Transcript PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January 2009

PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January 2009
World Bank Climate Investment Funds
Report of PPCR Expert Group on Country
Selection Process
27 January 2009
PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting
27 Change
January
2009
Climate
in Africa
Context
Remit
• Identify 5-10 countries or groups or countries for participation in PPCR
• Address a number of criteria:
 vulnerability
 eligibility
 country preparedness & rapid results
 country distribution (regional)
 Hazard types
 Coherence & value addition
 Replicability & sustainability
 Scalability & development impact
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2009
Climate
in Africa
Addressing criteria in ToR
Criteria
• Hazard (V), vulnerability (I) & preparedness (III) addressed explicitly
• Country distribution (IV) addressed through choice of regions
• Eligibility (II) considered - countries not selected if ineligible
• Replicability & sustainability (VII) related to regional contexts
• Scalability & development impact (VIII) function of development &
hazard contexts
• Coherence & value addition (VI) depends on specific national contexts
• To a significant extent, VI, VII & VIII will depend on nature of programmes &
projects supported, & how they are implemented - cannot pre-judge
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Climate
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How to approach the problem?
Practical considerations
• Short timescale
• How to bring some coherence & transparency to process?
• What data to use?
• How to deploy data? Problems with indicator-driven approaches…
• How to address criteria?
• How to ensure selection relevant to climate change?
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The EG’s approach
Risk assessment approach
• Address climate change risks faced by countries
• Risk arises from interaction of hazards with underlying vulnerability
Hazard as an entry point for analysis
STEP 1
• Identify long-term, large-scale climate change hazards
• Select climate change “hot-spots” where these hazards are high
STEP 2
• Identify which countries are most vulnerable to hazard(s) in question
Use indicators relevant to region, hazard & development context
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Hazards are not just about extremes and variability
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Climate change “hot-spots” in Africa
North Africa / Maghreb
• Extreme desiccation - risks to water availability,
agriculture, rangelands, food security
Southern Africa
• Desiccation coupled with risk of landscape/ecosystem
collapse in greater Kalahari region & ENSO impacts
• Risks to livelihoods, food security, water resources
Sahel
• Highly uncertain, increased rainfall variability, possibility
of wetter conditions but not necessarily sustained
• How to deal with decadal-scale variability & longer?
Risks of maladaptation
Annual temperature & precipitation changes over Africa between
1980-1999 & 2080-2099 from MMD-A1B simulations, men for
21 models.
Source: IPCC (2007)
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2009
Climate
in Africa
Indicators for vulnerability screening in North Africa / Maghreb
ISO3V10
DZA
EGY
LBY
MRT
MAR
TUN
Country
Alg eria
Egypt
Libya
Mauritania
Morocco
Tunis ia
LECZ
3.96
38.19
15.60
29.25
8.04
14.77
CDRIa
0.71
0.33
0
190.22
1.32
2.13
IWS
85
98
53
81
93
FI
4
4
<2.5
10
6
<2.5
HDI
104
112
56
137
126
91
CVI
4
4
0
4
4
4
CDVI
0
0
0
13
1
1
CDRIb
4
4
..
3
4
4
•
LECZ - population in low-elevation coastal zone
•
CRDIa - total no. affected by climate-related disasters 1978-2007, scaled by 2007 popn.
•
IWS - % of population with access to improved water source
•
FI - food insecurity inferred from % of population undernourished
•
HDI - human development index rank, proxy for adaptive capacity
•
CVI - climate vulnerability index (emphasising water)
•
CDVI - number of occurrences in top fifth of vulnerability index with 13 different weights
•
CDRIb - historical climate disaster risk on scale 1-5 based across related indices for 1990s
•
RAI - Resource allocation index, proxy for country preparedness
RAI
---3.38
---
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2009
Climate
in Africa
Other “hot-spot” regions identified
South Asia: Exposed to changes in water availability resulting from loss of
Himalayan glaciers. Loss of water outside monsoon season, also extremes, SLR.
Southeast Asia: High exposure to sea-level rise and associated coastal climate
change hazards due to low-lying land, megadeltas, high population.
Central Asia: Exposed to desiccation as a result of high temperature increases,
significant reductions in rainfall & loss of snow-melt from mountain regions.
Andean region: Exposed to severe reductions in water availability due to glacier
loss, also other hazards linked to ENSO, circulation changes.
Caribbean: High exposure to a suite of hazards associated with sea-level rise,
possible changes in tropical storms, ecosystem loss, desiccation & water loss.
Pacific Islands: Similar to Caribbean region, with additional problems of isolation &
fact that many islands are low-lying atolls.
+ North Africa/Magreb, Southern Africa & Sahel (previous slide) = 9 regions
Based on projections from IPCC AR4 (2007), expert judgment & review of other, post-AR4 literature.
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Countries & regional groups selected
Country or group
Alternate
Possible regional group
1
Caribbean region (Dominica, Guyana,
Haiti)
-
2
Pacific region (countries TBC)
-
-
3
Bolivia (Andean region)
Peru
+ Colombia, Ecuador
4
Bangladesh (South Asia)
India
+ Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives
5
Nepal (South Asia)
Bhutan
Combine Nepal & Bhutan
6
Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines (Southeast
Asia)
-
7
Tajikistan (Central Asia)
Uzbekistan
+ Turkmenistan, Kyrghyz
Rep., Kazakhstan
8
Mauritania (N. Africa)
Morocco
9
Zambia (southern Africa)
Angola
10
Niger (Sahel)
Chad
+ Mali &/or Sudan
11
Mozambique (African LDCs)
Ethiopia, Sierra Leone
None proposed
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Climate
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Country distribution
Least Deve loped Countries (LDCs)
Bolivia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Cambodia
Zamb ia
Mauritania
Mozamb ique
Small Island D eveloping States (SIDS)
Caribbean Selection
Pacific Selection
Coastal zone and sea-level rise
Bangladesh
Caribbean region
Pacific region
Southeast Asia group
Niger
Haiti
Mountain Region (snow and ice melt, with wa ter
supply, ecological zone and o ther consequ ences)
Drought risk and w ater availabi lity.
Zamb ia
Bolivia
Nepal
Floods
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Vietnam
Guyana
Mauritania
Niger
Philippines
Nepal
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Comments on countries selected
• Global distribution - regional balance
• Diverse environments & development contexts
• A range of key long-term hazards also linked with extreme events
• Identification of additional high-risk African LDCs
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Strengths of the EG’s approach
• Coherent methodology & conceptual framework
• Transparent process
• Combines expert judgment with indicator-based data
• Not reductionist - not based on single-number index
• Addresses contextual nature of risk (to an extent)
• Is climate change specific (except for preparedness indicator & HDI)
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Caveats
• Top-down approach
• Characterisation of hazard & vulnerability necessarily crude
• Based on projections that may be conservative - may miss certain
hazards and/or underestimate their severity
• Focuses on large-scale, long-term, systemic hazards & risks - countries
may experience high risks due to other combinations of hazard &
vulnerability, e.g. combinations of extremes etc.
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Alternatives & improvements
• More participatory selection process might be desirable
 has its own risks - easy to lose climate change focus
• Method could be refined by developing better indicators
 Hazard index addressing different national context
 Vulnerability indicators targeting national hazard & development contexts
 Risk indices combining hazard & vulnerability
 Time & resource intensive undertaking, but might start with one region
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End of presentation
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