Transcript Globalization: Climate change and energy crisis

Globalization
climate change
and
energy crisis
globalization
• as a result of world wide
expansion of the industrial
development model
We’ll focus on the intertwined
process of:
• World wide expansion of industrial
economy model based on intensive use
of oil
• Mounting global warming for the most
part a consequence of oil based
economies, finally resulting in climate
change
expansion
• This expansion follows its ‘natural’ course, by
penetrating all other kinds of economic
arrangements
• Serving its own needs
• Also consciously promoted (or enforced) by
WB, IMF, WTO and development aid
agencies
• Mainly professed and executed as common
sense economics and world view
Energy use
• Inherent to this model is the intensive
use of fossil fuels, mainly oil
• This oil based economy is everywhere;
• Even most of world food production is
globalized along oil intensive lines
Economic scarcity
• The growing energy needs lead energy
suppliers to an extensive search for oil
• Today they cannot keep up with
worldwide demand because of capacity
limitations to exploit this raw material
fully (drilling / refining)
Physical scarcity
More oil exploitation and use
will lead to physical scarcity:
there is only a fixed amount of
oil on this planet
Now some basic maths
comes into play
Energy to produce energy
• It takes a lot of oil to produce oil – the
US case:
• 1916: 1 barrel to recover 28 barrels
• 1985: 1 barrel to recover 2 barrels
• This ratio is still dropping
production peaking
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US production peaked in 1970
UK
2000/2001
Saudi Arabia will peak in 2015+
Worldwide
2006-2015+
discovery peaking
overall discoveries peaked in
the 1960s
with just 1 new barrel of oil
being discovered today for
every 4 that is consumed
Peaking is not running out of
oil,
but oil will be pumped on an
inexorably declining basis
Climate Change
• IPCC consensus: climate change is
‘unequivocal’ and may bring ‘abrupt’
and ‘irreversable’ impacts
• ‘humankind’s emissions of greenhouse
gases are more than 90% likely to be
the main cause’
Greenhouse gases
greenhouse gases (GHG) =
gases emitted by combustion of
fossil fuels; they cause the
atmosphere’s warming up
(carbondioxide etc.)
from economy to climate
change
• With expanding (oil based) economy the use
of oil expands,
• and consequently greenhouse gas emissions,
• greenhouse gases cause climate change for
the largest part,
• so climate change is ultimately connected to
global economic expansion
GHG effects in the Caribbean
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•
•
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Rising sea levels
Major changes to coastlines
Inundating lowlying areas
Warming up of seawater energizes
hurricanes
• Etc.
Urgency to reverse the trend
• IPCC: within a decade
• Kyoto Protocol: international agreement
to cut GHG emissions
• EU and Davos: agree to cut GHG
• US: universities, federal states,
municipalities etc.
Best policies
End the use of oil and other
fossil fuels
(WB admits but refuses to adapt
lending policies)
Built energy saving and nonfossil fuel economy
obstacles
• Existing economic model, its practices
and current ‘common sense’ economics
and world view prevent wise policies to
be practised
Model in real danger
• Being inherently an oil based model while
• Urgent need to cut GHG emissions
• Inevitability that oil stocks deplete during this
century
• Another development path is urgently needed
to manage this structure problem, but is
another paradigm available?
Curacao geopolitics
• World oil depletion is inevitable – will the
last few drops be available to small
markets of small island states?
• Transition to sustainable and clean
energy systems is inevitable and
urgently needed, especially for small
islands – our geopolitical challenge
Restructure energy system
• Save energy on massive scale
• New energy sources: sun, sea and wind
power, also muscular strength
• Restructure land use (avoid urban
sprawls)
• Restructure energy sector
Oil dependency and new
dependency
• Does the use of new energy systems lead to
energy autonomy?
• Most improbable, given our existing social,
economic and political organization
• Oil industry is buying in on renewables
• Knowledge gap with industrial countries
• Current lending policies of countries and
development agencies
What to do – our geopolitics
• Invest in and develop own sustainable
and clean energy systems (cooperation
with SIDS)
• Disconnect energy sector from refinery
and CUC (BOO)
Meet energy challenge by
strengthening our society from
within
• maximize energy autonomy for citizens
• decentralize and maximize
household/neigborhood ownership of
small energy systems
• define new tasks for energy sector to
sustain abovementioned new policies
Amigu di Tera / Friends of the
Earth Curaçao
Lloyd Narain