Transcript Tajikistan

Second National Communication
of the Republic of TAJIKISTAN
under the UNFCCC
Ilhomjon RAJABOV
Head, Climate Change Centre
Side Event: Thirteenth Session of the SBSTA/SBI UNFCCC,
Bonn, Germany
5 June 2009
Main outcomes of TJK SNC
preparation process (1):
Vulnerability and Adaptation
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The project touched the following aspects in terms of vulnerability and
adaptation assessment:
Change in air temperature and precipitation patterns in the lowlands
and mountain regions of the country [1940s – 2000s]
Impact of climate change on natural resources and adaptation:
- Glaciers
- Water resources
- Natural ecosystems, forests, land and soil
Impact of climate change on economic development and adaptation :
- Water economy
- Agriculture
Impact of climate change on human health and adaptation
Change in air temperature
For the past 60 years air temperature in
selected parts of the country increased by
1C (populated areas in south-central TJK).
Precipitation and droughts
• Increasing variability in
precipitation
• Changes in extreme
events (more severe
dry and wet episodes)
Many small glaciers in Tajikistan totally
disappeared due to recent climate warming
Former glacier
Due to ice melting risks of long
term water deficit and glacial
lakes formation and sudden
outburst floods are increasing
Climate change projections for
the mountain regions
Pamirs and Tien-Shan
Water towers of Central Asia
Ice and snow melting may
trigger water problems
Main outcomes of TJK SNC
preparation process (2):
Greenhouse Gas Inventory
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The Tajik GHG (greenhouse gas inventory) covers the period 1990-2003 (2005).
The main sectors considered in the Tajik GHG Inventory:
- Energy
- Industrial processes
- Agriculture
- Waste
- Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
The main greenhouse gases:
- CO2
- CH4
- N2O
- CF4 and C2F6 (from aluminium production)
- GHG precursors and SO2
Main outcomes of TJK SNC
preparation process (2):
Greenhouse Gas Inventory
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In 1990-2003 the highest GHG emissions were observed in 1990 and reached
25 million metric tons in CO2-equivalent. The lowest GHG emissions were
observed in 2000 at 7 million metric tons in CO2-equivalent.
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The maximum decrease of GHG was in ENERGY sector (from 17 to 3 mln.
tons), whereas the minimum decrease was in AGRICULTURE (from 5 to 4
mln. tons). The increase of GHG emissions is evident in the TRASNPORT
sector due to increase in a number of vehicles in the recent decade.
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For the last 15 years the structure of the GHG emissions significantly changed.
In 1990 the ENERGY sector contributed majority (70%) of the total emissions,
AGRICULTURE 20%, INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 10% and WASTE 3%.
However, in 2003-2005 due to the overall economic decline and energy crisis
situation changed. The contribution by the ENERGY SECTOR reduced to 30%,
while the share of AGRICULTURAL SECTOR increased to 50% of the total.
Decrease of CO2 in the
energy sector is mostly
due to decreased fossil
fuel use and energy crisis
Energy use and consumption
SNC process and benefits:
Climate change policy and mitigation
• Climate change policy:
- Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by TAJ in 2008
- Adoption of the National Programme of renewable energy
development for 2007-2015
- Follow-up the National Action Plan on climate change mitigation
• Mitigation activities:
- Development of renewable energy, mainly hydropower (in the last
decade about 20 small and medium HPPs were installed)
- Energy efficiency (new energy efficient equipment and electronic
devices installed in the key energy-intense industry such as Tajik
Aluminum Plant; transportation network improved)
- Plans for substantial growth of hydropower production by 2015-20
- Afforestation efforts
Key challenges in
preparation of the TJK SNC:
• Lack of human and technical capacity to:
- model long-term climate change scenarios and
impacts in the mountains and valleys of Tajikistan
- long-term forecast of water resource availability in of
the main rivers of Tajikistan (cross-border)
• Lack of legal instruments to implement climate change
initiatives and projects at the national level
• Lack of awareness among policy-makers to proceed
with climate change mitigation and adaptation
Next steps:
Prospects for the subsequent National
Communications
• Climate change and national security : cross-sector linkages
• Update of the national GHG Inventory
• Assessment of the potential to reduce GHG emissions in residential
and industrial sectors through CDM projects aiming at energy
efficiency and development of renewables
• Long-term water availability in the main rivers of Tajikistan and
strategic implications for the Central Asian region
• Long-term prediction of climate change and consideration of the
indicators other than T and Precipitation (e.g. humidity, frequency of
extreme weather events, snow accumulation in the mountains, etc.)
• Increase in climate change research: exploration of paleoclimate in
the mountains, impact of climate change on flora and fauna, glaciers.
• Popularisation of climate change findings and concerns among the
policy-makers and the general public
Thank you for your
attention!
Ilhomjon Rajabov
Head of climate change center, Agency
on Hydrometeorology.
47 shevchenko str, Dushanbe Tajikistan
Tel/Fax: +992 372 27 61 81
E-mail: [email protected]
www.meteo.tj