Transcript Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East

Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Managing Floods and Droughts:
Water in the South East
30th November 2004
University of Westminster
Louise Every
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Scope of the research
The Commission is concerned with the impact that
climate change and current and proposed housing
developments in the SE will have on water resources,
flood risk and flood management.
Emphasis on:
public water supply and household demand
management, flooding and development
Not on:
abstraction regimes and licensing, industrial and
agricultural sectors, water treatment and quality (in
detail).
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Drivers of change in the SE
Climate change
– hotter, drier summers, wetter, milder winters,
more extreme weather, rising sea level
Housing growth
– amount, design and location
Population growth
- Increases resource demand
Economic growth
- Increases consumption, but needed to fund
adaptation and innovation
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Current situation
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Water Consumption in the SE
• High but stabilising per capita consumption
• High and increasing overall water demand
• Leakage levels generally under control
– Except Thames and Three Valleys
• SE metering rates relatively low
– Several companies predict <50% by 2025
– EA doubts 2003/04 and 2024/25 targets will
be met
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Is there enough water…?
Future scenarios work
Prepared by the Water Resources in the SE Group for
SE Plan
Overall conclusion
‘Increased demand from new development in
the South East can only be accommodated
through a combination of demand and supply
side activities’
But…
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Is there enough water…?
Caveats and considerations
• Not considered impacts of London and other region’s housing growth
• Supply and demand measures required
• Enabling mechanisms required to increase demand management
• Assumes 55% of SE households metered by 2020
• Planning permissions and abstraction licenses needed
• Uncertainty over climate change impacts
• Adequate funding needed
Assumptions and uncertainties
• Sustainability reductions – uncertainty remains
• Water transfers – some un-costed and unverified but may be viable
• Report does not refer to sewage treatment – possible constraint to
development in certain localities
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Policy issues
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Getting back on the ‘twin track approach’
Increasing supply
Managing demand
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Policy issues – increasing supply
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Scope for storing more winter water
Reservoirs – pro’s and con’s
Transfers – west to east, feasibility and cost
Timing is crucial
Planning process and public involvement
implications
Consider ‘Assured Water Supply’ approach
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Policy issues – managing demand
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Expand water metering and use smarter tariffs
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Building regulations
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Mandatory 20% water efficiency in regulations
Higher in national code – review voluntary status
The role of planning
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Incentivising
Fairer, more progressive
EA - stronger role in assessing water scarcity status
Water efficiency a material consideration in planning
A water efficiency commitment – SE regional pilot
A Water Savings Trust?
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Rising flood risk in the SE
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Probability and consequences predicted to increase
SE at greater risk than other regions
£500m p.a currently spent by Defra on defences,
£700m to £1b by 2020
UK: £5b losses in past 5 years to storms and floods
Challenges:
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Deciding on acceptable risk
Avoiding panic and blight
Finding suitable locations for development
Deciding on defence vs. abandonment
Funding
Compensation
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Rising flood risk in the SE
2080’s
Expected
annual
damage (£
million) –
residential and
commercial
2080’s
Expected
annual
probability of
flooding
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Policy issues
• Assessing risk and public attitudes to future risks
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Greater public involvement
Problems of assessing attitude to future risk
Market trends
• The role of insurers and mortgage providers
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Influencing development
Maintaining affordable cover
Alternative risk-transfer mechanisms
• Planning
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Stronger guidance
Conflicting targets
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems
• Addressing the causes of climate change
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Institutions and Governance in the SE
Relatively complex water company profile
Is there scope for greater co-ordination, both within the
region and inter-regionally – particularly with London?
What are the implications of the WFD for water planning
– water resources and flood management – at the
regional level?
How can the public, as stakeholders, become more
involved?
Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East
Summary
• Caution against reliance on supply augmentation
• Need robust mechanisms to ensure efficiency savings of 20%
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Higher rate of metering with help for high use-low income groups
Building regulations - 20% water efficiency
Local planning powers to mandate higher efficiencies
Pilot SE water efficiency commitment and investigate a WST
Stronger, clearer planning guidance on flood risk and development
Partnership working to deliver suitable housing in suitable locations
SuDS – become the norm, with clearer management responsibility
Governance – investigate greater intra and inter-regional coordination and public involvement
• Environment to be at the heart of regional plans