scenarios :
What's next for Law and Artificial Intelligence
development and applications? Here are a few
possible scenarios incorporating new trends
and discontinuities.
The Age of Merging (2010-2020)
The United States, Germany, Japan, France,
Ireland, Finland,
and China represent the leading countries in
high technology R&D.
All laws enacted by legislatures in Washington
and Brussels
rely heavily on AI-based expert systems.
Intelligent computers and telecommunication networks
allow
voice command for 3-D Internet, radio and television,
mobile phones,
medical care, and other services.
Intelligent computers and telecommunication networks
dominate
the pedagogical process. As information technologies,
biotechnologies, and
nanotechnologies merge, so do the scientific
disciplines developing
them.
Direct human-Internet communication is made
possible with an
implanted chip (later, without chips).
New discoveries lead to quantum and DNA computers,
as well as new materials incorporating low levels of
intelligence.
Antiviral programs destroy the occurrence of artificial
life
in order to avoid chaos like the blackouts that rocked
Canada and the United States in August 2003.
 New
laws are enacted to guarantee better health and
vastly improved social well being as AI development
accelerates. For example,
laws will protect against electromagnetic smog,
regulate the use of home
robots, protect data more stringently, prohibit the use
of computer technologies in some segments of culture
and arts (to avoid the domination of synthetic TV
celebrities, for instance), and prohibit the
construction of computer programs with selfpreservation instincts.
Age of AI Self-Reliance (2020-2030)
Intelligent computers and telecommunications
networks manage
their own repairs, scientific research, and production.
New materials incorporate high levels of intelligence.
Direct communication among humans, computers,
and cetaceans is
possible using implanted chips (later, without chips).
New laws recognize human rights for some robots.
The Non-Mysterious Age (2030-2040)
A new, holographic model of the world replaces the
geometrical one.
AI systems mine holographic information from the
environment.
New explanations and applications emerge for
mysterious phenomena, such as extrasensory
perception and the use of energy fields
in medicine and the military (bioenergy and/or
psychotronics).
AI makes it possible to create a copy of any human
being's intellect; laws regulating and protecting these
copies quickly follow.
 In
connection with the above facts and predictions,
only a system of new laws can guarantee better health
and much better social well-being:
 -Prohibition of the construction of computer programs
with instinct of self-preservation;
 -Law for protection against electromagnetic smog;
 -Law for protection against civilizations diseases;
 -Law regulation the usage of robots and biosphere;
 -Regulation of using ICT in some segments of culture
and arts.
Summarizing the current results and new trends,
seems obvious that the radical changes of the whole
legal and political system have already started... Only
setting the parameters of the legislative system
(for example transforming the Office for Personal Data
Protection to Office for Human Identity Protection)
will resolve whether we will become rather Borgs from
the Star Trek or independent citizens.
 Gidley
M.J.,Hampson G.P.: The evolution of futures in
school education,
Futures 37,2005 pp.255-271
 Katsh E.,Rifkin J.:Online Dispute Resolution, JosseyBass, San Francisco, 2001
 Newel, A Simon H.A.:(1961) Computer Simulation of
human thinking.Science,vol.134,pp.2011-2017
Potůček, M. et al.: Manuál prognostickým metod,
Praha 2006
 Stedron,B.: Forecasts for Artificial Intelligence,
FUTURIST, March-April 2004
 Stedron,B.: Künstliche Intelligenz, Zukünfte 49/2005
Berlin 2005