Transcript Earth`s Climate System

Earth’s Climate System
Figure 10.1
Worldwide Average Preciptiation
Figure 10.2
Generalized Climate Regions
Figure 10.4
Tropical Climates (A)
average T each month > 64 F (18 C)
Mesothermal Climates (C)
Average T of coldest month - 64-27F (18 - -3C)
Microthermal Climates (D)
Warmest month > 50F (10C)
Coldest month < 27F (-3C)
Polar Climates (E)
No month > 50F (10C)
Dry, Arid, and Semiarid Climates
(B) (Evaporation > Precipitation)
Global Temperatures
Figure 10.28
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
The Land and Oceans have warmed
Carbon Dioxide Sources
Figure 10.29
Precipitation patterns have changed
The following
slides with this
background are
taken from the
“Briefing on the
IPCC Synthesis
Report at COP7”.
Mother Earth -- Our Home
It is has water, oxygen and a hospitable climate
The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino
events have increased in the last 20 years
El Niño years
La Niña years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the
tropics and subtropics
Sea Levels have risen
Weather-related economic damages have increased
Human activities have changed the composition of the
atmosphere since the pre- industrial era
Observed regional changes in temperature have been
associated with observed changes in physical and
biological systems
Examples include:
• non-polar glacier retreat
• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in
summer
• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding
season for plants and animals in the N.H.
• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of plants,
birds, fish and insects; earlier spring migration and later
departure of birds in the N.H.
• increased incidence of coral bleaching
Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is
attributable to human activities
Global mean surface temperature is projected to
increase during the 21st century
Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans
with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier
with an overall increase projected
Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990
Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st
century
Examples of impacts
• Higher maximum temperatures; • Increased mortality in old people
more hot days and heatwaves
in urban areas
over nearly all land areas (very • Damage to crops
likely)
• Heat stress on livestock
• Higher minimum temperatures; • Extended range of pests and
fewer cold days frost days and
diseases
cold spells over nearly all land • Loss of some crop/fruit
areas (very likely)
slides, mudslides, damage to
• more intense precipitation events • Land
property and increased insurance
over many areas (very likely)
costs
• increased summer drying over • Reduced rangeland productivity,
most mid-latitude continental
increased wildfires, decreased
interiors and associated risk of
hydropower
drought (likely)
• increase in tropical cyclone peak • Damage to various ecological and
socioeconomic systems
wind intensity, mean and peak
precipitation intensities (likely)
Initially increased agricultural productivity in some midlatitude regions & reduction in the tropics and subtropics even with warming of a few degrees
2020s
2050s
2080s
Branching coral
Brain coral
coral bleaching events are expected to increase
Ecological systems have many interacting nonlinear processes and are thus subject to abrupt
changes and threshold effects arising from
relatively small changes in driving variables,
such as climate.
For example:
Temperature increase beyond a threshold,
which varies by crop and variety, can affect key
development stages of some crops and result in
severe losses in crop yields.
Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88m by
2100, but with significant regional variations
Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions
of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events,
especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas.
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea
level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive
capacity
projected
present
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate
change
• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone
and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive
sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,
institutional and technological capacity and access to
knowledge
• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately
upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons
within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status
and access to adequate food, clean water and other
resources.
• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in
most developing countries
Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse effects of
climate change and can often produce immediate ancillary
benefits, but cannot prevent all damages
• Numerous adaptation options have been identified that
can reduce adverse and enhance beneficial impacts of
climate change, but will incur costs
• Greater and more rapid climate change would pose
greater challenges for adaptation
Food
production
needs to
double to meet
the needs of an
additional 3
billion people
in the next 30
years
Climate change is projected to
decrease agricultural
productivity in the tropics and
sub-tropics for almost any
amount of warming
Wood fuel is the only
source of fuel for one
third of the world’s
population
Wood demand will double
in next 50 years
Climate change is
projected to increase
forest productivity, but
forest management will
become more difficult,
due to an increase in
pests and fires
Water Services
One third of the world’s
population is now subject to
water scarcity
Climate
change is
projected to
decrease
water
availability
in many
arid- and
semi-arid
regions
Population facing water
scarcity will more than
double over the next 30
years
Contamination time
• Impact of warming and rising sea level on
small islands
Estimated 10-15% of the
world’s species could
become extinct over the
next 30 years
Biodiversity underlies all
ecological goods and
services
Climate change will
exacerbate the loss of
biodiversity
Agricultural
Lands
Coastal
Zones
Forest
Lands
Freshwater
Systems
Arid Lands &
Grasslands
Food and Fiber Production
Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water
Maintenance of Biodiversity
Maintenance of Human Health
Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to
provide a range of essential ecological goods and services
Production costs (EURO1990/kWh)
Cost of new technologies have declined steeply,
but costs of conventional technologies have also
declined at a slower rate
10
Solar
Wind
1
Biomass
0.1
Natural gas Combined
Cycle
Advanced Coal
0.01
100
10000
1000000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)
Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source: IEA