Transcript increase in water resources deficit

Assessment of Vulnerability
on the Aral See Basin
NATALYA AGALTSEVA
Research Hydrometeorological
institute (NIGMI)
Uzhydromet
Uzbekistan
Aral See Basin
The river runoff is concentrated in two largest transboundary rivers: the Amudarya (78.5
km3 per year) and Syrdarya (37.1 km3 per year), which run down from the mountains to
the plains, cross the deserts and flow into the Aral Sea
Climate change
Change of mean annual temperature in Uzbekistan
2.00
1.50
There is a tendency to
increasing of the air
temperature and changes in
length of cold and hot year
seasons for the Central Asia
territory;
 Climate dryness becomes
more severe;
1.00
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
Change of annual sums of precipitation
in Uzbekistan
200
150
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
50
1937
100
1933
percent of norms 1961 – 1990
There are significant
variations of precipitation
under their slow tendency to
increasing.
Different reaction of runoff
forming and runoff
dissemination zones to the
recent climate changes and
anthropogenic impacts takes
place.
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
-2.50
1937
-2.00
1933
∆t
0.50
Water resources
• possible threat - increase in water
resources deficit;
• decrease in snow reserves in the
mountains;
• glaciers degradation, increase in
contribution of glacier runoff to the
Increase in fresh water resources
rivers;
deficit due to the current and
• increase in the number of glacier
expected climate change in the
lakes (short-term prospect);
Aral Sea basin
• decrease in river runoff as
glaciers are melted (long-term
prospect);
• population growth, increase in
water demand stemmed from a
higher living standard.
Our assessments have shown:
There is a tendency to decreasing of the snow
supplies;
• Glaciers continue to be reduced at rates of 0,2
% - 1 % per year;
• Increase in evaporation in the river basins;
• Increase in variability of precipitation and
intensification of all factors for the years with
drought
• With the further increase of air temperatures
the river runoff decreases.
Water resources
300
Pskem
Shahimardan
Soh
Isfara
250
200
150
100
50
0
1957
1980
2000
2030
2050
2080
•Rivers of the Amu
Darya river basin and
small rivers are more
sensitive to climate
warming
• It is expected that
runoff variability of all
basins will go up.
Our assessments have shown
Increase in risk of water related
hazardous phenomena:
• increase in risk of glacier lakes
break;
• possible increase in risk of
drought;
• increase in mudflow danger and
damage impaired by mudflows;
300 0
250 0
м3 /с
200 0
150 0
100 0
50 0
0
19 60
197 0
19 80
1990
20 00
Water resources
• Frequency of severe
draughts in the Aral Sea
area has increased
• During the draught years
quality of the surface
waters worsens according
to mineralization and
microbiological indices
•Adverse conditions are
observed in the
downstream during the
years with hydrological
droughts.
Agricultural sector
Our assessments have shown:
Climate change impact on sustainable
development of the agricultural sector
associated with irrigated farming:
 increase in irrigation rates;
 increase in salinity of irrigated lands;
 decrease in productivity of modern sorts of
crops;
 strengthening of air draught and increase
in extremely high temperatures occurrence.
 increase in repeatability of the dangerous
meteorological phenomena (heavy
precipitation in spring, hailstones), probability
remains of crops exposure to frosts)
Expected increase of evaporation under
conditions of climate warming will increase
water losses in the irrigated areas that entail
increase in water demand there.
Climate change will increase water deficit for
irrigation needs under current situation in
irrigation.
•
Water quality
Our assessments have shown:
Water contamination, change in
its chemical composition and
properties that lead to the quality
loss:
100
Mineralization
% от N
80
 increase in mineralization of lake water
and change in its within-year fluctuation
during the years with low water.
 increase in mineralization of river
water in the area of intensive runoff
consumption;
60
40
20
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1
2
Объм (куб.км)
1080
1200
1000
800
600
400
993
940
779
616
430
299
230
142
200
0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
105
 Water ecosystem degradation
and strengthening the Aral Sea
crisis.
 Strengthening the process of
desertification.
 Biodiversity loss.
Adaptation strategies and measures
 Improvement of water
resources management
system;
 water saving and rational
water consumption;
 institutional development in
the field of water consumption
and supply;
improvement of irrigation
technology
increase in efficiency of
forest management
 national and transboundary
aspects of adaptation.
Definition of the uniform
transboundary concept of
water consumption in the
conditions of expected
hydrological drought
Early warning system of
drought
Development of monitoring
of mudflows, outbreaking
lakes and avalanche
Development of insurance
system against drought and
dangerous phenomena
Thank you for attention