Transcript Climate Security 101

Climate Security 101
Francesco Femia & Caitlin Werrell
Co-Directors
The Center for Climate & Security
www.climateandsecurity.org - www.climatesecurity101.org
Is Climate Change A Security Risk?
THREAT MULTIPLIER
- or accelerant of
instability, exacerbates
existing risks to security.
DIRECT THREAT
- on critical infrastructure
underpinning a nation’s
security.
INDIRECT THREAT
- Increases stresses on
critical resources
underpinning a nation’s
security, including water,
food & energy.
High Probability, High Impact Risk (WEF Global Risk Report)
Why Does the Security Community
Care About Climate Change?
RISKS TO CRITICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
Sea level rise, storm surge, wildfires
compromise military installations
and operations, & critical economic
hubs.
GEOSTRATEGIC RISKS
Climate change increases state
fragility and possibility of
international tensions in strategicallysignificant regions
CONFLICT AVOIDANCE
Climate stress on water, food &
energy increases the likelihood of
mass displacement, instability and
conflict.
BIG BLUE RABBIT
Gen. McLeod, PACOM
“Call it climate change, call it the big
blue rabbit…— the military has to
respond to those kinds of things.”
When Did This All Start?
A Climate Security Chronology
Sampling of Significant Climate Security Reports/Actions
•1990s: CIA Environmental Task Force, MEDEA
program
•2003: DoD Office of Net Assessment, An Abrupt
Climate Change Scenario & Its Implications for US
National Security
•2007: CNA Military Advisory Board Report: National
Security & the Threat of Climate Change
•2008: National Intelligence Assessment on the
National Security Implications of Global Climate
Change to 2030
•2009: Establishment of the U.S. Navy Task Force
Climate Change
•2010: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review
•2011: Defense Science Board Report, “Trends and
Implications of Climate Change for National and
International Security”
•2012: U.S. DoD Climate Change Adaptation
Roadmap
•2014: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review
•2015: G7, A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on
Climate and Fragility Risks report
•2015: U.S. National Security Strategy
•See the Climate Security Resource Hub for full list
Can Climate Change Cause
War & Conflict?
Not Likely
Primary Cause of
War Between
Nations
A Factor in Existing
Sub-national Conflicts
Historical Record Not
Sufficient For Predicting
Climatic Impact on
Future Conflicts
Increases Likelihood of
Intra-state Conflict &
Instability
Foresight
Exercises, &
“Games,” are
Important
Where Is Climate Change The
Biggest Threat To Security?
ARCTIC:
Ice Melt & Shifting
Geopolitical Dynamics
With Russia
MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA:
Political & Demographic
Realities, Combined With
Climate Change
FRAGILE STATES:
Greatest Impact On
Unstable, ConflictProne Regions
CENTRAL ASIA:
Fed By Glacial
Waters, Pakistan
Vulnerable
INDO-ASIA PACIFIC:
Growing Coastal And
Urban Population, South
China Sea
Comprehensive Climate
Adaptation &
Mitigation Policies
How Can We Address The Security
Risks Of Climate Change?
Incorporating Climate Into National, Homeland Security, Defense,
Diplomatic And Development Strategies
Recognizing a U.S. National Security Consensus On Climate Change
Addressing Climate At Collective Security Institutions
Climate-proofing Efforts To Enhance Food, Water And Energy Security
Developing Legal And Institutional Structures To Manage Migration As A
Climate Adaptation Strategy
Incorporating Climate Concerns Into Military-Military And CivilianMilitary Cooperation On Disaster Risk Reduction
Improving Understanding Of How Climate Change Pressures Interact With
State Stability And State Legitimacy
Reducing the Risk Profile Via Adaptation and Mitigation
Pillars of a More
Climate Secure World
RESEARCH
POLICY
COMMUNICATIONS
CROSS-SECTORAL COLLABORATION
Sources
Where biggest threat
2013: The Arab Spring and Climate Change. Werrell, C. and Femia,
F. Center for Climate and Security, Center for American Porgress,
The Stimson Center.
2013: Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition: Delivering
Climate, Energy and Resource Security. Mabey, N. et al., E3G
2012: Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in Northwest Africa
Rising Dangers and Policy Options Across the Arc of Tension. Werz,
M. and Conley, L. Center for American Progress and Heinrich Böll
Stiftung
2012: Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the
South China Sea. Cronin, P. et al., Center for a New American
Security (CNAS)
Why does security community care
2014: Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, U.S. Department
of Defense
2014: National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate
Change, CNA Corporation
2014: Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S. Department of
Defense
2014: US Navy Arctic Roadmap: U.S. Department of the Navy
2011: Defense Science Board Task Force Report: Trends and
Implications of Climate Change for National and International
Security: Department of Defense
How do we address security risks
2015: Climate and Security Working Group recommendations
(available upon request)
Conflict
2015: Climate Change as Threat Multiplier: Understanding the Broader
2015: Werrell, Femia and Sternberg, “Did We See it Coming? State
Fragility, Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt,” Nature of the Risk, Center for Climate and Security
SAIS Review of International Affairs, Volume 35, Number 1, Winter-Spring 2014: “National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate
Change,” CNA Corporation
2015, pp. 29-46
2012: Protecting Americans in the 21st Century: Communicating
2014: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict, Findings and Lessons
Priorities for 2012 and Beyond. National Homeland Security
Learned from Five Case Studies in Seven Countries
2012: Syria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest. Femia, F. and Consortium.
2011: Degrees of Risk: Defining a Risk Management Framework for
Werrel, C. Center for Climate and Security
Climate Security. Mabey, N. et al. E3G
2012: Special Issue: Climate Change and Conflict. Journal of Peace
Research.
Read More
• The Center for Climate and Security:
www.climateandsecurity.org
• Climate Security Resource Hub:
www.climateandsecurity.org/resources
• Climate Security 101:
www.climatesecurity101.org