Transcript Prezentace aplikace PowerPoint

Vulnerability and adaptation activities
in the Czech Republic
Jan Pretel
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
3rd EIONET workshop on
„Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation“
Copenhagen, 30.6. – 1.7.2009
Vulnerability research - history
 1991 - 1992
Initial national project (rough estimates)
US Country Study Program
 1993 - 1996
• outcomes used for the National Climate Change Strategy 1999
 1999 - 2002
1st MoE project
• outcomes used for the National Program to Abate the Climate
Change Impacts in the Czech Republic (2003)
 2003 - 2006
several small individual sector oriented
projects (not sufficiently well coordinated)
• outcomes used for evaluation of National Program (2005) and
preparation new Climate Change Policy (2009?)
 2007 - 2011
2nd MoE project
UPdate of existing estimates of climate change
impacts and vulnerabilities in water
management, agriculture and forestry sectors
and proposals for ADAPTation options
(UPADAPT/CZ)
Coordination: Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
Scientific
Cooperation:
Political
consultancy:
Charles University
Czech Academy of Science
Water Research Institute
Crop Research Institute
Ministry of Environment
Ministry of Agriculture
Project orientation
 Regional scenarios update and refine for 2030, 2050 and 2100
 Extreme events variability and frequency analysis
 Update of impacts on water, agriculture and forestry sectors
 Procedures to reduce sectoral vulnerabilities
 Evaluation of previously proposed adaptation options as in National Program
(2003)
 New proposals for adaptations in 3 main sectors
 Recommendations of framework adaptation options for other sectors
(biodiversity, energy, industry, human health, tourism, urban areas)
 Linkage to new Climate Change Policy (2009?) which includes also National
Framework Adaptation Strategy
 Research background for the National Adaptation Plan (final 2011?)
Project structure
Regional climate scenario update and refine
Impacts on hydrological balance and water resources and
adaptation options
Impacts on extreme hydrological events
Impacts on agriculture sector and adaptation options
Impacts on forestry sector and adaptation options
Synthesis of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation
options on the national level
Regional scenario update

RCM ALADIN – CLIMATE/CZ
•
•
•
emission scenario A1B pro období 1961–2050
horizontal resolution 25 km
validation on measured data 1961–1990
time resolution 6 hrs.
o average daily TT, RR, TMAX, TMIN
o model corrections
o

regional scenarios
2030 - A1B, 2050 & 2100 - A1B, A2, B1
• 12 GCM (ENSAMBLES, PRUDENCE, CECILIA)
•
3.0
2.5
Q25
2.0
Q50
1.5
Q75
1.0
0.5
Precipitation change (%)
DJF
MAM
JJA
110%
Q25
100%
Q50
Q75
90%
80%
3.0
2.5
JJA
Q25
2.0
Q50
1.5
Q75
1.0
0.5
1.5
1
0.5
0
SON
110%
Q25
100%
Q50
Q75
90%
80%
DJF
2
JJA
120%
SON
TT 2050 vs. 2030 (Q50)
MAM
RR 2050 vs. 1961-90
Precipitation change (%)
Temperature difference (oC)
3.5
DJF
120%
MAM
TT 2050 vs. 1961-90
SON
RR 2030 vs. 1961-90
DJF
Temperature difference (oC)
3.5
Precipitation change (%)
Temperature difference (oC)
TT 2030 vs. 1961-90
MAM
JJA
SON
RR 2050 vs. 2030 (Q50)
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
TT 2030 vs. 1961–1990
RR 2030 vs. 1961–1990
Vulnerability in WATER
most sensitive sector to climate change in CZ
 average flow rates - decrease from spring to autumn
 reduction /disappearance of water supplies from snow
 enhanced flow rates and groundwater supplies - shift
from spring to end of winter
 eutrophication
 increased evaporation
 variability and changes in distribution of precipitation
 significantly higher risks of floods / droughts
Vulnerability in AGRICULTURE
 lack of water and droughts in the most productive
agricultural areas
 agricultural pests and diseases
 thermal stress
 changes in vegetation period
• shift of vegetation period
• longer frost-free period
• earlier ripening, earlier harvesting
• earlier germination and onset of further phenophases
 photosynthesis acceleration
Vulnerability in FORESTRY
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spruce stands at high risk
lower water balance
extreme weather events - predisposition stressor
fungi, vascular mycosis
insects (spruce bark beetles, etc.)
increased CO2 (effects on growth conditions and
activity)
shift of vegetation level
natural changes in species compositions
MAIN AIM OF THE PROJECT =
Help to increase the adaptive
capacity on national and local levels
WATER
 water retention & revitalization of water systems
 flexibility & effectiveness of water management systems (extreme,
dangerous, uncertain situations), safe passage of floods
 water quality
AGRICULTURE
 cultivated and more resistant varieties of agricultural crops & farm animals
 new agro technical methods
FORESTRY
 diversification & mixtures of tree species
 eliminate risks of insect pests, vascular mycosis and root rot
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
htpp://www.chmi.cz
htpp://www.mzp.cz
[email protected]