Transcript LED Statewide Greenhouse Gas Inventory Project

STATUS UPDATE
LED STATEWIDE GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY PROJECT
Presentation to
LSU Center for Energy Studies
Industry Associates
By
Mike D. McDaniel, Ph.D.
LSU Center for Energy Studies
March 12, 2009
LED GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY PROJECT
MEETING AGENDA
 Project Background
 GHG Regulation Update
 Project Status
 Task1 – GHG Inventory
 Task 2 – Other States Activities
 Task 3 – High Level Economic Impacts Assessments
 Task 4 – Recommendations
 Questions/Discussion
2
LSU CES Proposal
LED GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY PROJECT
GHG Regulations Developments



Obama Administration
 New Energy/Environment Team
Jackson, Chu, Browner, Sutley, Salazar
New Congress
 Boxer (Chair, Senate Environment & Public Works Com.)
Wants climate bill by year end before the Copenhagen Climate Conference
 Waxman (Chair, House Energy & Commerce Com.)
Wants climate bill by Memorial Day
 Markey (Chair, House Energy and Environment Subcom.)
Markey retains chair of Select Com. On Energy Independence and Global Warming
 Scalise added to House Energy and Commerce Comm. (Energy & Environ Subcom.)
 Pelosi and Reid call for one-bill energy and climate strategy
EPA
 Proposed CO2 geological sequestration rule Jul08
 Required by 2008 Approp. Act to develop mandatory GHG reporting rule by Jun09
 Johnson Dec08 memo pans regulation of CO2 under CAA PSD per EAB Deseret decision
 Obama instructs EPA to reconsider CA waiver for regulation of vehicle GHG emissions
 Announcement of proposed national GHG inventory and reporting rule (March 10)
 Internal EPA document shows endangerment finding on fast track (proposed April 30)
LED GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY PROJECT
Project Purpose and Goals
Purpose:
The overarching purpose of the proposed work is to help prepare Louisiana for the
possible federal regulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) and to assure that the state’s
economic competitiveness is not compromised and that economic development
opportunities are recognized.
Goals (Tasks):
1. Development of a comprehensive state-wide greenhouse gas inventory.
2. Conduct a thorough review of measures being taken or contemplated by other
states to accommodate climate change concerns or expected federal
greenhouse gas regulations.
3. Prepare a high-level assessment of the impacts of the most likely federal
greenhouse gas regulatory schemes on Louisiana’s economy.
4. Prepare a list of potential state and industry strategies for responding to
requirements and opportunities brought by federal greenhouse gas regulation.
Stakeholder Involvement
Project Advisory Team
Team Member
Affiliation
Interest Areas
Brian Bond
AEP
Electric Utilities
David Castille
LED
LED Economic Competiveness
Jason El Koubi
LED
Economic Development
Mike French
LDNR
Energy, Energy Efficiency
Karen Gautreaux
Nature Conservancy
Conservation, NGOs
Henry Graham
LCA
Chemical Manufacturing
Richard Metcalf
LMOGA
Oil, Gas, Refining
Paul Miller
LDEQ
Environment, Emissions
Will Perkins
Georgia-Pacific
Pulp & Paper
Terry Ryder
Consultant
Government Affairs
Emily Stich
LABI
Business, Commerce
Daniel Thomas
LSU AgCenter
Agriculture, Forestry
Scope of Work
Task 1. – Development of a Comprehensive State-Wide Greenhouse Gases Inventory
Ag Module Users Guide
CO2 from Fossil Fuels Users Guide
Coal Users Guide
Industrial Processors Users Guide
Land Use Change and Forestry Users Guide
Mobile Combustion Users Guide
Natural Gas and Oil Users Guide
Solid Waste Users Guide
Stationary Combustion Users Guide
Wastewater Users Guide
Projection Tool Users Guide
Synthesis Tool Users Guide
Scope of Work
Task 1. Development of a Comprehensive State-Wide Greenhouse Gas Inventory.
EPA State Inventory Tool (SIT) Worksheets (1990-2006)
Sector/Spreadsheet
CO2
AgModule.xls
CO2FFC Module.xls
CH4
N2O
X
X
PFC
SF6
X
X
X
X
Coal Module.xls
X
IP Module.xls
X
Land-Use Change and Forestry Module.xls
X
Mobile Combustion.xls
X
X
X
X
X
Natural Gas and Oil Module.xls
X
X
Solid Waste Module.xls
X
X
X
Stationary Combustion Module.xls
X
X
Wastewater Module.xls
X
X
*Completed
HFC
Findings
*228.3 MMTCO2e
Findings
TOP TWELVE STATES EMISSIONS (2005)
(MILLION METRIC TONS OF CO2)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
TX
CA
PA
OH
Data Source: EIA, 2008.
FL
IL
IN
NY
MI
GA
LA
NC
Findings
2005 CO2 Emissions
700
625
600
Million MT of CO2
500
400
263
300
186
200
183
142
61
63
100
0
AL
AR
FL
GA
LA
MS
TX
Findings
Louisiana CO2 Emissions from
Fossil Fuel Consumption (1990-2005)
Million Metric Tons of CO2
250
200
150
180.1
183.1
100
50
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Energy Information Administration
Findings
National CO2 Emissions Reduction Goals Applied to Louisiana
Million Metric Tons of CO2
250
200
180.1
*1990 levels by 2020
183.1
150
*New Obama
Administration Goal =
14% reduction from 2005
levels by 2020.
100
50
* 80% reduction by 2050
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Energy Information Administration
Findings
2006 Louisiana *FFC CO2 Emissions
By Fuel Type
2006 Louisiana FFC CO2 Emissions
By Sector
Residential
1%
Commercial
1%
Coal
12%
Electric Power
19%
Natural Gas
37%
Petroleum
51%
* FFC = Fossil Fuel Combustion
Transportation
27%
Industrial
52%
Findings
Louisiana CO2 Emissions from
Fossil Fuel Consumption (1990-2005)
Million Metric Tons of CO2
250
200
Electric Power
Transportation
150
Industrial
Commercial
100
Residential
50
Source: Energy Information Administration
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Findings
2005 Energy CO2 Emissions by State and Industrial Sector for
Fossil Fuel Combustion
700
MILLION METRIC TONS CO2
600
500
TOTAL
400
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORTATION
300
ELECTRIC GENERATION
200
100
0
AL
AR
FL
GA
LA
MS
TX
VT
Data Source: EPA, 2008
Scope of Work
Task 1. Development of a Comprehensive State-Wide Greenhouse Gas Inventory.
VERY PRELIMINARY GHG INVENTORY REPORT OUTLINE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
1.2 PURPOSE OF STUDY
1.3 APPROACH
2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 BASIC HIGH-LEVEL INVENTORY TOOLS
2.2 SOURCE/SECTOR-SPECIFIC INVENTORY METHODS
2.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE/QUALITY CONTROL PROCEDURES
3. RESULTS
3.1 STATE-LEVEL SUMMARY
3.1.1 Louisiana Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
3.1.2 Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Combustion of Fossil Fuels
3.2 SECTOR/SOURCE-SPECIFIC EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
3.2.1 Electrical Generation and Consumption
3.2.2 Transportation
3.2.3 Commercial Buildings
3.2.4 Residential Buildings
3.2.5 Key Industrial Sectors/Processes
3.2.5.1 Key Industry Sectors

Basic Chemical Manufacturing

Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard

Petroleum Refining

Fertilizer Manufacturing

Oil and Gas Exploration, Production and Delivery
3.2.5.2 EPA State Inventory Tool Industrial Processes
Scope of Work
Task 1. Development of a Comprehensive State-Wide Greenhouse Gas Inventory.
3.2.6 Agriculture
3.2.6.1 Methane Emissions from Domesticated Animals
3.2.6.2 Manure Management
3.2.6.2 Agricultural Soils Management
3.2.6.3 Rice Cultivation
3.2.6.4 Agriculture Residue Burning
3.2.7 Land-use Change and Forestry
3.2.7.1 Forest Carbon Flux
3.2.7.2 Liming of Agricultural Soils
3.2.7.3 Urban Trees
3.2.7.4 N20 from Settlement Soils
3.2.7.5 Forest Fires
3.2.7.6 Landfilled Yard Trimmings and Food Scraps
3.2.8 Waste Management
3.2.8.1 Municipal Solid Wastes
3.2.8.2 Wastewater Treatment
3.3 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS
4. KEY TERMS AND ACRONYMS
5. REFERENCES
Scope of Work
Task 2. Review and Evaluation of Activities Undertaken by Other States to
Accommodate Possible Greenhouse Gas Regulation and/or Climate Change Concerns
Regional Initiatives
States with Climate Plans
States with GHG Registries
States with Climate Policy Groups
States with GHG Emissions Targets
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
17FEB09
Scope of Work
Task 2. Review and Evaluation of Activities Undertaken by Other States to
Accommodate Possible Greenhouse Gas Regulation and/or Climate Change Concerns
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards
Residential Building Energy Codes
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Commercial Building Energy Codes
Scope of Work
Task 2. Review and Evaluation of Activities Undertaken by Other States to
Accommodate Possible Greenhouse Gas Regulation and/or Climate Change Concerns
ENTITY
REDUCTION GOAL
BY DATE
FROM BASELINE
REFERENCE
NOTES
Arizona
11% all cars zero
emissions
2011 NA
Arizona
to 2000 levels by 2020;
to 50% below 2000 levels
by 2040
2020
2000 AZ Central.com 1-26-08
California
California
to 1990 levels
to 1990 levels
2020
2020
1990 TIME.com Wind Shift by Bryan Walsh 1-23-08 Global Warming Solutions Act (Assembly Bill 32)
1990 ClimateWire
California
California
Connectecut
Florida
Florida
10% reduction C output
in transportation fuel
80%
10% below 1990
80%
80%
2020 2007?
2050 not given
2020
2050
2050 not given
www.sacbee.com 3-2-08
Greenwire 1-22-08
California law A.B.32 Climate law
1990 www.pewclimate.com 6-9-08
1990 www.Jacksonville.com 4-4-08
Gov. Charlie Crist
TIME.com Wind Shift by Bryan Walsh 1-23-09
Florida
Florida
Florida
10% by 2012, 255 by
2017, and 40% by 2025
to 2000 levels
to 1990 levels
2017
2025
FL Executive Order 07-126
2000 FL Executive Order 07-127
1990 FL Executive Order 07-127
Florida
reduce to 80% of 1990
levels
2050
1990 FL Executive Order 07-127
40%
2025 2008?
80%
2050
www.bizjournals.com 2-15-08
Austin American Statesman 3-2-09
2007 www.startibune.com 2-23-08
Florida State
Government
Maryland
Minnesota
Montana
New York
Utah
Virginia
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Carbon Neutral
EGU CO2 performance
std
Reduce energy
consumption by 15%
28%
30%
70%
22%
Greenwire 1-25-08
DOE/EIA-0573 - 2006
2015
2020
2025 2008?
2050
2022
16% by 2018 and beyond
Gov. Janet Napolitano's Climate Action Plan w 49 initiatives
10% by 2012; 25% by 2017; 40% by 2025
Municipal operations
No EGU burning coal constructed w/o 50% CO2 capture
ClimateWire
2005 Utah DEQ and Pew Climate 6-23-08
www.newsadvance.com 2-6-08
Kaine administration state energy plan
1990 http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=766587
1990 http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=766587
Scope of Work
Task 3. High-Level Assessment of the Impacts of the Most Likely Federal GHG
Regulatory Schemes on Louisiana’s Economy
Preliminary High-Level Assessments of Potential Impacts – Dr. Dismukes
Work Will Commence Near Completion of GHG Inventory
Some Initial Work Begun on Electric Utilities
Considerable Number of Economic Impact Assessments of Climate Bills
Proposed Last Year
Scope of Work
Task 3. High-Level Assessment of the Impacts of the Most Likely Federal GHG
Regulatory Schemes on Louisiana’s Economy
Scope of Work
Task 3. High-Level Assessment of the Impacts of the Most Likely Federal GHG
Regulatory Schemes on Louisiana’s Economy
Scope of Work
Task 3. High-Level Assessment of the Impacts of the Most Likely Federal GHG
Regulatory Schemes on Louisiana’s Economy
Source: Peter Orszag (CBO) testimony before U.S. House of Representatives Committee
on Ways and Means, September 18,2008.
Scope of Work
Task 4. Development of Recommendations for Potential State and Industry
Strategies
 This task will employ information developed in Tasks 1-3 to develop
recommended strategies for the State and industry for responding to
requirements and opportunities brought by federal GHG regulation.
 The recommendations will be developed within the context of economic
competiveness with other states given Louisiana’s particular situation
and actions being taken or proposed by other states.
Proposed Project Schedule
Questions/Discussion/Suggestions?