Transcript HV 2010 Panel Discussion

HydroVision International
WHAT PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES
SHOULD A DAM OWNER TAKE IN CASE OF
CLIMATE CHANGE?
July 27, 2010
Charlotte, NC USA
Is The Climate Changing?
The climate is always changing and we are accustomed
to planning for and adapting to it
Runoff - more in dry season and
less wet season

 Western snowpacks are smaller
and melting earlier
 Ivie Reservoir - 27% less yield
 Canadian River – 80% reduction in
runoff / rainfall ratio
Climate Change Misunderstood?
Amazon.com has 6,439 books on the subject
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IS CREATING
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUR WATER
SUPPLIES…
Considerable uncertainty in the science of
prediction of hydrologic impacts and the
impacts are regionally variable
Non-Climatic Factors ADD to Uncertainties
 Population growth and migration
 Technology decreasing water usage
 Technology allowing use of previously unusable water
 Pricing framework decreasing water usage
 Changes in governance of water resources
POSSIBLE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
Streamflow
 Decrease or Increase ?
 Greater Extremes ?
 Snowmelt & Runoff Timing
 Decrease Flow from Snow and Glaciers
Evapotranspiration Increases
Water Quality
 Higher Water Temperatures ?
 Runoff from Wildfire Zones
 Evaporation Concentration Dissolved
Solids
 Increased Point and Non-Point Pollution
NO REGRETS APPROACH
Regret Over Investment
Regret Under Investment
No Regrets Approach
To Accommodate Unknown Future Conditions Plan for the Future,
but Review Frequently and Take Action When Needed
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Learn to Adapt to Unknown Changes

•
•
No different from founders of ICOLD a century ago
No Regrets approach
Changes Could Be:

•
•
Changes in water quality
More or less streamflow

NO SINGLE APPROACH TO
ADAPTATION

Non-Climatic Factors Could
ADD to Uncertainties
HydroVision International
WHAT PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES
SHOULD A DAM OWNER TAKE IN CASE OF
CLIMATE CHANGE?
July 27, 2010
Charlotte, NC USA
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS