Transcript Document

Future Directions
in
Globally Coordinated
Climate Change Research
Primary Sources:
IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5/CMIP6/SSP Plans
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
Approaches to Scenario Development
Previous (SRES)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Current (RCPs)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
Representative Concentration Pathways
RCP8.5
• > 8.5 W/m2 in 2100
• rising
RCP6
• ~ 6 W/m2 in 2100
• stabilization
RCP4.5
• 4.5 W/m2 in 2100
• stabilization
RCP2.6
• peak 3 W/m2 before 2100
• decline after peak
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(Now the previous plan)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6): Design and Organization
Veronika Eyring, Jerry Meehl, Bjorn Stevens, Ron Stouffer, Karl
Taylor
(CMIP Panel)
Sandrine Bony and Cath Senior (WGCM Co-chairs)
V. Balaji (WGCM Infrastructure Panel co-chair with K. Taylor)
16 January 2015 (updates to CMIP6 Data Request Timeline on Slide 9) Please
see the CMIP Panel website for additional information and updates: http://www.wcrpclimate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip
Contact for questions: CMIP Panel Chair Veronika Eyring (email: [email protected])
The final CMIP6 Design, possibly with small modifications to the here presented figures and wording,
will be published in a GMD Special Issue together with a description of the CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
and the forcing datasets. This Special Issue will open 30 April 2015.
CMIP6 Design: Scientific Focus
•
•
The scientific backdrop for CMIP6 is the six WCRP Grand Challenges,
and an additional theme encapsulating questions related to
biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks.
1.
Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity
2.
Changes in Cryosphere
3.
Climate Extremes
4.
Regional Climate Information
5.
Regional Sea-level Rise
6.
Water Availability
BUT NOTE:
These are under
review and
evolving!
7. Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks (AIMES & WGCM)
The specific experimental design is focused on three broad scientific
questions:
1.
How does the Earth System respond to forcing?
2.
3.
What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?
How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability,
predictability and uncertainties in scenarios?
WCRP Grand Challenges: (1) Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, (2) Changes in cryosphere, (3)
Climate extremes, (4) Regional climate information, (5) Regional sea-level rise, and (6) Water availability, plus
an additional theme on “Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks”
DECK (entry card for CMIP)
i.AMIP simulation (~1979- 2014)
ii.Pre-industrial control simulation
iii.1%/yr CO2 increase
iv.Abrupt 4xCO2 run
CMIP6 Historical Simulation (entry card for CMIP6)
v.Historical simulation using CMIP6 forcings (1850-2014)
Note: The themes in the outer circle of the figure might
be slightly revised at the end of the MIP endorsement
process
(DECK & CMIP6 Historical Simulation to
be run for each model configuration used
in the subsequent CMIP6-Endorsed
MIPs)
With proto-DECK experiments
(LMIP,OMIP etc.) in CMIP6
Tier1
CMIP
Continuity
Note: The themes in the outer circle of the figure might be slightly revised at the end of the MIP endorsement
process
Criteria for DECK and CMIP6 Historical Simulation
(DECK = Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima)
(1) What are the criteria for the DECK?
The DECK experiments are chosen
1.to provide continuity across past and future phases of CMIP,
2.to evolve as little as possible over time,
3.to be well-established,
4.to be part of the model development cycle.
(2) What are the criteria for the CMIP Phase X Historical
Simulation? The CMIP Phase X Historical Simulation is chosen
1.to serve as a benchmark for CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
2.to use the specific forcings consistent with Phase X of CMIP
3.to be decoupled from model development cycle if needed.
ScenarioMIP: Current Status
Brian O’Neill, NCAR
Scenario MIP Co-chairs:
Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef van Vuuren
Members: Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti,
Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Jerry Meehl,
Richard Moss, Ben Sanderson
Contributions/feedback from additional IAM researchers:
Kate Calvin, Shinichiro Fujimori, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi
Other MIPs: esp. LUMIP, AerChemMIP, C4MIP
IAV Community: ICONICS, TGICA
CMIP6
Design
ScenarioMIP Objectives
https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/research/
mips/scenario-mip
Define and recommend an experimental design
for future scenarios to be run by climate models
as part of CMIP6
Also:
Coordinate the provision of IAM scenario information to climate
modeling groups
Coordinate the production of climate model simulations and
facilitate provision of output
ScenarioMIP Goals
1. Facilitating integrated research across climate
science, IAM and IAV communities
– Span wide forcing range and intermediate levels
– Continuity with CMIP5
– Include new forcing pathways of interest
2. Anchoring targeted experiments to answer
questions about specific forcings
– Include scenarios with forcings (land use,
aerosols) useful to other MIPs
The Scenario Process:
CMIP6 and Scenario MIP
SSPs
RCPs
CMIP6 Scenarios
CMIP5
Pattern
scaling
CMIP6
IAM
scenarios
O’Neill & Schweizer, 2011; based on Moss et al. (2010).
IAM, IAV
More
IAM,studies
IAV studies
CMIP5 RCP sims
Infeasible
SSP ref. scens.
ScenarioMIP design:
Specific scenarios
Tier 1 (H/M/L) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Tier 2 (H/M/L) SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Sustainability
Middle of
the Road
Regional
Rivalry
Inequality
SRES
Fossil-fueled
Development
Forcing level (W/m2)
8.5
Ensemble
~7
6.0
4.5
~3.7
2.6
Long-term extensions
Overshoot
CMIP5 RCP sims
Infeasible
SSP ref. scens.
ScenarioMIP design:
Specific scenarios
Tier 1 (H/M/L) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Tier 2 (H/M/L) SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Sustainability
Middle of
the Road
Regional
Rivalry
Inequality
Fossil-fueled
Development
Forcing level (W/m2)
8.5
~7
Ensemble
6.0
4.5
~3.7
2.6
Long-term extensions
Overshoot
SRES
Future Directions
in
Globally Coordinated
Climate Change Research
END
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Future Directions (for the AR5)