Transcript Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food

Mountain Day 2, UNFCCC COP 18, Doha
Climate Change, Vulnerability, and
Food Security Linkages in Himalayas
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Himalayan Climate
Change Adaptation
Programme
(HICAP)
Overview
• Adaptation challenges
• Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme
• Initial results on food security
• Key messages
Main Challenges
Uncertainties impeding local action
• Local-level climate projections not yet established
• Local institutions still unaware of the issue
• Community knowledge underexplored
Putting Adaptation in Motion
But we cannot wait until knowledge is perfect!
Mainstreaming adaptation options in planning requires:
• Local level projections and scientific analysis
• Understanding of the institutional landscape
• Understanding of local knowledge
• Good pilots
HICAP
Climate change
scenarios
Communication
and outreach
Water availability
and demand scenarios
Climate
Science
Cross cutting
components
Sub-basin
level
Goal:
Enhance resilience to change,
particularly climate change
Gender in
adaptation
Social
Science
Vulnerability
and adaptation
Objectives:
• Reduce uncertainty
• Knowledge and capacity
development
• Actionable proposals
Local
community
level
Ecosystem
services
Environmental
Science
Food
security
HICAP: Selected Sub-basins
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment
• Quantitative and place-based qualitative
• 3 river sub-basins in India, Nepal,
Pakistan
• Over 6,000 households
and 500 settlements
• Wide range of issues affecting
vulnerability and adaptive capacity
Mountain Farming Systems
• Small-holder agriculture
with fragmented land
• Mixed farming systems
• Low inputs, limited equipment,
labour shortage
• Predominantly rain-fed agriculture
with high vulnerability to climatic
changes
New Environment Stressors
Most common environmental changes noted in the last 10 years
Drought/ dry spell
49
Erratic rainfall
41
Occurrence of new
animal species
38
Most
Insect pest s
29
0
20
40
60
80
N=1,155 HH, 100%, data: VACA Survey 2011/12, HICAP Nepal, Koshi Sub-basin
100
Coping Strategies
Three most common coping strategies to deal with change in last 10 years
N =1,155, 100%, data: VACA 2011/12
Food Security Profile: Access
Contribution of food from different sources to household consumption (%)
River sub-basins
Self-produced Bought
from store
Food
subsidies/aid
Other
Contribution of food from different sources to household
Eastern Brahmaputra
consumption
(%)
34
51
9
(India)
Koshi
(Nepal)
Upper Indus
(Pakistan)
Average
5
54
44
<1
2
30
65
5
5
41
51
5
3
Over 90% of food comes from their own sources….
…..without any support from outside
Source: VACA data 2012
Food Security Profile:
Stability/Productivity
Top 3 staple and cash crops – reported
productivity trends (last 10 years)
Cash Crops
Staple Crops
Eastern
Brahmaputra
Koshi
Upper
Indus
Eastern
Brahmaputra
Koshi
Upper Indus
Main paddy
Main paddy
Wheat
Ginger
Summer
potato
Apple
Early paddy
Summer
maize
Summer
vegetables
Mustard
Mustard
Summer
Potato
Winter
vegetables
Wheat
Summer
potato
Chilly
Garlic
Apricot
Source: VACA data 2012
With a few exceptions, the productivity in
most crops is decreasing
Upper mountains in Nepal:
potato an advantageous ‘adaptation crop’
Food Security Profile: Utilization
• Unbalanced diets,
micronutrient deficiencies
• Erosion of traditional practices
and agro-/diet diversity
• Weak socioeconomic position of
women/children
• Food prices affect everyone but
disproportionate impact on poor
Adapting/Coping to Changes
• Farmers are clueless
Why are changes happening?
• Farmers are coping
But changes are happening faster than they
can handle; sometimes lifelong disadvantage
• Water is the ‘gateway’ to most problems
and solutions
Climatic variability exaggerates problems
• Indigenous solutions are often best
Research, document, and upscale
Adaptation?
Do we prepare for
the unpredictable
or the predicted?
Way Forward
• Further analysis of results
Correlate food security with climatic/hydrological
scenarios
• Prevent maladaptation, improve resilience
Technology and traditional knowledge
• Improve response mechanism
Early warning systems and
flood management
• Reduce farming risk
Insurance, market and farmers centric
extension services,
particularly for rainfed farming
Thank you
Himalayan Climate
Change Adaptation
Programme
(HICAP)