Transcript Utility of Coastal Sciences

Utility of Coastal Sciences
- cases from practice
Hans von Storch and colleagues
Institute of Coastal Research
Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht
Gemany
Based upon:
von Storch, H., K. Emeis, I. Meinke, A. Kannen, V. Matthias, B. W. Ratter, E. Stanev, R: Weisse
and K. Wirtz: Making coastal research useful - - cases from practice. Oceanologica, in press
29. September - 2 October 2014 - 11th International Conference on Hydroscience & Engineering, Hamburg
Hans von Storch
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Climate researcher (in the field
since 1971)
Coastal climate (storms, storm surges,
waves; North and Baltic Sea, North
Atlantic); statistical analysis
Cooperation with social and cultural
scientists since 1992
Director of the Institute of Coastal
Research of the Helmholtz Zentrum
Geesthacht, Germany
Professor at Universität Hamburg
Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the
land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in
most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing
the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal
land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political
preferences change and compete, also the human impact on the coast changes, is
contested and subject to societal decision making processes.
While some coastal research can help informing and constraining such decisions, many
legitimate scientific efforts have little bearing on society.
All decision making processes are political, so that scientific knowledge is not the
dominant driver in such processes. Using cases from the Institute of Coastal Research
of Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, we describe some of these potentially useful parts
of science, and discuss under which circumstances the potential usefulness transform
into real utility. These cases do not span the full range of coastal science.
Important issues are the recognition of alternative knowledge claims, the
inevitableness of uncertainties and incompleteness of scientific analysis, the
acceptance of the political nature of decisions and the ubiquitous presence of social
values. Modesty, self-reflexivity and skepticism are needed on the side of science and
an organized exchange with stakeholders and public through designated “border”
services.
Issues in Coastal Research with the
potential of societal utility:
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Making Sense
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
Monitoring
Hazards, Risks and Opportunities
Scenarios
More …
Making sense refers to the scientific understanding of
complex phenomena, and its use for supporting societal framing
and decision making.
Examples are consequences of eutrophication or the manifestation
of natural system variations vis-a-vis anthropogenic climate
change.
Novel or recurrent but threatening events in complex coastal
environments can attract considerable attention in stakeholder
groups and the public. Meaning-providing frames, which allow for
causal interpretation and understanding, satisfy not only curiosity,
but allow for engineering preparedness and options for specific
stakeholders. A significant constraint is that science is not the sole
supplier of such understanding, but other knowledge brokers are
active as well.
Making sense
What is the process behind the marked increase of storm surge heights in Hamburg
since the 1970s?
Storm surges as recorded at the tide gauge St Pauli in Hamburg. The green horizontal bars indicate
stipulated dike heights. Dike failures are marked by red stars. The color codes mark surge heights. Data
provided by Gabriele Gönnert.
Consistency of recent local change:
Storm surges in Hamburg
Difference betwenn peak heights of storm
surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg
Main cause for recently elevated
storm surges in Hamburg is the
modification of the river Elbe –
(coastal defense and shipping
channel deepening) and less so
because of changing storms or sea
level.
von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and
options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) describes the
“public process of analyzing and allocating the spatial and
temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas to
achieve ecological, economic and social objectives that have been
specified through a political process”.
MSP is an approach for deciding about competitive concepts of
usage of coastal space. This process needs mostly quantitative
information from natural sciences for project-specific technical
planning exercises, but in addition social science needs to provide
mainly qualitative information concerning societal and political
context and structures to inform decision makers in strategic
planning.
Coastal science is not doing MSP as such, but in research in
conditions of how to implement MSP.
Enabling Marine Spatial Planning
What springs to your mind when you hear ‘West coast of Schleswig-Holstein’?
A landscape of values at the West coast of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany (Gee, 2013)
Monitoring aims at the assessment of the current status of
the coastal environment and short term trends, and their
(deterministic) short-term forecasts.
Such assessments are based on observations and related (modelguided) data analysis. The process of making data, assessments
and forecasts available for users is also a challenge.
Coastal science is not doing the routine of monitoring as such, but
in research on how to implement the process of monitoring.
Enabling Monitoring
How can we mix dynamical and empirical knowledge about surface currents in the
German Bight?
Comparison of HF radar determined surface currents with an analysis using STOI, and a simulation with the same
dynamical model, which is used in STOI, but without constraint with HF data.
A snapshot in time of the 2-current field.
A time series of radial velocities at a grid-point. (Stanev et al., 2014)
hazards, risks and
opportunities are needed for almost any kind of onshore
Assessments of
and offshore operation.
An important component of this activity is the determination of
ongoing long-term changes. For the assessment of negative
outlooks and positive perspectives comprehensive and
homogeneous data are needed.
The situation is particularly challenging, when too short, too
fragmented or only inhomogeneous observed data are available.
Then, sometimes, model-derived estimates can be used.
Hazards, risks and opportunities
How much of the lead, which was added to gasoline has ended up in the Baltic Sea?
Estimated annual depositions of lead into the Baltic Sea (black curve) plus estimated depositions derived from a
number of limited observations. (von Storch et al., 2003)
Tools for regional climate servicing
homogeneous data sets of past and future change
The CoastDat data set:
GKSS in Geesthacht
• Model generated data sets
• Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and
coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents
and other variables in N Europe
• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore
conditions.
• extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev
Sea
Clients:
• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and
coastal traffic
• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations)
and opportunities (wind energy)
• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and
options of change
Some applications of
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Interpretation of measurements
- Oils spill risk and chronic oil
pollution
- Ocean energy
- Scenarios of storm surge conditions
- Scenarios of future wave conditions
Currents Power [W/m2]
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
Scenarios, differently to forecasts, address questions of the
type “What may happen, if … and nothing else”.
Such projections provide a useful outlook for assessing
consequences of possible future developments and uncertainties.
Therefore scenarios have become increasingly popular in various
scientific and decision making contexts.
Scenarios
How may ocean wave statistics change at the end of the century (2071-2100),
compared to “today” (1961-2990)?
climate change signals (CCS) of significant
wave height (m, long-term 99 percentiles)
isolines: long-term 99
percentiles of reference period
A2_E
A2_H
A1B_1C
A1B_2C
B2_E
B2_H
B1_1C
B1_2C
- general pattern: increase of HS from W / NW to E / SE; often decrease of HS in the N and W parts
- differences in both magnitude and details of spatial patterns
Grabemann, pers. Comm.
Scenarios
Is a scenario a prediction ?
A prediction is the
most probable result
of a development.
A scenario is a
possible (plausible,
consistent, not
necessarily probable)
outcome of a
development, usually
conditioned by just
one factor.
X2!
As part of the German Adaptation Strategy (DAS) from 2008
the Northern German Climate Atlas was designed.
 This interactive internet tool provides users with
understandable maps and short explanations on ranges of
expected future climate change in Northern Germany.
 Additional to the usual parameters such as air temperature
and precipitation the Northern German Climate Atlas
also provides information on parameters like wind, humidity,
cloudiness and sunshine duration.
www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de
in english: www.coastalatlas.org
 Users can select different regions, seasons and time periods.
Product on possible regional future
climate change:
Northern German Climate Atlas
How may temperature change in
Northern Germany in future?
Is winter rain fall increasing in my
region?
Do we have to expect more storms in
winter?
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Northern German Climate Atlas
Future climate change in Northern Germany
Annual mean temperature
Possible mean change of the annual mean temperature until the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) compared
to today (1961-1990): Increase
In Northern Germany all implemented (12) regional climate scenarios agree in 100 % of the area (orange).
They show a higher mean temperature. This increase may lie between +2.0 and +4.7°C.
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Northern German Climate Atlas
Future climate change in Northern Germany
Precipitation: Summer
Possible change of precipitation in summer until the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) compared to today
(1961-1990): Decrease
In Northern Germany all implemented (12) regional climate scenarios agree in 86 % of the region (orange).
They show less precipitation in summer. This decrease may lie between -8 and -40%.
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Northern German Climate Atlas
Future climate change in Northern Germany
Precipitation: Winter
Possible change of precipitation in winter until the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) compared to today (19611990): Increase
In Northern Germany all available regional climate scenarios agree in 100 % of the region (blue).
They show more precipitation in winter. This increase may lie between +11 and +41%.
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Nordsee
Insel
Watt
Marsch
Marsch
1 km
Hauptdeich
Überflutbarer Deich
Eingedeichte Marsch
Überflutbare Marsch
Brack- und Süßwasser
Kompaktsiedlung
Wohnhügel (Warft/Wurt)
Hausboot
Karsten Reise, pers. comm.
Science-Stakeholder exchange
Role of knowledge
knowledge, scientia est potentia = capacity to set something in motion , needs more
than just “good science”.
When it comes to decisions, the role of science diminishes, and the responsibility is
with stakeholders representing political, economic or social interests. Decisions are
not scientific, but follow power structures, political and economic priorities and
societal developments. Scientifically produced decision support systems can support
decisions by providing specific sets of information and supply evidence-based
decision support. Decisions themselves are in most cases normative and interest
driven.
Two different construction of „climate change“
– scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Temperature
Scientific: man-made change is real, can be
mitigated to some extent but not completely
avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
Tools for regional climate servicing
climate con/dis-sensus reports
Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change
- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and
possible future change
- consensus of what is scientifically documented
- documentation of contested issues.
for
+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008,
BACC 2 in final editing phase
+ Hamburg region (published November 2010)
+ North Sea (in final phase)
Full reports and condensed reports for general public.
Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch,
2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic
Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 161-162
Science-Stakeholder exchange
Science-stakeholder interaction …
… entails not only information provision and contextualization of research findings,
but also a self-reflection of the scientific actors. Science-stakeholder interaction
becomes multifaceted and complicated.
Social and cultural science knowledge is urgently needed for a successful
participation of science in the process of advising decision making.
How strongly do you employ the
following sources of information,
for deciding about issues related to
climate adaptation?
Regional administrators in German
Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.
Norddeutsches Klimabüro:
activities and main clients
Product on the need for coastal protection:
www.kuestenschutzbedarf.de
Protected area today – at normal flood (yellow) and at storm surge (light green)  ~ 11.000 km
Gelb: normales Tidenhochwasser,
Hellgrün: 16. Feb. 1962
Dunkelgrün: 16. Feb 1962 + 1,10 m
On the occasion of a hearing in the parliament of SchleswigHolstein in 2009, the North German Climate Office summarized the
results on the impact of climate change on storm surges in the
North Sea and placed the findings into the regional context.
 Until now anthropogenic climate change has only little effect on North
Sea storm surges. Until 2030 the current coastal protection is
considered to be almost as effective as today.
 However, until 2100 there might be a need for additional coastal
protection strategies since storm surge heights may increase by
about 30 to 110 centimetres compared to today (1961-1990).
 The impact of coastal climate change on tides, sedimentation and the
interaction of coastal engineering measures with water levels in the
German Bight is currently subject of research.
The brochure can be ordered at the
North German Climate Office:
www.norddeutsches-klimabüro.de
Products of the North German Climate Office:
Brochure „North Sea Storm Surges and Climate Change“
Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the
land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in
most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing
the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal
land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political
preferences change and compete, also the human impact on the coast changes, is
contested and subject to societal decision making processes.
While some coastal research can help informing and constraining such decisions, many
legitimate scientific efforts have little bearing on society.
All decision making processes are political, so that scientific knowledge is not the
dominant driver in such processes. Using cases from the Institute of Coastal Research
of Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, we describe some of these potentially useful parts
of science, and discuss under which circumstances the potential usefulness transform
into real utility. These cases do not span the full range of coastal science.
Important issues are the recognition of alternative knowledge claims, the
inevitableness of uncertainties and incompleteness of scientific analysis, the
acceptance of the political nature of decisions and the ubiquitous presence of social
values. Modesty, self-reflexivity and skepticism are needed on the side of science and
an organized exchange with stakeholders and public through designated “border”
services.