Transcript IS for decision making

Using Information
Systems for
Decision Making
(Week 13, Thursday 4/5/2007)
BUS3500 - Abdou Illia, Spring 2007
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LEARNING GOALS
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Explain the decision-making process.
Describe decision support systems.
Explain how Group Decision Support Systems work.
Describe executive information systems.
Describe Expert Systems and Knowledge Work systems.
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Recall from previous classes
Types of Information Systems:
Top
Management
Office
Office
workers
workers
-
Transaction Processing Systems
Office Automation Systems
Knowledge Work Systems
Management Information Systems
Decision Support Systems
Executive Information Systems
Middle Management
Office
workers
Knowledge
workers
Office
workers
Questions
Lower Management
Operational workers
Q: What kind of IS are designed to provide help for decision makers?
Q: What criteria we should look at to distinguish between (1) IS for decision
making and (2) other IS?
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Systems for Decision Making
Task structure Degree of
level
repetitiveness
Unstructured
Type of Information System used
EIS, KWS
Non-repetitive
DSS
Semi-structured
TPS
Structured
Repetitive
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Systems for Decision Making
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Decision support systems (DSS) are one tool
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A computer-based system that supports and improves
human decision making
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Helps middle managers analyze complex problems
Group decision support systems (GDSS)
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Executive information system (EIS)
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Tool for supporting team decision making
Computer-based system that supports the decisionmaking processes of senior managers
Knowledge Work Systems (KWS)
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Computer-based system that supports the decisionmaking processes of Knowledge workers
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The Decision-Making Process
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Simon’s model of the decision-making
process
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Intelligence
Design
Choice
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Intelligence Phase
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Scan the environment
for a problem.
Determine if decisionmaker can solve the
problem.
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Within their scope of
influence?
Fully define the
problem by gathering
more information
about the problem.
Data source
Scan Environment for
problem to be solved
or decision to be made
Problem ?
No
MIS
END
Yes
Problem within
scope of influence?
No
END
Yes
Gather more information
about the problem
Internal &
External
data
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Design Phase
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Develop a model of
the problem.
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Determine type of
model.
Verify model.
 Develop and
analyze potential
solutions.
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Develop a model of
problem to be solved
Verify that the
model is accurate
Develop potential
solutions
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Choice Phase
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Select the solution to implement.
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More detailed analysis of selected solutions
might be needed.
Verify initial conditions.
Analyze proposed solution against real-world
constraints.
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Decision Support Systems
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Designed to help individual
managers make decisions
Major components
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Data management subsystem
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Model management subsystem
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Internal and external data sources
Typically mathematical in nature
User
Interface
Model Management
- Sensitivity Analysis
-> What-if Analysis
-> Goal-seeking Analysis
User interface
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How the people interact with the DSS
Data visualization is the key
 Text
 Graphs
 Charts
Data Management
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Transactional Data
Data warehouse
Business partners data
Economic data
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Modeling Tools and Techniques
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Simulation is used to examine proposed solutions
and their impact
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Sensitivity analysis
 Determine how changes in one part of the model influence
other parts of the model
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What-if analysis
 Manipulate variables to see what would happen in given
scenarios
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Goal-seeking analysis
 Work backward from desired outcome
11to
Determine monthly payment given various interest Works backward from a given monthly payment
rates.
determine various loans that would give that payment.
Groups Decision Support Systems
Designed to support groups make decisions
with the help of a Group Facilitator
 GDSS Tools:
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Brainstorming tools: Allow users enter ideas simultaneously & anonymously
Commenter tools: Allow users to anonymously comment on others’ ideas
Categorizing tools: Groups ideas into categories
Idea-ranking tools: Ranks ideas. Identify the best ones.
Electronic-voting tools: Allow users to vote for their favorite ideas.
Front Screen
GDSS tools
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Executive Information Systems
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Computer-based tool that specifically
helps top-level management make
strategic decisions
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Processes both internal and external data
Presents data in summary form
Drill-down is a key feature – gives the
manager the ability to see more details when
needed
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KWS: Expert Systems
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Artificial Intelligence systems that codify human
expertise in a computer system
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Main goal is to transfer knowledge from one person to
another
Wide range of subject areas
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Medical diagnosis
Computer purchasing
Knowledge engineer elicits the expertise from the expert
and encodes it in the expert system
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Expert Systems Components
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Knowledge base: database of the expertise, often in IF THEN rules.
Inference engine: derives recommendations from knowledge base and
problem-specific data
User interface: controls the dialog between the user and the system
Explanation system: Explain the how and why of recommendations
User
Domain
Expert
Expertise
Knowledge
Engineer
Encoded
expertise
Knowledge
base
Example of rules
User
Interface
Inference
Engine
Explanation
System
System
Engineer
IF
family is albatross AND
color is white
THEN
bird is laysan albatross.
IF
family is albatross AND
color is dark
THEN
bird is black footed albatross
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Other KWS
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Neural networks – use software to simulate the
neural working of the human brain
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Intelligent agents (bots) – autonomously handle
tasks for humans and act on user’s behalf
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Genetic algorithms – Computer instructions that
create a population of thousands on potential
solutions and evolves the population toward
better solutions
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Fuzzy logic – a way to get computers to come
closer to the ability to see fine distinctions, not
just ones and zeros
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Summary Questions
Malaga
Notes
1) What are the steps of a decision making process
according to the Simon’s model? Explain each step.
6-9
2) (a) What are the major components in a DSS? (b)
What is the function of each?
10
3) (a) What is the difference between a DSS and a
GDSS? What is a Group facilitator? What are the main
tools used in a GDSS to help users reach a decision?
4) What is an EIS? What is the difference between a
DSS and an EIS?
5) What is an Expert System? What are the main
components of an Expert system? What is a
knowledge engineer?
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14
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