Transcript CMIP6Overview_CMIP6-DICAD_KickOff_160718_Eyring

Overview Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
CMIP6-DICAD Kick-Off Meeting
19 July 2016
DKRZ, Hamburg
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
- Understanding past, present and future climate  CMIP is a project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)’s Working
Group of Coupled Modelling (WGCM).
 Since 1995, CMIP has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple
international modeling teams worldwide.
 CMIP has led to a better understanding of past, present and future climate
change and variability in a multi-model framework.
 CMIP defines common experiment protocols, forcings and output.
 CMIP has developed in phases, with the simulations of the fifth phase, CMIP5,
now completed, and the planning of the sixth phase, i.e. CMIP6, well underway.
 CMIP’s central goal is to advance scientific understanding of the Earth system.
 CMIP model simulations have also been regularly assessed as part of the IPCC
Climate Assessments Reports and various national assessments.
CMIP6 Organization
• CMIP Panel (V. Eyring (chair), S. Bony, J. Meehl, C. Senior, B. Stevens, R. Stouffer, K. Taylor)
which is responsible for direct coordination of CMIP and overseeing the whole CMIP process.
• WGCM Infrastructure Panel (WIP, co-chairs V. Balaji & K. Taylor): Establishes standards and
policies for sharing climate model output; puts the data request together technically (M. Juckes).
CMIP6 Experimental Design
Based on an extensive period (three years) of community consultation
• Summer 2013 CMIP5 survey and Aspen & WGCM/AIMES 2013 meetings
• Initial proposal for the design of CMIP6 (Meehl et al., EOS, 2014).
• Feedback on this initial CMIP6 proposal has being solicited until September 2014.
• The WGCM and the CMIP Panel have then finalized the CMIP6 design at the WGCM 18th
session (October 2014, Grainau) in consultation with the model groups and MIP co-chairs.
CMIP6 Design: Scientific Focus
• The scientific backdrop for CMIP6 is the WCRP Grand Science Challenges:
1.
Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity
2.
Changes in Cryosphere
3.
Climate Extremes
4.
Regional Sea-level Rise
5.
Water Availability
6.
Near-Term Climate Prediction
7.
Biogeochemical Cycles and Climate Change
• The specific experimental design is focused on three broad scientific
questions:
1.
How does the Earth System respond to forcing?
2.
What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?
3.
How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability,
predictability and uncertainties in scenarios?
Eyring et al., CMIP6 Overview, GMD, 2016
CMIP: a More Continuous and Distributed Organization
(3) CMIP-Endorsed Model
Intercomparison Projects (MIPs)
(1) A handful of common experiments
DECK (entry card for CMIP)
i.
AMIP simulation (~19792014)
ii. Pre-industrial control
simulation
iii. 1%/yr CO2 increase
iv. Abrupt 4xCO2 run
CMIP6 Historical Simulation
(entry card for CMIP6)
v. Historical simulation using
CMIP6 forcings (1850-2014)
(2) Standardization,
coordination,
infrastructure, documentation
Eyring et al., CMIP6 Overview, GMD, 2016
DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of
Klima) & CMIP6 Historical Simulation to be run for each
model configuration used in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
Eyring et al., CMIP6 Overview, GMD, 2016
Diagnostic MIPs
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project
(ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Co-chairs: Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef van Vuuren
SSPs: set of baselines, with future developments in absence of new climate policies beyond those in place today
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
SSP1
SSP2
2100 forcing level (W/m2)
Climate
Climate change mitigation policies
Sustainability Middle of
the Road
SSP3
Regional
Rivalry
SSP4
SSP5
Inequality Fossil-fueled
Development
Previous
scenarios
+LTE
8.5
1
+Ens
7.0
6.0
4.5
3.4
2.6
OS
+LTE
+LTE
2.0
Tier 1
Tier 2
Ens: Initial condition ensemble
LTE: Long-term extension
OS: Overshoot
O’Neill et al., ScenarioMIP for CMIP6, GMDD, in rev., 2016
CMIP5
RCPs
Illustrating ScenarioMIP simulations, Preliminary results from Integrated Assessment Models
Gray areas: range of scenarios in the scenarios database for IPCC AR5
PRELIMINARY DRAFT
140
120
1300
CO2 emissions
SSP5-8.5
1200
(Baseline)
(Baseline)
60
40
SSP4-6.0
20
RCP 4.5
SSP2-4.5
0
SSP1-2.6
SSP1-2.0
SSP4-3.4
SSP5-3.4-OS
-20
1980
2000
Concentration CO2 (ppm)
CO2 total (Gt CO2)
SSP3-7.0
80
-40
1960
CO2 concentration
1100
100
S
1000
900
S
800
700
S
600
RCP 4.5
500
S
S
400
PRELIMINARY DRAFT
2020
2040
2060
2080
300
1960
2100
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
210
1300
6
SSP5-8.5
PRELIMINARY DRAFT
1200
(Baseline)
SSP5-8.5 (REF)
1100
W/m2
SSP5-8.5
O’Neill
et al., ScenarioMIP
for 1200
(Baseline)
6
CMIP6,
GMDD, in rev., 2016 1100
5
4
SSP3-7.0
(Baseline)
CO2 concentration
1000
Figure reproduced from Riahi et900al.,
RCP 4.5
3
Special Issue in Global
800
2
Environmental
Change, 2016
1
(Baseline)
SSP4-6.0
700
900
SSP4-6.0800
RCP 4.5
SSP4-6.0
SSP2-4.5
SSP1-2.6
SSP1-2.0
SSP4-3.4
SSP5-3.4-OS
600
RCP 4.52020SSP2-4.5
1980 0 2000
2040
2060
2080
2100
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
500
SSP1-2.6
5
SSP5-8.5 (REF) S
4
S
1000
SSP3-7.0
(REF)
SSP3-7.0
1300
Concentration CO2 (ppm)
8
7
CO2 concentration
Temperature change
SSP2-4.5700
SSP5-3.4-OS
600
SSP4-3.4
Degree C
10
CO2 emissions
Total Radiative Forcing
9
Concentration CO2 (ppm)
0
SSP-RCP Scenario Matrix
SSP3-7.0 (REF)
3
SSP4-6.0
2
1
SSP4-6.0
300
1960
2100
SSP2-4.5
SSP3-7.0 (REF)
SSP1-2.6500
SSP1-2.0
400
S
SSP5-8.5 (REF)
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
SSP5-3.4-OS
SSP4-3.4
SSP1-2.6
SSP1-2.0
1980 0 2000
2020SSP2-4.5
2040
2060
2080
2100
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
RCP 4.5
SSP5-3.4-OS
S
S
S
S
S
210
Models are Increasing in Complexity and Resolution
From AOGCMs to Earth System Models with biogeochemical cycles, from lowres to highres
130 km resolution orography
I. Improvements in physical processes already included in GCMs
Atmospheric Chemistry
25 km resolution orography
III. Allows to study new physical
and biogeochemical processes
and feedbacks (e.g., carbon
cycle, permafrost, chemistry,
aerosols, ice sheets)
II. Allows to study processes
as horizontal resolution is
increased
to
“weatherresolving”
global
model
resolutions (~25km or finer)
https://www2.ucar.edu/news/understanding-climate-change-multimedia-gallery
How to characterize the wide variety of models in CMIP6?
- Routine Benchmarking and Evaluation Central Part of CMIP6 Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) developed as community tool to produce
well-established analyses as soon as CMIP model output is submitted.
Similar to Figure 9.7 of AR5
Broad Characterization
of Model Behavior
CMIP5 MMM
(incl. IPCC AR5 Chap 9 & 12
diagnostics in ESMValTool)
Monsoon Precipitation Intensity
Running alongside
the ESGF
CMIP5 MMM - OBS
Similar to Figure 9.5 of AR5
Similar to Figure 9.24 of AR5
Link to projections
Net Cloud radiative effect against CERES EBAF
Similar to Figure 9.24 of AR5
Eyring et al., ESMValTool version 1.0, GMD (2016b)
Slide 11
Under-Exploited Observations for Model Evaluation
Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects (obs4MIPs)
WCRP Data Advisory Council's (WDAC) Task Team on Observations for Model Evaluation
Co-Chairs: Peter Gleckler and Duane Waliser
How to bring as much observational
scrutiny as possible to the CMIP process?
•
•
•
•
How to best utilize the wealth of satellite
observations for the CMIP process?
Obs4MIPs has defined a set of technical specifications and criteria for developing
observational data sets that are technically aligned with CMIP model output (with common
file format, data and metadata structure).
Over 50 datasets that conform to these standards are now archived on the ESGF alongside
CMIP model output (Teixeira et al., BAMS, 2014), including ESA CCI data
Obs4MIPs has been enthusiastically received by the community; archive is growing
Sister project ana4MIPs hosting reanalyses data
Routine Benchmarking and Evaluation Central Part of CMIP6
 We argue that the community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects
of ESM evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently
 The resulting, increasingly systematic characterization of models will, compared with early
phases of CMIP, more quickly and openly identify strengths & weaknesses of the simulations.
 Emphasize diagnostics & metrics that have demonstrated their importance in ESM
 Evaluation tools designed to facilitate community-development
 This activity also aims to assist modelling groups in improving their models
 Running alongside the ESGF, as soon as the output is published
=> CMIP6-DICAD WP6
Fokus der Evaluierung
mit ESMValTool auf
MPI-ESM1/2 und
EMAC2 im Vergleich zu
anderen CMIP5/6
Modellen
Eyring et al., ESD, in rev. (2016); Companion paper to Stouffer et al. BAMS, in press (2016)
Slide 13
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Remains Uncertain
Defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused
by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The model spread in ECS
ranges from 2.1°C to 4.7°C
and is very similar to the
assessment in AR4 (IPCC
AR5, Chapter 9).
Large Uncertainty Remains in Some Projected Variables
Is the multi-model mean always the best measure?
The spread of an ensemble of models is often used as
a first-order estimate of projection uncertainty
 Despite the fact that models differ in terms of
resolution, processes and components included,
and agreement with observations.
 Despite there is inter-model dependence
September Arctic sea ice extent
IPCC AR5, Fig.12.31
CMIP6 Timeline
Eyring et al., CMIP6 Overview, GMD, 2016
Status and Outlook
CMIP6 Status
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
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CMIP6 Experimental Design finalized
Forcing datasets for DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations finalized before mid-2016
CMIP6 Simulation Period (2016-2020)
Infrastructure in preparation (including data request) by WGCM Infrastructure Panel (WIP)
CMIP6 Participating Model Groups: > 35 using a wide variety of different model versions
21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs that build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to
address a large range of specific questions with WCRP Grand Challenges as scientific backdrop.
CMIP6 Climate Projections part of a CMIP6-Endorsed MIP (ScenarioMIP)


New scenarios span the same range as the RCPs, but fill critical gaps for intermediate
forcing levels and questions for example on short-lived species and land-use.
Forcings for future scenarios available by end of 2016, climate model projections expected to
be available within the 2018-2020 time frame.
A Central Goal of CMIP6 is Routine Evaluation of the Models with Observations

Efforts to develop community tools and to couple them to the ESGF are underway
Geosci. Model Dev. Special Issue on CMIP6



Overview of the CMIP6 Experiment Design and Organization (Eyring et al., GMD, 2016)
Experimental design from all CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
Description of the CMIP6 forcing data and infrastructure
=> We expect CMIP6 to continue CMIP’s tradition of major scientific advances
http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip