Transcript Long-term climate change

What Climate Change Means for
Sustainable Development
WINSTON H YU, World Bank
February 2009
Have you watched Al Gore’s
An Inconvenient Truth?
1.
2.
Yes
No
What is the largest source of
global greenhouse gas emissions?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Industry
Agriculture
Waste
Energy Supply
Transport
Residential
Land Use
Change
Global Annual GHG Emissions (1970 – 2004)
Sources of GHG Emissions (2004)
What % of total CO2 emissions
(from fossil fuel combustion) was emitted by
industrialized countries in 1900 – 1999?
1.
2.
3.
4.
87%
79%
68%
54%
Including land-use change, which country
emitted the most per capita in 2000?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Australia
Belize
Canada
Malaysia
United States
Top 10 country GHG emissions per capita in 2000
100
90
tons CO2e per person
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Belize
Qatar
Guyana
Malaysia
UAE
Kuwait
PN
Guinea
Brunei
Australia Antigua &
Bar
What observed changes over the past decades
can be attributed to human factors?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Temperature rise
Increased
precipitation
Decreased
precipitation
Sea-level rise
All of the above
Changes in Precipitation (1900 – 2000)
Climate Variability v Climate Change
Two key components:
•Long-term climate change (50
+ years)
•Variability (intra-annual and
inter-annual variations)
Don’t worry, the climate
is not really changing
that fast!
Challenges with Predicting the Future
Global emissions future
?
Climate variables
?
Sectoral response
?
Development and poverty
The key is decision-making under uncertainty
Hydrologic variability presents a key
challenge to growth

Example:
Distribution of
river flow
Long-term mean
and variances may
change, but shortterm variability
remains
What is the Climate in Climate Resilience?
Feb 2009
10,000 BC
1850
paleoclimate
1955 1990
-
trends
climate variability
2009
2040
2100
forecast - projections
------- climate change
By how many degrees Celsius is the average
global temperature projected to rise by the
end of this century?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
Depends
Projected Changes in Surface Temperature
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
Climate change may help increase agricultural
productivity in some countries.
1.
2.
True
False
Projected Impacts on Crops (wheat, maize, rice)
2020s
2050s
2080s
Which regions will most likely be negatively
impacted by climate change?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Agriculture-dependant
regions near the equator
Poorest regions
Coastal regions
Low-lying islands
All of the above
Six Climate Threats: Countries Most at Risk
Low Income
High Income
Middle Income
Drought
Flood
Storm
Coastal 1m
Coastal 5m
Agriculture
Malawi
Bangladesh
Philippines
All low-lying
Island States
All low-lying
Island States
Sudan
Ethiopia
China
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Netherlands
Senegal
Zimbabwe
India
Madagascar
Egypt
Japan
Zimbabwe
India
Cambodia
Vietnam
Tunisia
Bangladesh
Mali
Mozambique
Mozambique
Moldova
Indonesia
Philippines
Zambia
Niger
Laos
Mongolia
Mauritania
Egypt
Morocco
Mauritania
Pakistan
Haiti
China
Brazil
Niger
Eritrea
Sri Lanka
Samoa
Mexico
Venezuela
India
Sudan
Thailand
Tonga
Myanmar
Senegal
Malawi
Chad
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
Fiji
Algeria
Kenya
Benin
Honduras
Senegal
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Iran
Rwanda
Fiji
Libya
Denmark
Pakistan
Africa
Africa mean temperatures and annual precipitation have
changed over last 100 years
Less rainfall in the Sahel
Africa has warmed on average
0.5 degree C over last century
Six warmest years on record
have all occurred since 1987
More rainfall in East Africa
Frequency of Extreme Events
- One third of African people live in drought prone areas
- 220 million are annually exposed to drought
- Mozambique 2000 floods - US$ 550 million (1.5% reduction GDP growth)
- Kenya 1997/98 floods - $1.8 billion Infrastructure and property damage
Climate Change Projections

Temperature:
• Expected to increase 2°- 6°C (by the end of this
century) with greatest impact over the semi-arid
margins of the Sahara and central southern
Africa and least in equatorial latitudes and
coastal environments.

Precipitation:
• Projected future changes in mean seasonal
rainfall in Africa are less well defined.
Historical Rainfall record
?
The Sahel
?
More Rain
East Africa
?
Southeast Africa
Hulme et al. (2001)
?
Less Rain
Future is more uncertain about precipitation than
temperature
Natural 30-year Variability
Each point represents global future scenario A1, A2, B1, B2
Hulme et al. (2001)
Changes in Agriculture
Reduction in soil fertility
Decreased livestock productivity
Increased incidence of pest attacks
Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons
Increasing Desertification
Two thirds of continent is desert or dry-lands
Public Health Impacts
Vector-borne diseases that are
considered to be sensitive to climate
change
Diseases
Malaria, filariasis, dengue
fever, West Nile fever
Leishmaniasis
Chagas disease
Lyme disease, tick-borne
encephalitis
African trypanosomiasis
Onchocerciasis

Vector
Mosquitoes

Sandflies
Triatomines
Ixodes Ticks

Tsetse flies
Black flies

Pressures on Biodiversity
Possible species migration
Reduction in plant species habitats
Impacts on wetland ecosystems
Sea Level Rise
Sea levels around Africa expected to
rise by 15 – 95 cm by the year 2100
Implications for coastal fisheries,
saltwater intrusion, migration,
coastal flooding
Adaptation to Climate Risks

First step: reduce vulnerability by focusing on
improved adaptation to existing variability (and
extremes)
• Crop diversification (e.g. livestock, forestry products)
• Modern cultivation methods (e.g. fertilizer techniques, improved
seeds, drought resistant crops)
• Improved water resources management (national and international)
• Improved forecasting and preparedness
• Community-based natural resource management
• Water harvesting and storage infrastructure
• Integrated coastal zone management
Adaptation to Climate Risks

Climate vulnerability is exacerbated by (and results
in?):
•
•
•
•
•
•

Low per capita GDP
Low life expectancy and high infant mortality rates
Low adaptive capacity
Low literacy
High dependence on natural resource base
Weak governance
Successful economic development and poverty
alleviation are important means to reducing
vulnerability to climate risks
What more can the Bank do?

Support
• Build knowledge base: Current poor state of reliable data (spatial and
temporal) for climate monitoring
• Stronger institutions and management: Current low level of climate
expertise in region; build links between research and policy; stronger
national and regional institutions for water management and
managing risks
• Better analysis of regional impacts: Regional climate models for Africa
still in development;



With macroeconomic importance of agriculture in Africa, adaptation to climate
risks will be critical.
Given growing energy demands, evaluating impacts of long-term change on
infrastructure investments
Resilience to changing dynamics with floods and droughts - One response to longterm climate change is to strengthen seasonal rainfall forecasts
Most client countries perceive climate
change as a(n):
_____________ issue.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Environmental
Economic
Political
Social
All of the above
The Client’s Perspective on Climate Change






Trade offs with other development needs
Equity if not major GHG emitter
Developing vis-à-vis developed perspective
Technology access and adoption
Capacity and knowledge
Grants versus loans
What is the Bank’s role in the climate
change issue?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Advocate
Neutral Partner
Bystander
Financing and
Knowledge
None of the above
All of the above
THANK YOU
Winston H Yu
([email protected])