Transcript Climate Change presentation by Trevor Murdock

Climate information for
community decision making
11 May 2016
North Saanich Residents Association
North Saanich, BC
Photo: F. Zwiers
Trevor Murdock
Climate Scientist
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
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Nutrition Facts
Serving Size 1 presentation
Amount Per Serving
Slides 30
Minutes 45
% Daily Value*
Maps 25
90%
Diagrams 3
50%
Plots 3
50%
Photos 2
5%
Cartoons 0
0%
Humour
5%
* Percent Daily Values are based on a diet of
one annual meeting.
Refresher
• Weather is at a given location on a given day
– 02 Dec 2005
• 19oC sunny in Montreal
_____
• -5oC snowing in Victoria
______
• Climate is the long term statistics of weather
– 1971-2000 average December
• 4°C, 14 cm snow Victoria
________
• -6°C, 48 cm snow Montreal
________
Climate variability with location
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Climate variability with location
750,000 hectares
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Climate variability with location
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
http://pics.uvic.ca/events/ideafest-hotter-drier-summersimplications-and-adaptations-bc
Climate varies in space
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Outline
1. Historical climate & variability
– long term statistics of weather
– varies with location
2. Planning for future climate
3. Projected climate change
Climate Normals
Climate Variability
Climate Oscillations
Climate Change
Long term
averages (e.g.,
1961-1990)
Short term : (years
to decadal) rises
and falls about the
trend line (ENSO)
Multi-decadal
oscillations in
regional climate: (e.g.
PDO)
Long Term Trends or
major shifts in
climate: (centuries)
• “Normals” change
• Climate variability is ongoing - need to plan for variability
• Note that short-term negative trends in climate warming will occur
Trends
Can historical trends be extended to predict the
future?
a) Yes
b) No
Trends
Can historical trends inform future projections?
a) Yes – they give context
b) Yes – they reflect what actually happened
c) Yes – more certain than climate models (maybe)
Can historical trends alone predict the future?
a) No – the climate system is not linear
b) No – trends change through time
c) No – even the direction of change can depend on
the historical period considered
Outline
1. Historical climate & variability
– long term statistics of weather
– varies with location & time
– historical trends insufficient to plan for future
2. Planning for future climate
3. Projected climate change
Regional temperature / precipitation differences
 different water supply vulnerabilities
The future
A) Estimated future conditions are needed for
planning
OR
B) We can we become more resilient to change
instead
The future
Estimated future conditions are needed for
planning
AND
We can we become more resilient to change
instead
Estimated future conditions
 prioritize how to become resilient to change
Assess vulnerability & increase
resilience: iterative process
Brainstorming:
Climate change
impacts in
North Saanich
Outline
1. Historical climate & variability
– long term statistics of weather
– varies with location & time
– historical trends insufficient to plan for future
2. Planning for future climate
– detailed estimates of future conditions are useful but
planning can begin without them
3. Projected climate change
Global Climate Model temperature
Courtesy CCCma
CGCM3
Projected BC warming
Outline
1. Historical climate & variability
– long term statistics of weather
– varies with location & time
– historical trends insufficient to plan for future
2. Planning for future climate
– detailed estimates of future conditions are useful but
planning can begin without them
3. Projected climate change
– Projected warming is considerable compared with
historical variability
– Amount of warming depends on emissions/policy
Warming
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Shorter frost free period
Double the pineapples by 2050s
Precipitation: Wetter extremes
Precipitation 1-in-20 wet day event
1971-2000 baseline: 100 mm
2050s projected change: 45% increase
Precipitation: Drier Summers
Summer Precipitation
1971-2000 baseline: 90 mm
2050s projected change: 20% decrease
Ecosystem Impacts: Species Changes
Growing Degree Days (GDD)
1971-2000 baseline: 1500 degree-days
2050s projected change: 45%
Sea Level Rise
• http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/adaptation/sea_level.html
• Guidelines based on
1 m / century @ 2100
Brainstorming:
North Saanich Impacts
– warm & hot days in summer
– growing, cooling & frost-free days
precipitation in winter
– wet days winter, spring, and esp. autumn
– sea level rise
summer precipitation/wet days
– snowpack
www.Plan2Adapt.ca
Take away messages
• Climate varies in space and on multiple time scales
• Climate models: tools for projecting future climate
• Projected impacts include
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
warming
reduced snowpack
changes to species suitability
changes to precipitation (wet wetter and dry drier)
extremes
storminess
sea level rise
hydrological impacts
ocean acidification
• Climate information can help plan for increased resilience
Thank you
Questions?
For more information
www.PacificClimate.org
and
http://pics.uvic.ca/education/
climate-insights101#quicktabsclimate_insights_101=1
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