Transcript The other Arab revolution

Climate Change, Migration and Political
Insurgency
The „other“ Arab Spring?
The Hamburg Conference, July 16-18 2013, Hamburg University
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
17.7.2013
Climate Change and the Arab Awakening
Changing weather, changing power?
First & foremost, Arab Awakening = reaction to out of touch, brutal regimes.
No proven direct causality between effects of climate change and „Arab
Spring“.
However: MENA is already experiencing effects of anthropogenic climate change, like
extended droughts, increased water scarcity and decreasing precipitation.
Hypothesis 1: Such stressors combined with deficiencies in resource management,
political inclusion mechanisms and conflict mitigation strategies could potentially ignite
already volatile environments. Potential accelerant, threat multiplier
Variables: management practices, institutional set-up, infrastructure, economic and
political context, climate change effects, precipitation etc.
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
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Climate Change and the Arab Awakening
Migration – Coping Strategy gone wild?
Migration can function as effective adaptive strategy in times of environmental
change and stress, like land degradation, water scarcity, drought etc. Leaving
after loss of livelihood can be a means to mitigate hardship.
However, mass migration due to loss of livelihood could also contribute to social
and political unrest and turn out to be a threat multiplier in certain
circumstances.
Hypothesis 2: Mass migration movements fuelled the different political
insurgencies in the MENA.
Method: Interviews, Critical Discourse Analysis
Case Studies: Egypt, Syria, Jordan
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
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Climate in the MENA
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
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Case Study Syria
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
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Case Study Syria
Interlaced regime political, socio-economic and climatic
conditions prior to outbreak
• Authoritarian rule under Bashar al-Assad from 2000 onwards  decline of
Ba‘th party, focus on security apparatus and „crony capitalists“, repression of
liberal-secular as well as Kurdish opposition
• forced economic liberalisation  subvention and expense cuts at the
expense of middle and working class; considerable growth of rural-urban
divide (Damascus and Aleppo vs. Rest)
• Islamisation of society  regime legitimation; effects of Iraq war
• drought 2006-10  rural exodus, new tent and satellite towns (around
Damascus and in the South)
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
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Case Study Syria
Conflict dynamics
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de
www.christianefroehlich.de
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