Transcript Slide 1 - climateknowledge.org

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2014
April 8, 2014
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14
• Something I am playing with
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
• Assignment
– Emailed
– Posted
Politics of
Dismissal Entry
Model
Uncertainty
Description
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Interesting new document?
– OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The
Consequences of Inaction
Today
• Framework for thinking about impacts and
response via planning
– Public health – example
– Ecosystems
– Water
– Agriculture
– Etc.
• National security
Climate Change and Public Health
• Public Health, esp. heatwaves, will be used as
an example to show the elements of a real
problem and its relation to climate change.
• How does it relate to mitigation, adaptation?
– policy
– law
– etc.
Climate Change and Public Health
• Acknowledgement and thanks to
– Marie S. O’Neill (Michigan) and a team in
School of Public Health
Pathways by Which Climate
Change Affects Health
WHO: Climate Change and Public Health
Health Impacts of Climate Change
• Increased heat waves and shifts in urban air
quality
• Vector born diseases
• Range and seasonality of infectious diseases
• Rising sea levels and extreme weather events =
dislocation, environmental refugees = global
security issue
• Threatened food supply, release of toxins into
environment
• Decrease in water quality
Vector Born Disease
• Dengue, malaria, west nile virus, others
• Differential exposure on a global level
• Some unexpected by products - spraying
may cause chronic disease, drug
resistance
Extreme Weather Events
•
•
•
•
Injuries and death
Long term psychological problems
Increased infectious disease
Contaminated water supplies
Quantifying and forecasting climate
change public health impacts
• Colder climates, e.g., Netherlands, may
benefit
• Hotter climates may have more effects
with projected rise of 1.4-5.8o C
• Overall expected impact: increased
weather-related deaths
Co-evolution
Useful way to think about impact and adaptation
BAD
GOOD
Temperature
(other environmental parameter)
For many things: living things and ecosystems
• There is an optimal range of an
environmental parameter, e.g.
temperature or moisture.
– Above or below this range risk increases
• The function looks like a parabola
– May be skewed
Skewed towards hot being dangerous
BAD
GOOD
Temperature
(other environmental parameter)
Skewed towards cold being dangerous
BAD
GOOD
Temperature
(other environmental parameter)
Heatwaves
• Public health experts count heatwaves as
the most consequential environmental
health risk.
– examples are Chicago Heat Wave 1995,
European Heat Wave 2003, Russian Heat
Wave 2010
What is a heatwave?
• Not so easy to define, because we have
now brought in the human dimension.
– Not the same in Houston and Chicago
• Extreme high heat?
• Persistent high heat?
Humans and heat
• Environmental heat exposure
• Exercise induced heat
• Ability to cool
An observation
• Extreme heat and exercise
– greater than 105 is bad!
• Persistent heat combined with
environmental heat exposure and ability to
cool
– strongly dependent on acclimation
– persistent night time minimum temperatures
are high
– this has been the most deadly
Heat Waves
in Future
Observed
Modeled
Predicted change in the future
Meehl and Tebaldi, Science, 2004
Heatwaves in future
• More frequent
• More intense
• Greater duration
The heatwave problem
• This problem already exists (short term).
• Climate change will amplify it.
• Mitigation of greenhouse gases will have
only indirect effect (long term)
• What are the most effective responses?
Insights from sociology/geography
• 1995 Chicago heat wave: neighborhood
influences at small scale
• Population stability, social structure more
predictive than race
Eric Klinenberg (2002) Heat wave: A social autopsy of
disaster
• St. Louis: spatial features (heat island,
concentrated poverty) determined risk
Smoyer-Tomic, K, Social Science & Medicine, 1998
There are Adaptation Measures
• Federal versus city-level
• Existing:
– Heat warning systems
– Emergency management
– Air conditioning
Adaptation Measures
Health
outcome
Legislative
Technical
Educational
Cultural and
Behavioural
Thermal
Building
guidelines
Housing, public buildings,
urban planning to reduce
heat island effects, air
conditioning
Early
warning
systems
Clothing, siesta
Vector control, Vaccination,
impregnated bednets.
Sustainable surveillance,
prevention and control
programs
Health
education
Water Storage
practices
Genetic/molecular
screening of pathogens.
Improved water treatment
(e.g., filters). Improved
sanitation (e.g., latrines)
Boil water
alerts
Washing hands
and other
hygiene
behavior. Use of
pit latrines
Vectorborne
diseases
Water borne
diseases
Watershed
protection
laws
Water quality
regulation
Complexity
WEALTH
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
Lessons from heat waves
• Existing problem with existing system to address
the problem
– Some good, some bad
• Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the
average
– Hence want to know how extreme events will change
• Not clearly and distinctly addressed by efforts to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
– Motivator for “Kyoto like” policy?
Lessons from heat waves
• Strongest levers for addressing the
problem are
– Societal capability (social integration,
structure, communications)
– Environmental warnings and alerts
– Education (first responders, general public,
....)
– Engineering (air conditioners, green spaces,
...)
Repeatedly see this pattern
• Existing problem with existing system to address
the problem
• Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the
average
• Strongest levers for addressing the problem are
–
–
–
–
Societal capability
Environmental warnings and alerts
Education
Engineering
Heat Wave System: Basic elements and values
HUMAN HEALTH AND
PHYSIOLOGICAL
INFORMATION
HEAT-RELATED
ENVIRONMENTAL
PRODUCTS
(e.g heat index)
COMMUNICATION
of PRODUCTS
ACTIONS BASED
ON PRODUCTS
and
COMMUNICATION
Policy
Research and Validation
ENVIRONMENTAL
OBSERVATIONS and
FORECASTS
Three basic types of information
E3
E2
G3
E4
E1
G2
En
P3
G4
G1
P2
Gn
Environmental
Information
Geographical
Information
EW
CS
P4
P1
Pn
Population
Information
VP1
VP2
Today
• Framework for thinking about impacts and
response via planning
– Public health – example
– Ecosystems
– Water
– Agriculture
– Etc.
• National security
Reference Material
• 2007: National Security and Climate Change,
Retired Generals and Admirals
• 2009: National Security Energy and Climate,
Retired Generals and Admirals
• 2010: Quadrennial Defense Review
• 2012: Security and Water Resources
• 2014: Quadrennial Defense Review
Thread through recent defense security positions
• Defense-related Think Tank: Center for
Data Analysis
• Quadrennial Defense Review
• Strong link of energy to Department of
Defense activities
• Intelligence Reviews
Approach
• What are the security risks?
• Which affect American interests?
• What actions should America take?
• Ultimately focus on integrated impacts
Basic Findings (1)
• Increase scale of weather-related
ecological and human disruptions:
“sustained natural and human disasters
on a scale far beyond what we see today.”
• Disruption: remember we are in balance,
disruption and uncertainty are major
players in defense and markets
Basic Findings (2)
• Threat Multiplier
– Esp. Middle East, Africa, Asia
– Food production, public health, clean water
– Large migrations
– Failed states
Basic Findings (3)
• To Developed World
– Increased pressure from immigration
– Increase use of resources to respond to
humanitarian disasters
• Interplay between National Security,
Energy, Energy Dependence
– Increase vulnerability to single natural events
and terrorism
Mini-summary National Security
“The impacts of climate change may increase the frequency, scale, and
complexity of future missions, including defense support to civil
authorities, while at the same time undermining the capacity of our
domestic installations to support training activities. Our actions to
increase energy and water security, including investments in energy
efficiency, new technologies, and renewable energy sources, will
increase the resiliency of our installations and help mitigate these
effects.”
2014: Quadrennial Defense Review
Basic Recommendations (1)
• Climate change needs to be integrated
into defense strategy
• U.S. should work more strongly to mitigate
the impacts of climate change
• U.S. should help build adaptive capacity
and resilience in the developing world
Basic Recommendations (2)
• U.S. Department of Defense should
aggressively pursue energy efficiency and
alternative energy
• U.S. should assess impact of climate
change on assets
– Sea level rise
– Extreme events
– Assets in low lying islands
Quadrennial Defense Review
• Change of operating environment
– Geopolitical impacts: Instability of fragile nations
– Humanitarian efforts
– Environmental security
• Impact on assets
– National Intelligence Survey in 2008: 30 installations
already face sea level threats
• Strategic Environmental Research and
Development Program
• Energy efficiency and alternative energy
Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change
Task Force Energy
• Challenges
– When, is important. (2020, 2030, … )
– Changing geography
– Arctic Maritime (clear for 4 weeks @
2035, 3 months @ 2050 )
• Commerce in shipping
– Water and resource scarcity
– Sea level rise impact on installations
Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change
Task Force Energy
• Opportunities
– Cooperative partnerships
– Energy security
– Infrastructure recapitalization
Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change
Task Force Energy
• Wild cards
– Abrupt climate change (Fast changes, jumps
from one to another.)
– Geoengineering
– Ocean Acidification
Climate Change Case Studies?
•
•
•
•
•
Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011
Russian heat wave and drought 2010
Texas drought and heat 2011
The 2011 Japanese earthquake
The Arab Spring
– Markets
– Relation to energy
Problem Solving Figures
We arrive at levels of granularity
WEALTH
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Structure of Problem Solving
(http://glisaclimate.org/home )
Skill Set
• Analysis
– Distinguish between facts and inferences
• Evaluation / Judgment
– What is the quality of the knowledge?
• Synthesis
– How do pieces fit together?
Deconstructing how to think about projects.
1) Describe what is
in the picture. What
are the facts? Make
an inventory of what
is known. Make an
inventory of what is
not known.
4) What to do?
Consequences?
Options?
2) Analysis: How
credible is the
information? What
is the integrity of the
reporting? How
complete is the
picture? Is there
derived knowledge?
…
3) Does it matter?
Impact.
Consequences.
Relations
Why?
Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition
• The details of the problem often de-correlate
pieces of the problem.
– What do I mean? Think about heat waves?
• This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based
experts, and the ability to generalize.
– For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.
• The consideration of the system as a whole
causes tensions – trade offs - optimization
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
Development of International Approach to Climate Change
1988
1992
1995
1997
2001
2009
2007
IPCC
established
Framework
Convention
(UNFCCC)
Kyoto
Protocol
Copenhagen
Accord
Scientific
assessment
Non-binding
aim
Binding
emissions
target
Keep warming
less than 2 C
Iconic and Fundamental Figures
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN: ENERGY, HEAT
EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Sun-Earth System in Balance
SUN
EARTH
PLACE AN
INSULATING
BLANKET
AROUND
EARTH
The addition to the
blanket is CO2
FOCUS ON
WHAT IS
HAPPENING
AT THE
SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more information
Temperature and CO2: The last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
The Earth System
SUN
CLOUD-WORLD
ATMOSPHERE
ICE
(cryosphere)
OCEAN
LAND
Radiation Balance Figure
Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)
1998
Climate Forcing
(-2.7, -0.6)
2001
Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001)
(-3.7, 0.0)