Transcript Paris and what it means

Climate change,
the outcome of Paris COP 21
and what it means:
1) for the world,
2) for the Netherlands
3) for Wageningen UR
by
Pier Vellinga
former chairman of the National Research Program
‘Knowledge for Climate’
Emeritus professor at Wageningen UR and Vrije Universiteit
presently director Water and Climate of the Wadden Academy, Leeuwarden.
30 years dealing with Climate Change
1. Looking back over the last 30 years.
2. Why international climate negotiations made such little progress
sofar;
3. Paris outcome and what it means for the world, the Netherlands
and Wageningen UR;
4. The renewable energy revolution is now leading; what about land
use, agriculture and food?
5. Adaptation to climate change increasingly relevant, but how to
adapt?
The history of science regarding properties and
effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gasses
• John Tyndall in 1850; Svante Arrhenius in 1896;
• Geophysical year: 1957; Start measurements of CO-2
concentrations on Hawaii by Richard Keeling in 1958;
• First discussions in US politics in the 1960’s;
• Club of Rome 1972; Oil crises in 1973;
• In the Netherlands politics: white paper on selective economic
growth…”green growth” in 1976 presented by the minister for
economics, Lubbers.
The 1980’s
• First World Climate Conference, organized by the WMO in
1979; reports about the possibility of 5 meters rise in sea level
by 2100, circulating in 1983;
• Villach en Bellagio meetings in 1985/1987 about ”winners and
losers”, ”climate change” or ”global warming” and about
putting the issue on the international agenda.
• Report : Our Common Future in 1987, introducing the concept
of sustainable development; Toronto conference in 1987;
Noordwijk: the first international ministerial conference held in
1989. Establishment of IPCC in 1989/1990
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) agreed
in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, cap and trade versus pledge and
review as guiding principle for the sharing of efforts to reduce
emissions.
The 1990’s
• From UN Framework Convention (Rio 1992) to Kyoto Protocol,
agreed in 1997, including a reduction of industrialized country
emissions by 5 % in 2010/2012 as compared to 1990.
• Development of EU emission trading scheme;
• Clean Development Mechanism, Joint implementation;
• International implementation of Montreal protocol on the
reduction of CFC ‘s affecting the ozone layer.
•
The years 2000 - 2010
•
EU efforts to bring the USA , India and China into the game of international
agreements on greenhouse gas emission control; and broadening the
agenda including international financing mechanisms for mitigation and
adaptation measures and agreements on international cooperation on forest
management and adaptation;
•
Fourth IPCC assessment report published in 2007 with far reaching
conclusions: greenhouse gas emissions with high probability responsible for
at least part of global warming measured since 1970.
•
Agreement about “unilateral” emission control measures by the EU
countries: the so called 20/20/20 goals for 2020 regarding energy efficiency
gains, renewable energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction;
•
Failure of the Copenhagen International Conference of the Parties.: a follow
up of the Kyoto protocol regarding an internationally binding regime for
emission control could not be agreed. Especially USA, and in its wake
China and India were not prepared to agree on internationally binding
targets for emission control/reductions.
The years 2010-2011
• Enormous backlash after failure of Copenhagen and the apparent
lack of political will to agree on an international regime for
greenhouse emissions control/reductions.
• Aggressive attack on the IPCC, on individual climate scientists and
on climate policy in general,
….trigger is a number of mistakes in some of the IPCC reports and
insufficient rigor in reporting on the use of tree ring and historic
temperature records; the hockey stick curve describing historic an
de recent temperature changes is seriously questioned;
• Formally established national and international review committees
conclude in their reports that the virulent attacks on the scientific
quality of the IPCC findings are not justified. The main findings of
IPCC remain valid.
The years 2012-2015
• A number of major international companies take
initiatives to reduce CO-2 and other greenhouse gas
emissions…in the Netherlands: Unilever, AKZO, DSM, in
the USA: Apple, Google, Ikea,……..
• Investments in renewable electricity generation plants
increase rapidly; these are in 2012, 2013 and 2014
increasingly larger than investments in fossil fuel
electricity generation.
• International studies carried out by major European
energy companies illustrate that 80 % of ghg emission
reduction can be achieved by 2050 without economic
losses (European Climate foundation).
5 th IPCC report, 2013
• We are now for 95 % certain that:
– Growing concentrations of Greenhouse Gasses in the atmosphere
including CO-2 and CH-4 lead to rising global average temperatures;
– The rise of temperature of the last 50 years is for at least the major part,
and possibly in total due to the increased concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere;
– The rise in ghg concentrations is a result of human activities mainly
fossil fuel use and to some extent landuse changes;
– With “business as usual” rising concentrations average temperatures
will continue to rise up 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century,
– Only if global CO-2 and other ghg emissions are reduced by 80 percent
before 2050 there is some chanche that temp. increase maybe limited
to a rise of 2 degrees.
How can we be so sure?
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Radiation physics (experimental verification and theoretical basis);
Growing concentrations (measurements since 1958);
As a result of human activities (measurement, isotopes);
Other planets (measurements);
Geological history of planet earth (measurements);
Record of global average temperatures of the last 50 years
(measurements);
Pattern of warming around the globe and vertically in the atmosphere
(measurements);
Solar variation, volcano's or inherent earth dynamics can not explain recent
warming of 0.6 degrees in 50 years;
There is no plausible scientific argument why growing concentrations of ghg
would not lead to higher temperatures on the surface of the earth.
The outcome of COP 21 in Paris
• Political and economic aspects;
• The 1 ½ to 2 degrees target;
• Top down with the UN in the lead versus bottom up and voluntary
based own national economic opportunities.
• Climate financing: solidarity versus liability;
Why did it take 30 years for the Paris agreement
…...and will it work? ?
• Cost come before benefits; the climate benefits will only become
visible after some 30 to 100 years and more.
• An active climate policy will cause major shifts in power, between
countries and between companies;
• The net economic effects of climate change on the rich northern
countries (middle and north EU, Russia, Canada and USA) are
initially (the first 50 years) relatively small, maybe positive. Net
negative effects likely to become apparent at later stage…beyond
50 to 100 years.
• The denial of the effect of greenhouse gasses on the global climate
has become an ideological issue, promoted especially by politically
right wing groups, groups that are a priori against government
interference in markets and resource use.
Why would it work now, after Paris?
• Countries and companies cannot hide anymore;
• Economic and political reasons to invest in renewable
energies become stronger every day;
• Climate change effects are increasingly visible, that
reminds the public and the leaders of the world;
• What has started out of ecological concern has become
an economic driver in itself;
CO-2 emissies per hoofd van de bevolking 1960 tot 2014 en projecties tot
2020
China investing in renewable energy
The Solar Ascent
Cumulative Global Installations in Gigawatts
Ruimte beslag zonnepanelen als we voor heel nederland
met zon pv in onze energie willen voorzien, nog zonder
opslag capacitiet
Toenemende hoogte en vermogen van
windturbines
Li Ion Battery Experience Curve Compared with PV Experience Curve
LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE
COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE
Historical price (USD/W, USD/Wh)
100
1976
Crystalline Si PV
module
1998
2004
1988
10
2008
2010
1
2014
H1 2014
Li-ion EV battery
pack
0.1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Cumulative production (MW, MWh)
Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD.
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015
m=24.3%
m=21.6%
1,000,000 10,000,000
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
@MLiebreich
#BNEFSummit
13
Implication for the Netherlands
• Catch up with CO-2 policy:
– Now: aiming at minus 17-20 % in 2020;
– New target in UE framework: minus 33 – 40 % in 2030;
– Long-term target: - 90 % in 2050;
• Develop concrete plans and policies for emission
reduction in the agriculture, food and land-use sector;
• Continue adaptation investment such as Delta-program;
How does it effect society?
• Major investment in energy-neutral housing and buildings;
• Major investment in Wind Energy in the North Sea and in Solar
Power homes and park's; over time with power to gas facilities for
storage of energy;
• Electric cars for personal transport and probably hydrogen fed fuel
cells for heavy transport;
• Increasing initiatives towards a bio-based economy in industry;
• Policy initiatives in the field of agriculture, land use and food with the
aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: less animal protein
consumption and more vegetarian life styles
Implications for Wageningen UR
Profetas research results
Wageningen UR and Vrije Universiteit 1999-2006
also FAO “long shadow…” report.
• Food production takes about 75 % of all fresh water;
• Food production takes about 30 % of all land in the
world;
• Food production takes about 20 % of all fossil fuel
energy.
• Food production and consumption produces
presently about 30 % of all greenhouse gasses;
Animal protein versus plant protein:
– Production of plant protein requires only 25 % of land surface in
comparison with animal protein;
– Production of plant protein produces only 25 % of the
greenhouses gasses as compared with animal protein;
– Production of plant protein takes only 2 to 3 % of the water now
used for animal protein;
Implications Wageningen UR agenda
• Focus on plant protein for food production and food
consumption;
• Focus on climate smart agriculture: more carbon take up
by soils and increased resilience regarding climate
change;
• Focus on bio-based economy;
• Focus on adaptation: water, cities, nature conservation
etc…