Transcript mmelsner_poster_hb1303_cpasw_2008

Impacts of Climate Change on Washington State Natural and Human
Resources
Marketa McGuire
1
Elsner ,
Jeremy S.
1
Littell ,
Dennis P.
2
Lettenmaier ,
Edward L.
1
Miles
1. JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group, Box 354235, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
The Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW), Chapel Hill, N.C., March 4-7, 2008
1. Abstract
3. Impacts on Washington Climate and Natural and Human Resources
Changes in Pacific Northwest climate have already occurred but future changes in
temperature are likely to exceed past changes, posing challenges to natural
resource management across the region. Based on results from simulations
performed for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), we present projections of future climate for the 21st
Century over the Pacific Northwest, as well as our best estimate of sea level rise
for coastal waters of Washington. The Climate Impacts Group at the University of
Washington, in cooperation with Washington State University and Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory, is performing a comprehensive assessment of the
impacts of climate change on Washington State, which was mandated through
State House Bill 1303. The assessment uses an integrated approach and focuses
on the impacts of global warming on eight sectors: public health, agriculture, the
coastal zone, forest ecosystems, salmon, infrastructure, energy, and water supply
and management. We present the most recent findings for each sector and
identify data gaps and needs for future research. The full assessment will be
complete in December 2008.
21st Century Climate Projections
Climate change will continue to cause significant changes in temperature &
precipitation across Washington State. Based on simulations from 20 Global Climate
Models (GCMs) and 2 emissions scenarios (A1B and B1), we find:
• Annual temperature will
increase approximately
0.3°C, or roughly 0.5°F,
per decade over the next
50 years.
• The greatest warming is
predicted for summer
months.
• The range of
precipitation could
increase or decrease but
the, but the projected
mean change is small.
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Figure 2.1: Map of Pacific Northwest (Columbia River
Basin plus coastal drainages) and Washington State.
In 2007, the State Legislature of
Washington passed HB 1303 which
mandated the preparation of a
comprehensive assessment of the
impacts of climate change on the
State of Washington, with focus on
the next 50 years. The Climate
Impacts Group (CIG) at the University
of Washington, in cooperation with
two state agencies, is conducting an
integrated assessment which focuses
on the impacts of climate change in
relation to:
Figure 3.1: Projected change in seasonal and annual temperature (top) and precipitation
(bottom) in the Pacific Northwest. B1 and A1B emissions scenarios represent the range of
possible Greenhouse Gas projections for the 20 GCM ensembles.
Hydrology / Water Resources
X
20 GCMs
X
IPCC Climate Scenarios
Approach provides
ensemble of variables
that can be used to
evaluate impacts of
climate change
• Air Temperature
• PET
Figure 3.2: Mean 1970-1999 (left panels), projected 2020s (center) and 2040s (right)
simulated April 1 SWE in centimeters, using two emissions scenarios A1B (top) and B1
(bottom). 2.5cm is approximately equal to one inch.
• VPD
• And more!
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report daily climate projections out to 2100 (at 1-3
degrees or roughly 100-300 km spatial resolution, depending on the specific
climate model) are downscaled using two different approaches: an empirical
method and a regional climate model. The Pacific Northwest domain, bounded
by latitudes 41.5° and 49.5°N and longitudes 111° and 124°W, is used for
downscaling. Downscaled climate scenarios are input to one of two hydrologic
models which calculate the water balance for the ensemble of projections at a
spatial resolution of 1/16th degree (about 30-35 km2). Streamflow will be
predicted at up to 200 locations. Sector groups utilize climate and hydrologic
predictions to assess statewide impacts. Case studies on the Yakima River basin
and Puget Sound will assess specific impacts to these regions. Here we present
a preliminary analysis, using a delta method approach to assess impacts based
on a composite mean projected climate scenario. Final analyses, based on an
ensemble of 40 climate scenarios will be completed in December 2008.
13”
6”
3”
• Productivity of Douglas-fir forests is likely to
decrease statewide.
6”
2050
2100
Figure 3.4a: Projected sea level rise in Washington’s
waters relative to 1980-99, in inches. Shading
roughly indicates likelihood.
Rising sea levels will increase
the risk of flooding, erosion, and
habitat loss along much of
Washington’s 2,500 miles of
coastline.
Infrastructure
Figure 3.4b: Olympia predicted flood zones for “medium” (2-feet, or
0.6m, of rise by 2100, yellow) and “very high” (4-feet, or 1.2m, of
rise by 2100, orange) sea level rise estimates. Maps are based on
current coastal zone elevations and do not include potential human
adaptation responses such as protection of coastal property.
• Stormwater impacts and management
already carry significant economic costs
for municipalities throughout western
WA, as well as the rest of the state.
• The potential for changes in precipitation
intensity would increase these costs.
Historic
A1B 2020
Human Health
• Summer heat waves are expected to
increase.
• Warmer summer air temperatures are
likely impact air quality, increasing ozone
concentrations and fine particulates
Figure 3.5: The cumulative distribution of the value of irrigated crops produced in the Yakima Basin:
base climate and 2ºC (3.6°F) climate warming.
Salmon
Energy
• Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model used for
State domain and Yakima River Basin case study.
• Distributed Hydrology Soil & Vegetation Model
(DHSVM) is used for Puget Sound case study.
20”
• Tree species composition will change as species
respond uniquely to a changing climate.
• Irrigation supplies are likely to decline
• Diseases will generally become
significantly.
more problematic over the next
century, especially as a result of
• Longer growing seasons, reduced summer
warmer temperatures.
precipitation, and increasing competition
with weeds for non-irrigated crops.
• Streamflow
• Soil Moisture
30”
• Mountain pine beetle poses a significant threat
to Washington’s pine forests.
Agriculture
• Impacts to streamflow
depend on elevation
and proximity to the
coast that determine
mid-winter
temperatures.
• Precipitation
Hydrology Modeling
40”
• Declines in April 1 SWE
vary between 35%-41%
for the 2040s,
depending on the
emissions scenario.
Study Approach
2
Downscaling
Approaches
• Wildfires are strongly associated with climate,
especially in eastside forests.
• Reduced snowpack and
changes in soil moisture
will occur.
public health, agriculture, the coastal zone, forest ecosystems,
infrastructure, and water supply and management.
2 Emissions
Scenarios
• There is considerable
spread among models,
but there is slightly
greater likelihood of
modest increases in
winter and modest
decreases in summer.
Forests
50”
10”
2. Background and Study Approach
Pacific Northwest
Coasts
• In the 2001-2006
period, 15% of
stations exceed
the 21ºC (70°F)
water quality
criteria, and all
are located in the
interior Columbia
Basin.
Figure 3.3: Estimated cooling degree days (Fahrenheit) based on the period 1970-1999 and using the A1B emissions scenario.
(Cooling degree days are calculated based on a threshold of 75°F, or 24°C).
• Heating degree days will continue to dominate in the 2020s and 2040s, but
cooling degree days become a much more important factor in eastern WA as the
region warms.
Figure 3.6: Projected Maximum Weekly Average Water Temperatures –
2040s
• The most vulnerable populations include
infants, children, the elderly, the mentally
ill, and the poor.
Additional Information
A1B 2040
Cooling Degree Days (F)
• Increased temperatures and flooding may
alter the habitat and range of disease
reservoirs and vectors (e.g., mosquitoes)
• 49% of stations
exceed the 21ºC
(70°F) water
quality criteria by
the 2040s
(changes relative
to 2001-2007, for
the A1B emissions
scenario).
More information on the Climate Impacts Group or
WA State Climate Impacts Assessment:
The Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.ed/cig
Marketa McGuire Elsner
[email protected]
These results are summarized in the HB1303 Interim Report (Dec 2007):
HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of
Washington
Climate Impacts Group 2007. HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate
Change on the State of Washington. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the
Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle,
Washington.