Transcript MODELLING OF RUNOFF FORMATION PROCESSES FOR THE …

Assessment of Runoff Engineering Characteristics in
Conditions of the Shortage of Hydrometeorological
Data in North-Eastern Russia
O.M. Semenova
State Hydrological Institute; Gidrotehproekt Ltd, St. Petersburg, Russia
L.S. Lebedeva
St. Petersburg State University; Nansen Centre, St.Petersburg, Russia
I.N. Beldiman
"Khotugu Oruster" (the North Rivers), Yakutsk, Russia
Hydrograph Model Research Group
St. Petersburg, Russia
www.hydrograph-model.ru
Agenda
• Tasks of geotechnical site investigations and
construction in rich by natural resources North-East of
Russia
• Poor
hydrometeorological
network
which
significantly diminished in the last 20 years
• Observed environmental changes which
differently in various permafrost landscapes
• Permafrost
processes
as
the
factor
governing
was
impact
hydrological
Statistical approach based on
extrapolation of observational data and
currently used in design engineering
practice is not reliable any more
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Goal
To develop unified approach (modelling tool) for
assessment of design flood characteristics in changing
environment which may be applied in various permafrost
conditions
Requirements to the model
• Process-oriented deterministic model
• Physically observable parameters with the possibility
to estimate them a priori and systematize by typical
landscapes
• Ability to port parameters to ungauged watersheds
without calibration
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Research strategy
Historical
re-analysis
Physically
observable
parameters
Stochastic
weather
generator
Series of daily
meteorological data
Ensembles of
climate
projections
Deterministic
hydrological model
Series of
simulated
runoff
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Numerical
evaluation of
runoff
characteristics
in probabilistic
mode
Variety of landscapes and complex process interactions
Bare rocks
Bush tundra
Deep active layer,
Subsurface runoff
Larch forest
Shallow active layer,
surface runoff
Riparian vegetation
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Common approaches for permafrost hydrology modelling
Large scale
hydrological models
(LSS) integrated into
climate modelling
systems
Crude representation
of processes without
their specification in
different conditions
The output values for
runoff and variable
states are averaged
by large territories
Development of
refined physicallybased models of
specific processes
OR
Calibration-based,
require specific data
Applicable in very
limited cases
Both not reliable in assessment of runoff characteristics
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The Hydrograph Model
 Process-based (explicitly
includes all processes)
 Observable parameters,
no calibration (can be obtained
apriori)
 Common input daily data
(air temperature and moisture,
precipitation)
 Free of scale problem
(from soil column
initially developed by Prof. Yury Vinogradov
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to large basin)
cm
Typical landscapes
10
Bush tundra
Larch forest
20
Bare rocks
Sparse forest
30
40
50
cm
60
10
70
20
80
30
90
40
100
Soil horizons:
50
moss and lichen
60
70
peat
80
clay inclusion of rocks
90
bedrock
100
moss and lichen
peat
clay inclusion of rocks
bedrock
Physical properties of the soils driving
the processes of active layer formation
Density, kg/m3
Porosity, %
Water holding
capacity, %
Infiltration coefficient,
mm/min
Heat capacity, J/kg*0C
Heat conductivity,
W/m*0C
Wilting point, %
Moss and
lichen
Peat
500
90
60
1720
80
20-40
10
0.0005
0.05-1
1930
0.8
0.00050.5
1930
0.8
840
1.2
750
1.5
8
6-8
4
2-3
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Clay with Bedrock
inclusion of
rocks
2610
2610
55
35
13
7
Results of modelling active layer dynamics
Simulated (pink) and observed (black) thawing depths in the larch forest site, m
0
м
-0.5
-1
simulated
observed
-1.5
01.1981
01.1982
01.1983
наблюденная
17.5
рассч итанная
175
01.1984
Simulated (green) and observed (black) thawing depths in the bare rock site, m
0
м
-0.5
-1
simulated
observed
-1.5
07.1963
01.1964
07.1964
рассч итанная
9
01.1965
07.1965
наблюденная
9
01.1966
Results of runoff modelling
at the Kolyma water-balance station watersheds
0.10
0.08
Yuzhny Creek, 0.27 km2, 1978, m3/s
Sparse forest
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
06.1978
07.1978
Наблюденный
0.10
0.08
м3/с
05.1978
0.06
08.1978
09.1978
10.1978
Рассч итанный
Гидрографы
на малых
и картинки
Severny
Creek,
0.33водосборах
km2, 1979,
m3/s
Bush tundra
0.04
0.02
0.00
06.1979
08.1979
Наблюденный
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10.1979
Рассч итанный
0.4
0.3
Morozova Creek, 0.63 km2, 1977, m3/s
Bare rock
0.2
0.1
0
04.1977
06.1977
06.1977
08.1977
Наблюденный
Наблюденный
08.1977
10.1977
10.1977
Рассчитанный
Рассчитанный
Kontaktovy Creek, 21.2 km2, 1978, m3/s
8
8
м3/с
Landscape distribution:
6
Bare rock – 32 %
Bush tundra – 294 %
Sparse forest – 21
%
2
Larch forest – 18 %
м3/с
77
Results of runoff modelling
at the Kolyma water-balance station watersheds
0
6
4
2
0
04.1978
04.1978
06.1978
06.1978
08.1978
12
08.1978
Verification of the modelling results on poorly studied
basins
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Results of runoff modelling at poorly gauged basins
The Ayan-Yuryakh river, 9560 км2, 1978-1979.
1200
1000
1000
800
800
м3/с
1200
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
05.1978
07.1978
Наблюденный
09.1978
11.1978
05.1979
07.1979
Наблюденный
Рассчитанный
09.1979
11.1979
Рассчитанный
The Tenke river, 1820 км2, 1978-1979.
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
м3/с
400
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
05.1978
07.1978
Наблюденный
09.1978
11.1978
05.1979
Рассчитанный
07.1979
Наблюденный
09.1979
Рассчитанный
Mountainous relief and absence of meteorological stations. Input
data were interpolated from stations located outside the basin
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11.1979
Extrapolation of observed runoff series with simulations
using historical meteorological data
1400
1400
Detrin river, 5630 км2, 1978-1979
Two meteostations within basin
1200
1200
1000
1000
м 3/с
800
600
800
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
05.1978
07.1978
2. 5
09.1978
Наблюденный
2
1. 5
1
0. 5
0
11.1978
05.1979
Рассчитанный
- 0. 5
-1
- 1. 5
-2
07.1979
- 2. 5
-3
Наблюденный
09.1979
11.1979
Рассчитанный
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
0 .4
1
2
4
6
9
15
25
рассчитанный
simulated
40
55
P, %
70
80
88
94
97
9 9 .2
9 9 .8
observed
наблюденный
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The Ayan-Yuryakh river,
9560 км2.
Distribution curves of
maximum discharges:
Observed 1977-1984
Simulated 1957-1984
Estimation of maximum runoff distribution curves using
stochastic weather generator
The Tenke River basin, 2.2 km from the mouth of the Nilkoba River (1820 km2)
1 – observed; 2 – simulated on the basis of available historical data; 3 the 1000-year-long series obtained on the basis of DS-modeling
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Conclusions
• The
Hydrograph
Model
demonstrates
adequate
representation of permafrost processes in terms of active
layer and runoff dynamics
• Good agreement between observed and simulated active
layer depth and runoff is achieved for small watersheds of
the KWBS
• Developed set of model parameters which are systematized
according to main landscapes of the Upper Kolyma River
basin may be successfully transferred to other basins without
specific observations
• The Hydrograph model may be applied as a practical tool to
estimate runoff characteristics using any source of
meteorological data such as historical observations, reanalysis, future climate model projections
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Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the support of the TICOP’s organizers,
sponsors and PYRN for the provided opportunity to attend the
Conference.
Thank you for attention!
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