Transcript - Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR)

New strategy of ICIMOD and water
related activities
CORDEX South Asia science workshop
Kathmandu, Nepal
27-30th August 2013
Mandira Singh Shrestha
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Presentation outline

Water security in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region and climate change
impacts
 About ICIMOD
 Introduction
 New strategy
 Regional Programmes and Thematic Areas

River basin programme at ICIMOD
 Challenges, goals and objectives
 Examples: Flood disasters in the HKH region (HKH HYCOS),
Koshi basin, HICAP, Satellite rainfall estimate application
 Summary
Mountains matter
 Mountain ecosystems – a global resource
Vital for water, food, energy, forests, biodiversity
 Mountains are under pressure
 Mountain people offer solutions
Himalayan region: Source of 10
major river systems –the “water
tower” of Asia
Largest body of ice
outside the Polar
caps, the “Third
Pole”
Himalayan glaciers
are sources of
freshwater reserves
which provide
headwaters for major
river systems in Asia
Sustenance to about
1.3 billion people
4
Water security in HKH region
There is high spatial and temporal
variability in precipitation and
development of water
resources
 Pakistan: lowest per capita
water availability in Asia
 India: World’s largest
consumer of ground water
 Bangladesh: Geographically,
the south asian state most
vulnerable to water insecurity
 Bhutan and Nepal: water rich
but with spatial variation
 Afghanistan: Arid,
mountainous, poor water
infrastructure
High natural vulnerability in
mountains increased by:

Climate change and glacial
retreat

Unplanned, inappropriate or
inadequate infrastructure
development

Unsustainable natural resource
exploitation

Widespread poverty,
marginalisation & conflict
Climate change impacts in the
mountains
 Rate of warming is higher in the mountains than in the plains (Shrestha
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et al., 1999) and five times faster than warming globally (Lau et al.,
2006)
Glaciers and snow melt accelerated
Potential impacts on agriculture and ecosystems
“Too much and too little”
Increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) due to increased
volume of water in glacial lakes
Changing water availability downstream particularly during the lean flow
season
 Hydropower sector
 Water supply and irrigation
 Increased occurrence of floods and droughts
Role of snow and ice
UNEP, 2007
How much has the glaciers
retreated?
The glacier outlines derived from different time series
data (1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010)
 Langtang (-25%)
 Imja (-27%)
 Jhelum (-21.4%)
 Narayani (-26.2%)
 Manas (-21%)
Rate of change
varies with each
decade
Disasters in the Himalayas
(1979-2008)
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
One third of the disaster are floods
Pakistan floods: 2000 killed, 20 million
affected
Most floods are transboundary which requires
cooperation across borders
Uttarakhand disaster:
>5000 killed, millions affected
Intergovernmental, knowledge,
learning and enabling centre
Member Countries
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Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
China
India
Myanmar
Nepal
Pakistan
Vision, Mission, and Governance
Vision
Governance
Men, women, and children of
the Hindu Kush Himalayas
enjoy improved wellbeing in a
healthy mountain environment.
 Board of Governors (Government
representatives and independent
members)
 Programme Advisory Committee
 ICIMOD Support Group
 Finance Committee
Mission
To enable sustainable and
resilient mountain development
for improved and equitable
livelihoods through knowledge
and regional cooperation.
How does ICIMOD work?
 Bridge science with policies and practice and provides a regional
platform where policy makers, experts, planners, and practitioners
can exchange ideas and perspectives towards the achievement of
sustainable mountain development
 Facilitates knowledge exchange across the region
 Tailor international knowledge to the region’s needs
 Brings regional issues to the global stage
 Partnership with regional and international agencies.
ICIMOD’s strategic framework
(2013-2017)
Responding to the challenges of global change: enhancing resilience and
supporting adaptation of mountain communities.
ICIMOD’s regional programme
focus
Cryosphere – River basins:
 Cryosphere Monitoring, field observation,
customizing methodologies, regional cooperation.
(Macro)
Watersheds – Adaptation:
 Hazards, resources, ecosystem services, adaptive
research, training, networking. (Meso)
Livelihood – Resilience:
 Medicinal herbs, eco-tourism, livelihood options:
Networking NGOs. (Micro)
River basin management
programme
 Challenges: To manage the problem of too much
water in the wet season and too little water in the dry
season and the consequences for water-related
hazards and food, energy, and environmental security
 Goal: Improved integrated river basin management to
reduce physical vulnerabilities and improve food and
energy security for mountain and downstream
communities in the HKH region while recognizing
upstream interests
 Big question? How does climate change affect
Himalayan glaciers, rivers, atmosphere and through
these impacts, people of the Himalayas
World Hydrological Cycle
Observing System (WHYCOS)
WMO Global framework
 improve the basic
observation activities
 strengthen
international
cooperation
 promote free
exchange of
hydrometeorology
data and increase
scientific cooperation
WHYCOS's ultimate objective is to promote and facilitate the collection, analysis,
exchange, dissemination and use of water-related information, using modern
information technologies.
HKH-HYCOS: Setting up monitoring
stations and establishment of real-time
flood information systems
‘Making Information Travel Faster Than Flood Waters’
Establishment of a Regional
Flood Information System in the
HKH-Region - Timely exchange of
flood data and information through
an accessible and user friendly
platform
HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer,
training, and capacity building
Designing end-to-end flood
information system
Real time data acquisition and
transmission
Rainfall validation: CPC-RFE2.0:
23 July 2002 Bagmati
Modified RFE
Comparison of satellite products
Observed
RFE2.0 Modified
CPC_RFE2.0
CMORPH
GSMaP
TRMM 3B42
Satellite rainfall estimates:
16 June in and around Kedarnath
HICAP: Integrated policy and
user-relevant research
 The Himalaya Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) is
one of the collaborative, policy relevant project focused on
knowledge from and for local communities and for on the ground
impact.
 HICAP is an example of integrated research across the sciences
dedicated to identifying credible, legitimate, and salient adaptation
challenges and opportunities in the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya region.
HICAP: Key research questions
1.
2.
3.
What are the potential impacts (positive and negative) of climate change
and other drivers of change, and how can we enhance the capacity to
monitor them?
What are the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the socioeconomic systems?
What evidence based information on the potential, risks and
opportunities can be provided to the decisions makers in order to
increase the adaptive capacity of mountain people, especially women?
Koshi basin programme
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Objective 1: Development of new policy
relevant knowledge on how climatic and
socio-economic drivers impact on
ecosystem services and livelihoods of
dependent populations.
Objective 2: Develop and test
actionable adaptation pilots and
livelihood strategies considering their
efficacy and acceptability by various
socio-cultural and gender groups
Objective 3: Contribute to developing an
enabling environment for policy and
decision makers to create integrated,
innovative, equitable, inclusive and
effective responses to protect and
manage river basin ecosystems and to
reduce poverty in the frame of integrated
natural resources
Summary

ICIMOD works in partnerships with regional and international organizations

Facilitates knowledge exchange and a platform for regional cooperation

The new strategy aims to improve science quality and demonstrates
impacts through its regional programmes

ICIMOD is a member of the SC of MAIRS and takes the lead of the
mountain group
 Joint workshops and conferences – June 2012 meeting in Pokhara,
CORDEX South Asia workshop in August 2013
 Knowledge sharing and joint publications
 Improve linkages and synergize with other global and regional initiatives

Strengthened partnerships and promotion of regional and international
cooperation.
Thank you
Workshop modalities
 WCRP CORDEX provide global coordination of regional climate
downscaling for improved regional climate change adaptation and
impact assessment
 Part 1: Science workshop (Day 1 and Day 2)
 Part 2: Training (Day 3 and Day 4)
Workshop themes
 Evaluation of monsoon climate simulation in HKH and Tibetan Plateau
region from multiple climate models (onset and withdraw, seasonal and
intra-seasonal variability, flood, drought, heat wave etc.).
 Assessment of downscaling techniques and their products in HKH
and Tibetan Plateau region to understand uncertainties accompanying
the regional climate projections and examine the feasibility of climate
model results.
 Bridging the gaps between end users’ needs and climate
modeling communities, and meeting the requests of end-users
(hydrology, agriculture, water resources, land cover and ecosystem,
human health etc.) on downscaled products, with definition of data
types, formats and resolutions, for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation
analysis.
 Training of operational departments and local policy makers in South
Asia and supporting local/regional policy making by providing user
friendly regional downscaling products for South Asia.