Transcript 15025 - WCDRR

Enhancing Risk Management
Partnerships for Catastrophic
Natural Disasters in Europe
Jaroslav Mysiak, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei [FEEM] and
Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change [CMCC]
Economic damage and losses caused by natural
hazards in Europe are driven by small number of
highly damaging events.
The economic damage caused by weather and climate related natural
hazards in the member countries of the European Environmental Agency
(EEA) over the period 1980-2013 amounted to 394,545 million Euro in
2013 Euro value, on average 11,604 million Euro/year, 69,034 Euro/sq.km,
or 643 Euro/capita. Around 33 per cent of the total losses were insured.
Around 70% of total damage was caused by only 3% of registered
events.
EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY [recent update of the damage indicator]
Partnerships are a essential part of the post-2015
development agenda and disaster risk reduction.
Disaster risk reduction requires an all-of-society engagement and
partnership [17d] … across mechanisms and institutions [24],
complementarity in roles and accountability and follow-up [17e].
Post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction [as of 28 January 2015]
Enhance
To develop and analyse new ways
to enhance society’s resilience to
catastrophic natural hazard
impacts, by
[i] developing new risk scenarios
and knowledge in selected cases;
and [ii] contributing to
development of multi-sector
partnerships (MSPs) to reduce,
prepare for or redistribute risk.
EU FP7 funded project
(2012-2016; Enhancing Risk
Management Partnerships
for Catastrophic Natural
Disasters in Europe.
www.enhanceproject.eu
#enhanceproject
See also Policy brief:
Natural hazard risk
assessments for improving
resilience in Europe
Partnerships analysed
[1] Risk and cost sharing arrangements between public and
private in (affordable and socially fair) insurance provision or
critical infrastructure development and protection,
[2] Assemblies of users of a resource, typically water, under
conditions of permanent or temporal scarcity,
[3] Territorial, often cross-border cooperation among
communities sharing a sense and/or identity conferred to a
physical place,
[4] Horizontal and vertical cooperation between public agencies
and authorities for the sake of a better public service provision
and more efficient allocation and use of resources.
Hazards analysed and case studies
IT
Po river basin
ES
Jucar river
basin
DE
Wadden Sea
UK London
NL
AT
PT
Floods,
droughts
Drought,
water
scarcity
Strom
surges
Floods
Storm
Rotterdam Port surges,
floods
Floods,
Alpine
landslides,
Railways
avalanches
Santarém
Forest fire
EU1 Health services Heat wave
Floods
earthquakes
Volcano
EU3 Aviation safety
eruption
EU2
Insurance
viability
The location of the regional case studies
as minimum bounding geometry of the
reference area
Risk analysis
- targeted at low-probability, high impact events,
- to the extent possible, build upon observed and projected
environmental (including climate) and societal changes, and
combine qualitative and quantitative data techniques,
- specified in collaboration with the relevant stakeholders in a
way so as to informs existing or potential MSPs,
Example – EU wide flood risk assessment
Risk analysis ought take into account the spatial and
temporal correlation of economic losses inflicted by
natural hazards.
Risk analysis by Hochrainer-Stigler et al (2015) building upon Rojas et al.
(2012, 2013), Hochrainer-Stigler et al. (2014), Jongman et al. 2014.
Based on ensemble of 12 high-resolution GCMs and RCMs, bias corrected
rainfall simulations, forced by SRES-A1B. Simulated river discharge fitted
to Gumbel distribution to estimate volumes for different return periods.
Planar approximation produced flood inundation maps. Exposure
estimated using CORINE LC and scaled by projected GDP. Copula
analysis of loss distribution incorporated regional inter-dependencies,
discriminating independent and dependent hazard events.
Example – London flood risk assessment
Subsidised insurance scheme ought to informed
about how the risk increases as the climate change
becomes more pronounced.
Risk analysis by Jenkins et al (2015).
Detailed flood depth maps for 1/30, 1/100, and 1/200 year return periods
generated by the Drain London project. Economic damages to residential
building fabric and contents calculated using flood depth-damage
functions. Potential impact of climate change on future flood risk and
economic damages estimated using hourly rainfall data from a spatial
version of the UKCP09 WG. Average annual damage projected to
increase by 50% and 80% by the 2030s and 2050s respectively.
Example – flood protection infrastructure
Cost recovery of flood protection services ought to
ponder the costs of infrastructure disruption and
how land-use changes shape the flood risk.
Risk analysis by Mysiak et al (2015).
Integrated modelling framework used to analyse surface run-off,
propagation of water volumes in the network, and simulate flood
dynamics. Climate projections by RCM COSMO-CLM for RCP4.5 and 8.5.
Economic damage to tangible capital assets as well as production losses,
in terms of flow of foregone production GVA, GDP) analysed. The
damage and losses decline substantially through controlled flood
strategy.
Example – risk assessment at Rotterdam port
Disruptions of infrastructural nodes may causes
indirect losses that are not accounted for by the
standard risk analysis.
Risk analysis by Nicolai et al (2015).
Comparison of the damage to tangible assets and the losses as a result of
business interruption show similar order of magnitude, 0.7-6.8 billion
and 1.1-7.3 billion respectively for the flood events with return period
1:10,000 years. Floods of short duration can cause damage for which
recovery may last up to several month or longer. Reduction of the
inventory stocks may inflate the losses, hence optimal inventory storage
should be a priority for the business related DRR.
Governance of partnerships
Partnerships should:
- target market failures and limit to the extent possible the
distortion of competition,
-promote promote or at least not harm the incentive for risk
reduction and a sound use of public resources,
- be well-thought and designed on principles of openness,
transparency, equal treatment and legitimacy
- embrace mechanism of effective analysis, monitoring and
periodic review
- be based on clear rules of viability and accountability.
Thank you for your attention
visit enhanceproject.eu
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The research reported here was conducted with financial contribution from
the European Union, the FP7 under the Grant Agreement no. 308438