Transcript TSCAPE: A Time Series of Consistent Accounts for Policy

TSCAPE: A Time Series of Consistent
Accounts for Policy Evaluation
Edward J. Balistreri
Alan K. Fox
U.S. International Trade Commission
Washington, DC
Introduction
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Construct consistent social accounts for
United States
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Cover 1978 to 2001
Aggregate to two-digit SIC level
Draw on variety of data sources
Calibrate data for internal consistency
Preserve integrity of trade, GDP data
Data Sources for TSCAPE:
U.S. Department of Commerce
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Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
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Value added by factor and sector (approx. 2-digit)
Benchmark IO tables (1982, 1987, 1992, 1997)
National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA)
Trade Policy Information System (TPIS)
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Trade by TSUS, Schedule B (1978-1988)
Trade by HTS 10-digit (1989-2001)
Scope of TSCAPE
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Defined by quantity index for GDP by industry
(GDPI)
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Available at 2-digit level
From 1977 to present
Defined by TPIS
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Highly disaggregated
Available from 1978 to present
Discontinuity in Trade Data
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1978 to 1988: TSUS, Sch. B to SIC 4 digit
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1989 to 2001: HTS10 to SIC 4 digit
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Based on DOC concordance
Only half of lines originally mapped to SIC
DOC concordance substantially revised and
extended by authors
DOC concordance used unchanged
No handshake between TSUS and HTS10
Discontinuity between 1988 and 1989
TSCAPE Use Matrix Architecture
Final
Demand
Merchandise
Trade
Use
Srv
Trade
Goods
Industry
Factors
.
Value Added
Gross
Output
C+I+G
Gross
Make
TSCAPE Make Matrix Architecture
Industries
Goods
Make
Gross
Make
Gross
Output
Construction of Social Accounts
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Calculate real GDPi  qVAi  GDPi1996
Complete VA matrix with GDPI data on factor
payment shares by industry
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Calculate real intermediate purchases by sector
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If qUse available, TgtUseg ,i  qUsei  Useg1996
,i
If not, use interpolated BEA IO data
Build Make matrix
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Aggregate GDP is then consistent with NIPA
Convert to coefficients, interpolate
Multiply by real gross output from GDPI
Calculate final demand components
Establish Consistency
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Value added matrix: no changes
Merchandise trade: no changes
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Minimize loss function subject to
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Zero profit condition
No excess demand
Income balance
Optimization Problem: Variables
Free Variables
GOi
Gross output by industry
IUseg,d
Final demand by commodity and category (except trade)
Φi
Scalar for total intermediate demand by industry
Fixed Parameters
TgtIUseg,d Target final demand by commodity and category
TgtUseg,i Target intermediate use of commodity by industry
Tgtξd
Aggregate final demand mix from NIPA accounts
Optimization Problem: Specification
g  d  TGTIUSEg ,d
  g  i  TGTUSEg ,i

1
1
2
 IUSEg ,d  TGTIUSEg ,d  

 i TGTUSEg ,i  TGTUSEg ,i  2 

  d  TGT d   g TGTIUSEg ,d

1

  TGTIUSE
g
g ,d
 TGT d   g TGTIUSEg ,d
Subject to
GOi  g i TGTUSEg ,i    f ValueAdded f ,i 
i MakeCoefi, g  GOi   i i  TGTUSEg ,i   d IUSEg ,d 
d g IUSEg ,d    f i ValueAdded f ,i 
 
2
Resulting Baseline
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Labor’s value share of GDP averages 58%
Imports’ share of GDP grew from 7% to 16%
Exports’ share of GDP grew from 6% to 12%
Protection fell dramatically in some sectors
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Electronic Equipment (down by 86%)
Industrial Machinery (down by 88%)
Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
10000
9000
8000
Billions of 1996 dollars
7000
6000
Other Value Added
5000
4000
3000
2000
Labor Income
1000
0
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Aggregate Imports and Exports
Billions of 1996 Dollars
1600
1400
Billions of 1996 dollars
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
1988 1989 1990 1991
export
import
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Relative Growth of Trade and Income
Index, 1978 = 1.0
5
4.5
4
Index (1978 equals one)
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
GDP
1989
1990
Imports
1991
1992
Exports
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
For More Information
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[email protected]
http://www.georgetown.edu/faculty/ejb37/
[email protected]
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~alanfox