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ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002 C-CIARN Mission The National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues. C-CIARN Structure Advisory Committee C-CIARN Board National C-CIARN Coordinating Office NGOs Private Federal Sector Depts. Steering Committee Landscape Hazards (Office at Laurentian U, Sudbury) Forest (Office at CFS Edmonton) Quebec (Office at Ouranos, Montreal) Fisheries (Office at DFO Nanaimo) Health (Office at HC Ottawa) Agriculture (Office at U. of Communities Prov/Terr agencies Ontario (Office at GSC Ottawa) • Universities Prairies (Office at Coastal Zone Atlantic (Office at (Office at BIO Dartmouth) Dalhousie U., Halifax) PARC, U. of Regina) North (Office at Water Resources (Office at McGill U., Montreal) British Columbia (Office at UBC, Vancouver) Guelph) Sectors Regions Northern Climate Exchange, Whitehorse) Yukon NWT Nunavut The Ontario Network Non Governmental 4% Other 9% ENGOS 3% Federal 13% Academia 24% Provincial 18% Research Units 7% Industry 10% Munincipal 12% Communities in Ontario 258 communities with population > 1,000 Range in size from 1,005 to 1.56M 13 communities 7 communities >100,000 50,000 – 99,000 37 communities 10,000 – 49,900 201 communities 1,000 – 9,999 Stats Canada, 2001 census Large urban centres, medium-sized cities, towns and rural communities will vary in both the climate change challenges they will face AND their capacity to address those challenges Long Term Temperature Changes Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada) 2010-2030 with respect to 1975-1995 2040-2060 with respect to 1975-1995 500 0 3000 km 2080-2100 with respect to 1975-1995 Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1985 2090 Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 andand 2010-2030 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Some increased winter precipitation over Ontario More rain – less snow Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Changed summer precipitation - droughts - food production Also - changes in extremes Great Lakes Water Levels Current & Projected Ranges 1 metre drop in lake level possible 184 177 175 183.5 X X X 176 174 X 75.5 183 175 X X 173 X 182.5 Lake Superior 74.5 174 Lakes MichiganHuron 172 Lake Erie X Average, 1918-1998 X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996) 73.5 X 72.5 Lake Ontario Droughts and Low Water Levels Cumulative Precipitation Index for Brantford 240 Cumulative Precipitation Index (%) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Hydrological Drought Year • severe drought 1997-99 • low lake levels; beached harbours • groundwater supply concerns • some years comparable to 1930s; worse than 1960s Impacts on Agriculture Positive Increased productivity from warmer temps and enhanced CO2 Longer growing seasons Accelerated maturation rates Possibility of growing new crops Negative Changes • warmer temperatures • drier or wetter • increased frequency of extreme events • enhanced atmospheric CO2 Increased insect infestations Crop damage from extreme heat Increased moisture stress and drought Decreased herbicide and pesticide efficacy Increased soil erosion Adaptation Purpose Crop Development Breed new varieties and hybrids to cop with changes in climate and environment Crop Selection potentially To take advantage of crops that suited to the new conditions such as a longer growing season Farm Production Practices Diversify crop and livestock types and varieties. Land Use Locate crops and livestock in Ontario to suit the environmental variations and economic risks Physiological Elevated CO2 Process Warmer Increased drought Temp./ Longer (severity and frost-free frequency) season Photosynthesis Increased but possible limitations Increased but possible limitations Increased Development Shortened growing season Earlier bud break. Later winter frost hardiness Earlier cessation of bud elongation Susceptibility to stress Increased drought tolerance Potential increase Increased sensitivity in spring and to other stresses winter freezing Adaptation Purpose Shorten rotation lengths where appropriate Harvest chronically stressed stands of low vigour and slower growth rates that are susceptible to insect and disease Plant drought adapted species and genotypes Regenerate drought-prone habitats with deeply-rooted species; select and breed drought-tolerant genotypes Plant climate adapted species Introduce southern species beyond recent northern range limits when temperature averages and extremes have warmed sufficiently Adaptation Process Understanding Vulnerability Engage stakeholders Those affected Key decision makers Assess current vulnerability Use experience to assess impacts and damages Project future conditions Climate / environment Socioeconomic Policy and development Develop / implement appropriate policies / practices Climate Impacts in the Hudson Bay Lowlands 0 5 10 15 Depth (m) Aug. 13, 1986 20 Aug. 10, 1976 25 Aug. 17, 1977 Aug. 7, 2001 30 35 40 45 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Temperature (oC)