Transcript Goyal, R. - Third Pole Environment

HIMAP
HINDU KUSH HIMALAYAS MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
PROGRAM (HIMAP):
ACTION TO SUSTAIN A GLOBAL ASSET
Presentation for the 5th TPE Workshop Rajeev Goyal, ICIMOD
Berlin 9 December 2014
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Major River Systems
Global Biodiversity Hotspots
Important Bird Areas
Billion Humans
Background and Context for Why HIMAP was Created
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Filling the IPCC data gap identified for the HKH Region
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Mitigating the breach: science community, policy making bodies, and
traditional communities
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Defining how the HKH is a global asset (just as AMAP helped define the
Arctic as a global asset)
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Need for ‘scenarios thinking’ and modeling of complex bio-physical,
social, and economic drivers of change in the region
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Identifying tipping points and communicating them to policy makers
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Urgency: Precipitous decline of bio-cultural diversity, glacial biomass
changes and shifts in hydrological cycle, and human vulnerability
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Need to simplify the policy messages and create multi-institutional
consensus and momentum around a few core objectives
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Costs of inaction will be high
Drawing lessons from the Arctic Experience:
More than 2 decades of monitoring and assessment
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Moving beyond a single publication format to frame an ongoing and cumulative process
and culture of high quality monitoring
Interweaving of monitoring and assessment functions
Live-Feed data on glaciers, biodiversity, urbanization and other aspects
Production should be in a range of formats including videos, slide shows, summaries, onepagers, graphs, data portals, and also the assessment. This will help reach different target
audiences
Employ Photo Contests and Calls for Content and Testimonials to acquire original material
and build awareness within traditional communities
Identify the knowledge gaps and frame new research directions
Follow AMAP 4-part documents structure: Education Summaries, overview reports, scientific
background reports and technical reports
Identifying Hot Spots to Provide TEK perspective
Lead Authors of the full science report should be profiled on website and featured in a video
The “Integration Team” should be comprised of Lead Authors.
Working Groups comprised of the lead author teams
Taking a positive approach, Identifying the opportunities for action
Assessment is not an inventory but rather an evaluation of threats and opportunities
AMAP: Multiple Products
Key Differences between AMAP and HIMAP
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Population: 4 million versus 1.3 billion in HKH watershed
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Arctic focuses on the polar caps-oceans nexus, while the HKH focus is the
glacier-watershed and upstream/downstream linkages
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AMAP focused on oil & gas exploration, pollutant cycling, POPs, and biomagnification, whereas critical issues in the HKH may be different
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Urbanization, Mobility, Migration and Growth in HKH is happening at a frenzied
pitch
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Drivers of change and consequent future scenarios might be more complex in
HKH due to greater human population and range of ecosystem types
Understanding HIMAP’s Operational Structure
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Steering Committee (5)
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Integration Team (18-20)
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Working Groups (5)
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Chapter Lead Authors (17)
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Chapter Scientists (2 per chapter, 34 total)
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Country Report Teams (1 per country)
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Rigorous Review Process (Independent)
HIMAP Working Groups
WG 1. Defining the Vision for the HKH
WG 2. State of Knowledge
WG 3. Drivers of Change and Future Scenarios
WG 4. Sustainable Development
WG 5. Policy Recommendations
Integration & Synthesis Team:
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Comprised of all the Lead Authors
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Overseen by SC
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Collectively will draft Chapter 0 and 16, which will also be standalone documents
Working Groups 1 and 2
Working Group 1 - Vision
Chapter 0: Summary for Decision-makers
Chapter 1: Introduction: Setting the Scene
Working Group 2 – State of Knowledge
Chapter 2: State of Knowledge and Trends
Working Group 3 (Drivers)
Chapter 3: Drivers of Change: Local, Regional, and Global
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Climate Change
Disasters, Droughts and Floods
Invasive alien species (IAS)
Energy (hydropower, fossil fuels, wind, solar, biomass)
Air Pollution
Economic Growth and Industrialization
Trade
Migration/Remittances
Built fabric/Construction Techniques
Urbanization
Technology, Mobility, and Communications
Land Pollution and Solid Waste
Land Use and Land Cover Changes, Deforestation
Water Pollution
Working Group 3 (Future Scenarios)
Chapter 4: Future Scenarios
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“Green/Eco- Scenario” (Environmentally Friendly, organic farming, inclusive development)
“Economic Growth and Industrial Scenario” (Less attention to Environment more large
hydropower, more monocultures, more timber industries)
“Business as Usual Scenario” (following present trends and being influenced by global
economy)
“Sustainable Mountain Development Scenario”
Impacts of Each Scenario on:
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Economic & Social Equitability
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Ecosystems
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Biodiversity
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Securities: Food, Water, Energy, & Livelihood
Working Group 3 (Climate Change)
Chapter 5:
“Climate Change in the HKH”
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Physical Sciences Modeling of Climate Change linked to the 4
Scenarios (linked to the IPCC scenarios)
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Impacts and Vulnerability
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Glaciers
Working Groups 4 and 5 (Sustainable
Development and Policy Recommendations)
Working Group 4: Sustainable Mountain Development
Chapter 6: Sustaining the HKH ecosystem services
Chapter 7: Meeting Future energy needs (Energy Security)
Chapter 8: Water Availability and Use (Water Security)
Chapter 9: Achieving Food Security
Chapter 10: Managing Trans-boundary Air Pollution and Black Carbon
Chapter 11: Equity: Poverty, vulnerability and livelihood
Chapter 12: Adaptation Strategies
Chapter 13: Gender and Inclusive Development (indigenous groups, ethnic minorities)
Chapter 14: Migration
Chapter 15: Country Specific Implications
Working Group 5: Policy Recommendations
CONCLUSION/CHAPTER 16: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY MAKERS
What has been achieved so far?
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Working Groups & Chapter Structure defined by the HIMAP
Steering Committee
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Meeting in Kathmandu focused on the Food-Water-Energy Nexus
where key messages were defined and presented
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Identification of potential authors, lead authors, and reviewers
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Write-shop on Drivers of Change to take place in Bhutan on
February 4-6 in conjunction with the Himalayan Circle-Third Pole
Environment organized
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Workshop focused on indigenous knowledge and perspective of the
business community being organized in Bhutan, July 2015 in
conjunction with Himalayan Consensus
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Process/TOR for Lead coordinating author selection defined
Key issues identified during the Kathmandu Food-WaterEnergy Nexus Workshop
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Scale issue needs to be adequately addressed by the assessment: Local/micro
catchment, district/watershed, national/sub-basin, regional/basin
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Must assess current and future water availability and demand scenarios under changing
climate and socio-economic development
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Adaptation and resilience measures will be critical in terms of identifying solutions and
recommendations
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Availability, affordability, quality/reliability and sustainability are basic tenants of
food/water/energy security in mountain areas
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The energy demands in mountain regions are rising
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Upstream and downstream perspective
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Energy demand growing rapidly (3-5% annually) due to rapid urbanization, rising income
and changing lifestyles and the supply-demand gaps are expected to further widen
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Mountain biodiversity at risk
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Policies, institutions, technologies must sensitize to mountain contexts
Next Steps and How to Become a Part of HIMAP
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Writers: lead authors and contributing authors
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Hosting: Academic institutions, conferences and other venues to
host/integrate HIMAP exercise
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Students: literature review and research
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Contact us if interested to become a HIMAP author or to learn more
about how you can help ([email protected])
THANK YOU!!
HIMAP: Action to Sustain a Global Asset