Transcript Choosing Environmental Policy Area

Choosing Environmental Policy Area
• Politics-how your environmental piece of
legislation became a law
• Science- how do different advocates use science
to define/frame your environmental policy issue
• Policy- write a position paper advocating for a
particular policy proposal
• http://www.skidmore.edu/~bturner/go231_topic
.htm
Rational Public Policy Model
• identify a problem
• identify the cause of that problem
• identify the magnitude or dimensions of the
problem
• identify alternatives for solving the cause of
that problems
• Choose alternative which will best solve the
underlying cause of the problem
Nut Behind the Wheel
• GM "If the
drivers do
everything they
should, there
wouldn't be
accidents, would
there?"
Unsafe Car
Consequences
Actions
Unguided
Purposeful
Intended
MECHANICAL
CAUSE
Intervening agent
Brainwashed people
Machines which
perform ok, but cause
harm
INTENTIONAL
CAUSE
Oppression
Conspiracies
Programs which work
but cause harm
Unintended
ACCIDENTAL
CAUSE
Nature
Weather, earthquakes
Machines run amok
Act of God
INADVERTENT
CAUSE
Intervening conditions
Unforeseen side
effects
Avoidable ignorance
Carelessness/omission
• Accidents- “events beyond human control”
– Debate ”how human action contributes to
accidents”
NSF Study
• Insufficient planning: New Orleans' levee designs were
based on an outdated 1965 study. Engineers built the
levee system with the goal of creating a system that
could stand up to the worst storm possible in 200
years. Unfortunately, the study greatly miscalculated
how powerful potential storms could be.
• Riskier design: New Orleans' levees were built to
sustain the city's growth, unlike the levees in
neighboring areas, which were built to provide safety.
As a result, New Orleans' levees were shorter and
weaker.
• Safety compromised by bureaucracy: No central agency
was in charge of maintaining the levees. This task instead
fell to several different private firms and government
agencies, leading to communication problems and the
breakdown of various upgrade projects.
• Poor maintenance: Levees require constant upkeep. As the
land in New Orleans sinks, so do the levees. Investigators
also suspect that large trees growing nearby undermined
the levees.
• Insufficient funds: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which
oversees the design and construction of levees, had been
hit by budget cuts. This left the agency with fewer
experienced engineers.
Katrina- Complex Problem
Causal Strategies in Problem
Definition
To Initiate Change
• problem formerly interpreted as accident is result
of human agency (stupidity)
• effects of action were intended secretly by actor
(villian)
• low probability effects of action were accepted as
calculated risk by actor (negligent)
• Sierra Club’s “False Advertising”
Causal Strategies in Problem
Definition
To maintain status quo
• problem is caused by accident of nature
• cause of problem is so complex that only large
scale policy changes can alter cause
• Patrick J. Michaels’ “Losing It”.
• A condition, not a problem
Causal Stories  Ownership
• Causal stories
– Determine if problem
– Assign blame/responsibility
– legitimize certain actors ownership or
disownership of problem
• BP ad- Louisiana Shrimper
http://www.louisianagulfresponse.com/go/do
c/3047/986971/
Who “Owns” the problem?
Who “Owns” the problem?
Who owns the problem according to
Sierra Club’s False Advertising
Coal
• Shift from “condition” to “problem”
– caused by human actions
– amenable to human intervention.
• cognitive dimension- something can be done
• moral dimension- something should be done
• Tell a story/narrative about who is morally responsible for fixing the
problem
• Pre-Existing Cognitive Frames
– Individual responsibility & freedom
– Belief in technology/progress
– Hydrofracking
Pralle- Global Warming
• Political Science for Environmentalists!
• What should the Sierra Club do?
– Problem stream
24 presenters in 24 time zones
Google Top Trends Sep 15
1. michaele salahi
2. americas got talent
winner
3. brian urlacher
4. pat robertson
5.
6. nflx
7. free agents
8. lsu football
9. james carville
10.
11. lingual braces
12. apple juice
13. sarah palin
14. netflix stock
15. listeriosis
Emphasize scientific consensus
• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level”
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
IPCC defines "very likely" as greater than 90% probability of occurrence
• Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC, 2007
• American Meteorological Society: Climate
Change: An Information Statement of the
American Meteorological Society
"Indeed, strong observational evidence and
results from modeling studies indicate that, at
least over the last 50 years, human activities
are a major contributor to climate change."
(February 2007)
• American Physical Society: Statement on Climate
Change
"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is
occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken,
significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and
ecological systems, social systems, security and
human health are likely to occur. We must reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now."
(November 2007)
• American Geophysical Union: Human Impacts on Climate
"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is
warming. Many components of the climate system—including
the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the
extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the
distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are
now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and
are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances
of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human
activity during the 20th century." (Adopted December 2003,
Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007)
• American Association for the Advancement
of Science: AAAS Board Statement on Climate
Change
"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate
change caused by human activities is
occurring now, and it is a growing threat to
society." (December 2006)
• Geological Society of America: Global Climate
Change
"The Geological Society of America (GSA) supports
the scientific conclusions that Earth’s climate is
changing; the climate changes are due in part to
human activities; and the probable consequences of
the climate changes will be significant and blind to
geopolitical boundaries." (October 2006)
• American Chemical Society: Statement on Global
Climate Change
"There is now general agreement among scientific
experts that the recent warming trend is real (and
particularly strong within the past 20 years), that
most of the observed warming is likely due to
increased atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations, and that climate change could have
serious adverse effects by the end of this century."
(July 2004)
• U.S. National Academy of
Sciences: Understanding and Responding to
Climate Change (pdf)
"The scientific understanding of climate change
is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps
to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere." (2005)
Clinton Global Initiative
• “We look like a joke, right? ..If you’re an
American, the best thing you can do is to
make it politically unacceptable for people to
engage in denial ... I mean, it makes us – we
look like a joke, right? You can’t win the
nomination of one of the major parties in the
country if you admit that the scientists are
right?“ 9/20/11
Policy Stream
Political
Stream
• "A substantial number of scientists [have]
manipulated data to keep the money rolling
in," NH campaign Trail
• “"all one contrived phony mess that is falling
apart under its own weight.“ Perry in Fed Up
• Grover Norquist "If Perry was president, one
of the things I'd not worry about is a carbon
tax. I'd worry about big spiders eating New
Jersey first."
• "I do believe that the issue of global warming has
been politicized. I think there are a substantial
number of scientists who have manipulated data
so that they will have dollars rolling into their
projects. I think we're seeing it almost weekly or
even daily, scientists who are coming forward and
questioning the original idea that man-made
global warming is what is causing the climate to
change. Yes, our climates change. They've been
changing ever since the earth was formed.“ Rick
Perry, Aug 16, 2011 NH Campaign Event
• Do you think that global warming is happening
80
70
60
50
2010
40
2008
30
20
10
0
Yes
No
Don't Know
• Which comes closest to your own view?
2010
2008
34
47
5
3
There is a lot of disagreement among scientists
about whether or not global warming is
happening
40
33
Don't know enough to say
22
18
Most scientists think global warming is
happening
Most scientists think global warming is NOT
happening
• How important is the issue of global warming
to you personally?
45
40
35
30
25
20
2010
15
2008
10
5
0
Extremely
important
Very
important
Somewhat
important
Not too
Not all
important important 11
• “IPCC Made Up Amazon Rainforest
Assertions, Relied on WWF”
• Amplification of Global Warming by CarbonCycle Feedback Significantly Less than
Thought, Study Suggests
• one researcher influential in the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) process vows to keep two sets
of results from being included in the group's
widely cited reports "somehow -- even if if we
have to redefine what the peer review
literature is."
Hide The Decline - Climategate
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAlMomLv
u_4
• http://vimeo.com/11124841
Causal Strategies in Problem
Definition
To Initiate Change
• effects of action were intended secretly by
actor (villian)