Transcript 0324536380_77815

8
CHAPTER
Marketing Research and
Sales Forecasting
Chapter Objectives
1 Describe the
development of the
marketing research
function and its major
activities.
4 Explain the different
sampling techniques
used by marketing
researchers.
6 Explain the challenges
of conducting
marketing research in
global markets.
5 Identify the methods by Outline the most
which marketing
7 important uses of
2 Explain the steps in the
marketing research
researchers collect
computer technology in
process.
primary data.
marketing research.
3 Distinguish between
primary and secondary
data and identify the
sources of each type.
Identify the major types
of forecasting methods.
8
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
• Marketing research Process of collecting and using
information for marketing decision making.
• Marketers use data from a variety of sources to
understand customers, target customer segments, and
develop long-term customer relationships.
• Research is the primary source of information used
to make effective marketing decisions.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
THE MARKETING RESEARCH FUNCTION
• Research is central to understanding effective customer satisfaction and
customer relationship programs.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH
FUNCTION
• First organized marketing research conducted in 1879 by N.W. Ayer.
• Second milestone was founding by Charles C. Parlin in 1911 of the
nation’s first commercial research department at Curtis Publishing, publisher
of The Saturday Evening Post.
• Counted Campbell’s Soup cans in the garbage in selected
Philadelphia neighborhoods to persuade that company to advertise
with the publication.
• Research methods grew more sophisticated in the 1930s with better
sampling techniques and greater accuracy.
• Computer technology has significantly advanced market research.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
WHO CONDUCTS MARKETING RESEARCH?
• Size and form of research often tied to corporate structure.
• Many firms outsource research needs.
• Major U.S. marketing research firms include ACNielsen
and Arbitron.
Syndicated Services
• Organizations that regularly provide a standardized set
of data to all customers.
Full-Service Research Suppliers
• Firm that conducts complete marketing research projects.
Limited-Service Research Suppliers
• Firm that specializes in a limited number of activities, such as conducting
field interviews or performing data processing.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION MEASUREMENT
PROGRAMS
• Firms often focus on tracking satisfaction levels of current customers.
• Also analyze partial or complete dissatisfaction to identify problem areas
that need attention.
• Organizations may outsource these studies or conduct them themselves.
• Example: Environmental Protection Agency has posted a customer
satisfaction questionnaire on its Web site.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS
• Usually follows a six-step process.
DEFINE THE PROBLEM
• Well-defined problems are half-solved.
• Avoid confusing symptoms with problem itself.
• Loss of market share is a symptom;
reason for the loss is the problem.
• Evaluate firm’s marketing mix and possible
changes to the marketing environment.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
CONDUCT EXPLORATORY RESEARCH
• Exploratory research Process of discussing a
marketing problem with informed sources both
within and outside the firm and examining
information from secondary sources.
Using Internal Data
• Research from customer surveys and
demographic data.
• Sales analysis can compare expected
sales with actual sales and be analyzed in a
variety of ways, such as by customer type,
sales method, and others.
• Accounting data provides information about
financial issues.
• Marketing cost analysis evaluates expenses for
a variety of costs.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
FORMULATE A HYPOTHESIS
• A tentative explanation for some specific event.
• Sets the stage for more in-depth research.
CREATE A RESEARCH DESIGN
• A master plan or model for conducting research.
• Must ensure it will measure what researchers
intend to measure.
COLLECT DATA
• Secondary data Previously published information.
• Primary data Information collected specifically
for the investigation at hand.
• Primary costs more to gather but can be much
more valuable.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
INTERPRET AND PRESENT RESEARCH
INFORMATION
• Present in a format that allows managers to
make effective judgments.
• Researchers and end users must collaborate to
ensure effectiveness of research.
• Reports must be clear and concise.
• Must explain technical terminology.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
MARKETING RESEARCH METHODS
SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION
• Secondary data comes from many sources.
• Can be internal data or external data.
Government Data
• Nation’s most important source of marketing data.
• U.S. Census provides data about very small segments, as few as 1,500
people.
• TIGER system overlays topographic features—such as railroads,
highways, and rivers—with census data such as household income.
• State and city governments also provide valuable data.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Private Data
• Variety of sources:
• Trade associations.
• Business and trade magazines.
• Information gathered from scanning technology.
• Increasing use of radio-frequency identification for inventory
control.
Online Sources of Secondary Data
• Online databases.
• Research aggregators acquire, catalog, reformat, segment, and resell
premium research reports.
• Examples: Datamonitor and eMarketer.
• Internet discussion groups, chat rooms, and newsgroups.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SAMPLING TECHNIQUES
• Sampling Process of selecting survey respondents or research participants.
• Population—total group of people a researcher wants to study.
• Researchers rarely sample the entire population.
• Probability sample Sample that gives every member of the population a
chance of being selected.
• Simple random sample—every member of relevant group has
equal opportunity to be sampled.
• Stratified sample—randomly selected subsamples of different
groups are represented in the total sample.
• Cluster sample—researchers select subgroups from which they
sample.
• Nonprobability sample Sample that involves personal judgment
somewhere in the process.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
PRIMARY RESEARCH METHODS
• Choice of method depends on the issues under study and the decisions
marketers need to make.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Observation Method
• Researchers view the overt actions of subjects being studied.
• Example: Counting the number of cars that pass by a potential
restaurant location.
• Use increasingly sophisticated ways of tracking behavior.
• Electronic devices that measure media consumption.
• In response to digital video recording, Nielsen Media Research has
changed the way it reports television viewership.
• Videotaping consumers is gaining acceptance.
Interpretive Research
• Interpretive research Observational research method developed by social
anthropologists in which customers are observed in their natural setting and
their behavior is interpreted based on an understanding of social and cultural
characteristics; also known as ethnography, or “going native.”
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SURVEY METHOD
• Researchers must ask questions to get information on
attitudes, motives, and opinions.
Telephone Interviews
• Quick and inexpensive way of getting a small
quantity of relatively impersonal information.
• Many people refuse to take part or are reluctant
to give personal information over the phone.
• Not a viable option in international markets where
phone usage is rare.
Personal Interviews
• Allow researchers to obtain detailed information and ask follow-up
questions.
• May use mall intercepts, interviews conducted in shopping malls.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Focus Groups
• Focus group Simultaneous personal interview of a small group of
individuals, which relies on group discussion about a certain topic.
• Encourage general discussion of a selected topic.
• Valuable for exploratory research, such as new product development.
• Drawback is potential lack of honesty due to peer pressure.
• Researchers are experimenting with online focus groups.
Mail Surveys
• Cost-effective means that allows respondents anonymity.
• Response rates typically lower than for personal interviews and are timeconsuming.
• May be subject to bias through self-selection.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Fax Surveys
• Limited household use makes getting a good sample difficult.
• Federal junk fax law limits fax transmissions for commercial purposes.
Online Surveys and Other Internet-Based Methods
• Allows researchers to speed the survey process, increase sample sizes,
ignore geographic boundaries, and dramatically reduce costs.
• Marketers are experimenting with Web questionnaires and electronic
bulletin boards.
• No standard has developed for measuring Web use.
• Some software can monitor a user’s viewing habits and display targeted
banner ads.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Experimental Method
• Least used method.
• Controlled experiment—a scientific investigation in which a researcher
controls or manipulates a test group and compares the results with those of a
control group.
• Most common use is for test marketing—introducing a new product in a
specific area and then observing its degree of success.
• Can be expensive and allow competitors to learn about new products
quickly.
• Alternatives include computer modeling software, regional product
launches, and limiting product to a single retail outlet to allow for careful
evaluation.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL MARKETING
RESEARCH
• Follow same basic steps as for domestic marketing research.
• U.S. Department of Commerce offers reports and guides about almost
every country in the world.
• Export America and Overseas Business Reports.
• Researchers must be aware of cultural and legal environments.
• May have to adapt research methods to local conditions.
• Example: Focus groups may be difficult to organize in countries
where violence and kidnapping are common.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
INTERPRETIVE RESEARCH
• Provides insight into consumer behavior and the ways consumers interact
with brands.
• Researcher spends time studying the culture, called ethnographic research.
• Focus is on understanding the meaning of the product or consumption in
the consumer’s life.
• Cost is higher than other forms of research.
• Captures what consumers actually do, not just what they say they do.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY IN
MARKETING RESEARCH
MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEMS (MIS)
• A planned, computer-based system designed to provide decision makers
with a continuous flow of information relevant to their areas of
responsibility.
• Well-constructed MIS is the company’s nerve center because it continually
monitors marketing environment and provides instantaneous information.
MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (MDSSs)
• Marketing decision support system (MDSS) Marketing information
system component that links a decision maker with relevant databases and
analysis tools.
• Develops raw data into information useful for decision making.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
DATA MINING
• The process of searching through computerized data files to detect patterns.
• Focuses on identifying relationships that are not obvious to marketers.
• Efficient way to sort through huge amounts of data and make sense of it.
• Example: NACCO Industries uses data mining to scan warranty
claims for common problems.
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
• Process of gathering information and analyzing it to improve business
strategy, tactics, and daily operations.
COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
• A form of business intelligence that focuses on finding information about
competitors using published sources, interviews, observations by
salespeople and suppliers in the industry, and other sources.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SALES FORECASTING
• Sales forecast Estimate of a firm’s revenue for a
specified time period.
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
TECHNIQUES
Jury of Executive Opinion
• Combines and averages the outlooks of top executives
from such areas as marketing, finance, production,
and purchasing.
Delphi Technique
• Solicits opinions from several people, but it also gathers input from experts
outside the firm rather than relying completely on company executives.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Sales Force Composite
• Develops forecasts based on the belief that organization members closest
to the marketplace offer the best insights concerning short-term future sales.
• Typically works from the bottom up.
Survey of Buyer Intentions
• Gathers input through mail-in questionnaires, online feedback, telephone
polls, and personal interviews to determine the purchasing intentions of a
representative group of present and potential customers.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
Test Markets
• Gauges consumer responses to a new product under
actual marketplace conditions.
• Allows researchers to evaluate the effects of different
prices, alternative promotional strategies, and other
marketing mix variations.
Trend Analysis
• Develops forecasts for future sales by analyzing the
historical relationship between sales and time.
Exponential Smoothing
• Sophisticated method of trend analysis that weighs each year’s sales data,
giving greater weight to results from the most recent years.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting