Transcript NAME - UW Atmospheric Sciences

Variability of the American Monsoon Systems
A WCRP/CLIVAR program focused on the climate of the Americas
Chair’s Report
VPM10
Santiago, Chile
2-5 April 2006
J. Marengo & W. Higgins
Implementation
Science Components
• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
• Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA)
• VAMOS Oceans-Clouds-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS)
Dataset Development
• VAMOS Data Information Server
Project Support
• VAMOS Support Center
VAMOS Program Structure
VAMOS
MODELING
GROUP
VAMOS
PROJECT
OFFICE
VAMOS Support Center
http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vamos/
VAMOS Data Information Server
http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vamos/data/
Implementation Highlights
• NAME
• NAME 2004 data archive completed
• NAME Value Added products completed
• NAME diagnostic and modeling studies in progress
(Special Issue of Journal of Climate)
• MESA
• SALLJEX data analysis in progress and SALLJEX Value Added
Products completed
• MESA SWG organized and Science Plan drafted
• Planning of the Phase B of the GEF Project for the La Plata Basin
completed
•LPB SISG organized and Implementation Plan Drafted
•VOCALS
• Plans for VOCALS-REX in the eastern Pacific underway
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
HYPOTHESIS:
The NAMS provides a physical
basis for determining the degree
of predictability of warm season
precipitation over the region.
OBJECTIVES:
Better understanding and
simulation of:
• warm season convective
processes in complex terrain
(TIER I);
Low-level (925 mb) winds and observed precipitation
YEAR (2000+)
Planning
Preparations
Data Collection
Principal Research
Data Management
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
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- - - - - - --------|
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• intraseasonal variability of
the monsoon (TIER II);
• response to oceanic and
continental boundary
conditions (TIER III);
• monsoon evolution and
variability (TIER I, II, III).
What was the NAME 2004
Field Campaign?
The NAME 2004 Field
Campaign was an
unprecedented opportunity to
gather extensive atmospheric,
oceanic, and land-surface
observations in the core region
of the North American
Monsoon over NW Mexico, SW
United States, and adjacent
oceanic areas.
NAME 2006 Accomplishments
Field Program and Datasets
 NAME 2004 Data Archive (284 datasets; 0.5 TB) & Field Catalog (0.5M files)
completed at NCAR/EOL
Data Access: http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name/
 NAME Value Added Products completed (e.g. precipitation and upper-air composite
datasets; multi-sensor SST analyses and land surface datasets)
Modeling and Applications Studies
 Analysis of NAME 2004 field observations.
 Impact of NAME 2004 data on NCEP operational analyses.
 Assessments of global & regional model simulations of the 2004 monsoon (NAMAP2).
 Relative influence of oceanic & land surface bc’s on seasonal prediction (CPT)
NAME 2006 Accomplishments
Journal Articles
 Gutzler et al, 2005: The North American Monsoon Model Assessment Project
(NAMAP). Bull. Amer. Met. Soc (Oct 05)
 Higgins et al. 2006: The NAME 2004 Field campaign and Modeling Strategy. Bull.
Amer. Met. Soc (Jan 06)
Special Issue of Journal of Climate on NAME
 22 papers on NAME 04 & NAME diagnostic and modeling studies (mid 2007)
Reports
 SWG 7.5 Meeting Report (Dec 2005)
 SWG 8 Meeting Report (Oct 06)
 NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation White Paper - updated
Meetings
 NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 Meeting (Mexico City, MX, Mar 05)
 NAME SWG 7.5 Meeting (State College PA, Oct 05)
 NAME SWG 8 Meeting / CPPA PI Meeting (Tucson, AZ, Aug 06)
 NAME SWG 9 Meeting / AGU/UGM Joint meeting (Acapulco, MX, May 07).
Update on NAME Milestones
FY04 – Implement NAME 2004 Field Experiment.(COMPLETED)
FY05 – Evaluate impact of data from NAME 2004 on operational analyses. (COMPLETED)
FY06 – Assess global and regional model simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon
(NAMAP -II). (IN PROGRESS)
FY07 – Evaluate impact of changes in model parameterization schemes (NAME CPT).
(IN PROGRESS)
FY08 – Quantify the relative influence of oceanic and land surface boundary conditions on
simulations of the NAME 2004 monsoon (NAME Tier 3) (IN PROGRESS)
FY08 – Measure improvements in model simulations of monsoon onset and variability.
FY09 – Implement recommended changes to operational climate prediction systems to improve
the skill of warm season precipitation forecasts.
Unresolved / Emerging Issues
• Improved quantification of the impact of NAME special observations, particularly
precipitation, and their associated uncertainties on monsoon predictions.
• Improved understanding of the multi-scale linkages between local, regional and
large scale forcing mechanisms.
• Better documentation and tracking of operational forecast skill for a range of
models, timescales and spatial scales.
• Accelerated transfer of research into operations while improving the value of
forecasts to regional stakeholders (NOAA Climate Test Bed)
• Continuation of operational soundings in Mexico.
SUMMARY
 NAME 2004 was a major field campaign during JJAS 2004
 NAME 2004 data and field catalog are fully available:
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/catalog/
 NAME diagnostic and modeling studies will continue for the next
several years and will help motivate needs for sustained observations
and additional process studies.
 NAME will deliver:
• Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the North
American monsoon;
• More comprehensive understanding of North American summer
climate variability and predictability;
• Strengthened scientific collaboration across Pan-America;
• Measurably improved climate models that predict
North American summer precipitation months
to seasons in advance.
MONSOON EXPERIMENT SOUTH AMERICA (MESA)
HYPOTHESIS:
The SAMS provides a physical basis for
determining the degree of predictability
on short- and long timescales over
the region.
MESA PRIORITY RESEARCH
AREAS (PRA):
Better understanding and
simulation of:
• diurnal and mesoscale processes
(PRA-I);
YEAR (2001+)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 …
SALLJEX Planning
…-------|
SALLJEX Preparations
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SALLJEX Data Collection
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SALLJEX Post-field activities
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PLATEX Planning
---------------------|
PLATEX Preparation
----------|
PLATEX Data Collection
?--------…
MESA Principal Research … ---------------------------------------------…
MESA Data Management
--------------------------------------…
• intraseasonal variability
(PRA-II)
• interannual and longer time
variability (including ACC)
(PRA-III)
• monsoon evolution and
variability (PRAs-I, II, III).
MESA GOALS
The Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA) an
internationally coordinated joint CLIVAR-GEWEX program
aimed at providing:
-a better understanding of the South American monsoon system
and its variability,
-a better understanding of the role of that system in the global
water cycle
-improved observational data sets, and
-improved simulation and prediction of the monsoon and regional
water resources.
MESA OBJECTIVES
MESA is directed towards a better understanding and improved
simulation of:
-Diurnal cycle and seasonal evolution of the SAMS
-3-dimensional description of the low-circulation east of the Andes.
-Mesoscale convective processes
-Role of aerosols from biomass burning in SAMS
-Dynamics of the SA see-saw pattern
-ITCZ-SACZ interaction
-Influence of MJO on SAMS
-Relative roles of internal vs forced low-frequency variability
-Land surface forcing – Impacts of land use change
-Role of remote and local SST – South Atlantic
-Global response to SAMS forcing
-Sources and limits of predictability on SAMS region
MESA 2005 ACTIVITIES (1)
Field Programs and Datasets

SALLJEX Data Base updated.

SALLJEX Value Added Products (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CPTEC analyses enhanced
with SALLJEX data)

Planning of the Phase B of the GEF Project for the La Plata Basin including:
 Climate monitoring, field experiment PLATEX
 Development of climate change scenarios of regional climate and hydrology
 Diagnosis of impact of the land use change in the Basin
Diagnostic, Modeling and Applications Studies

Synthesis of SALLJEX scientific results

Diurnal cycle of precipitation

Nature and predictability of intraseasonal oscillations in eastern South America.

Improvement in model predictability in SAMS region using simple super-model ensemble

Seasonal prediction model assessment in the SAMS region (joint activity with WGSIP)

Assessment of the expected impact of climate change due to anthropogenic activities on the
functioning of the SAMS (Diagnostic studies using IPCC-AR4 simulations)
MESA 2005 ACTIVITIES (2)
Publications and Reports

Vera, C.; J. Baez; M. Douglas; C. B. Emmanuel; J. Marengo; J. Meitin; M. Nicolini; J.
Nogues-Paegle; J. Paegle; O. Penalba; P. Salio; C. Saulo; M. A. Silva Dias; P. Silva
Dias; and E. Zipser, 2005: The South American Low-Level Jet Experiment
(SALLJEX), (BAMS, Jan 06)

Drafts of MESA Science Plan and La Plata Basin CSE Implementation Plan

MESA SWG-1 Meeting Report

Vera, C., W. Higgins, J. Amador, T. Ambrizzi, R. Garreaud, D. Gochis, D. Gutzler, D.
Lettenmaier, J. Marengo, C. R. Mechoso, J. Nogues-Paegle, P. L. Silva Dias, and C.
Zhang, 2005: A Unified View of the American Monsoon Systems (Joint paper between
NAME & MESA accepted for the special issue of the CLIVAR Conference in J.
Climate).
Meetings

First LPB SISG Meeting (Guaratingueta, Brazil, September 2006)

MESA SWG-1 Meeting (Mexico, DF, March 2005)

SALLJEX special session at the Argentinean Meteorological Congress,
CONGREMET IX (Buenos Aires, October 2005)

LPB GEF Project Preparation Meeting (Buenos Aires, May 2005)
MESA MILESTONES
FY04:
 Quantitative information of the model errors in SALLJEX
 Evaluation of impact of SALLJEX data on analysis and forecasts
 Confirmation about the ability of the models to reproduce some of the
elements of the low-level circulation of the SAMS
 Preparation of GEF-PLATIN survey reports
FY05:




SALLJEX Data Assimilation.
Planning of LPB CSE monitoring activities.
Assessment of the IPCC-AR4 simulations in the SAMS region.
Preparation of the MESA Implementation Plan
MESA MILESTONES
FY06:






Completion of the MESA Implementation Plan
Assessment of Seasonal prediction simulations in the SAMS region.
Development of MESA climate indexes
Seasonal simulation of SALLJEX season.
Predictability of the SAMS associated with Atlantic SST simulations.
Regional downscaling of IPCC-AR4 simulations (inc. climate change
projections)
 CLARIS0LPB
FY07:
 LPB monitoring implementation.
 Assessment of extreme event frequency changes in the regional climate
change scenarios for South America and their impact on agricultural
activities.
FY08:
 Evaluate the impact of soil moisture in simulations and predictions.
 PLATEX implementation
…Ultimate goal: Integrated view of the American Monsoon Systems, related interhemispheric
connection, monsoon predictability and prediction
MESA DELIVERABLES
MESA deliverables include:
-More comprehensive understanding of South American
climate variability and predictability and strengthened
multinational scientific collaboration across South America;
-Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration across
South America;
-Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the
South American monsoon system;
-Measurably improved climate models that predict South
American monsoon variability
MESA SUPPORT
MESA has a strong international participation from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile,
Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and USA (~70 principal scientists)
Funding for MESA activities provided by:

NOAA/CPPA Program

NSF

National Funding Agencies of South America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, ~$500K/y)

European Commission (CLARIS, $200K/y)

IAI (PROSUR, $200K/y)

GEF (La Plata Basin, $3M/y, requested for observing system enhancement )
MONSOON EXPERIMENT IN SOUTH AMERICA
(MESA) SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
Part 1: MESA Scientific Objectives
Part 2: Scientific Rationale
Part 3: The MESA Program
3.1 PRAs Framework
3.1.1 SAMS Life cycle
3.1.2 Diurnal and mesoscale variability
3.1.3 Intraseasonal variability
3.1.4 Interannual and interdecadal variability
3.1.5 Long-term climate variability and Climate Change
3.2 MESA Modeling and Data Assimilation
3.3 MESA and the South Atlantic
3.4 The MESA hydroclimatic component over La Plata Basin
3.5 Project structure and Timeline
Part 4: MESA Field Component
Part 5: Dataset development and Data management
Part 6: Programmatic Context
5.1 Project infrastructure
5.2 Education and Training
5.3 Link with other programs
La Plata Basin (LPB) Program*
• The LPB Science and Implementation Steering Group (SISG)
was formed in April 2005
•LPB SISG: Co-chair for VAMOS/CLIVAR: Hugo Berbery,
University of Maryland and Co-chair for GHP/GEWEX: M.
Assuncao Silva Dias, CPTEC
• The first draft of the LPB Implementation Plan was completed
in December 2005 and submitted to VAMOS and GHP for review.
• The first meeting of the LPB SISG was held in September
2006
* With CLIVAR and GEWEX endorsement
La Plata Basin (LPB) Program
SISG Membership:
Argentina:
Brazil:
Paraguay:
Uruguay:
US:
3
7
1
2½
2½
Ex-officio:
2
Research Areas covered by the
ISG:
Remote sensing
Radar meteorology
Surface processes/flux towers
Mesoscale Modeling
Mesoscale meteorology
Hydrologic modeling
Climate variability
Climate change scenarios
Flood risk and vulnerability
Water resources management
La Plata Basin (LPB) main science questions:
 What climatological and hydrological factors determine the
frequency of occurrence and spatial extent of floods and
droughts?
 How predictable is the regional weather and climate variability
and its impact on hydrological, agricultural and social systems of
the basin?
 What are the impacts of global climate change and land use
change on regional weather, climate, hydrology and
agriculture? To what extent can their impacts be predicted?
La Plata Basin (LPB) science plan available at:
www.atmos.umd.edu/~berbery/lpb
La Plata Basin Priority areas
Extreme events
Land surface
effects
Variability and
trends
SST
Anomalies
(Atl & Pac)
Climate change
scenarios
Hydro-climate
Prediction
LPB Main research areas
* Improvement of hydrologic and climate models’
representation of land surface-atmosphere interactions
* Land surface contributions to hydroclimate predictive skill
* Development of coupled models at adequate resolutions
for hydrologic purposes
* Better estimates of MCS precipitation
* Climate change scenarios (Vulnerability and adaptation)
* Impacts on the system’s hydrology
LPB Timeline (2005-2015)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Build-up Phase
Monitoring
Field Experiment
Model calibrations,
parameterizations
Predictability and
Climate Change studies
Development of an
integrated system
Implementation of LPB CSE
•Data rescue efforts
•Hydro-climatic monitoring activities
•A supersite
•In situ soil moisture measurements
•Flux Towers
•Field Experiment (PLATEX)
•Doppler radar measurements
•Aircraft soil moisture measurements
•Flux towers
•Data management
•Modeling activities
•Development of distributed hydrologic models
•Coupled models
•Data assimilation efforts
•Predictability and climate change assessments
•Land cover/ Land use
•Climate change scenarios and regional downscaling
http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/lpb
CLARIS
A Europe-South America Network
for Climate Change Assessment
and Impact Studies
NCAR (NSF)
Collaborations during
Field Experiment
IAI
Ecosystem, Biodiversity,
Land Use and Cover, and
Water Resources
CIC-GEF
Framework Program for the
sustainable management of the
La Plata Basin water resources,
In relation to climate variability
and change
GEF-Supported Project for the La
Plata Basin
Requesting Agency: United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)
Local Exec Agency: Intergovernmental Coordinating Committee for
La Plata Basin (CIC), in co-operation with water agencies of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,
Paraguay, and Uruguay, and VAMOS/PLATIN
Current Status: The project was presented to GEF for final approval (tentatively by July 2006)
Project Total Cost: GEF has placed $15M on Reserve; Countries and
Other Sources may contribute 2:1 for a potential total of US $45M.
The LPB (former PLATIN) group had the responsibility of planning the Program component
related with the prediction of hydrological impacts due climate variability and change. The plan
includes (including development of climate and hydrologic scenarios for the Basin in the context
of climate change, coordination, integration, and improvement of the operative systems for
atmospheric and hydrological prediction (observing system improvement, conventional and
remote sensing data assimilation, model transferability, etc.)
The participation of the CLIVAR-GEWEX Group in the GEF Program is unquestionably a great
example of how WCRP science can be applied to solve societal needs, while at the same time it
provides additional funding for climate monitoring, field campaigns, as well as regional database
enhancement.
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SWG: C. R. Mechoso (Chair), C. Bretherton, B.
Huebert, J. McWilliams, O. R. Weller, H. Wijesekera,
S.P. Xie
Field Exp (US): C. Fairall, R. Wood
Field Exp (Chile): J. Rutllant, O. Pizarro
VAMOS Project Office: J. Meitin
UCLA; U. Wash; U. Hawaii, U. Chile; U. Concepcion;
IMARPE-Peru; GFDL; NCAR; NCEP; NOAA; WHOI
Science objectives of VOCALS
• Improving the understanding and simulation
of ocean budgets of heat, salinity, and
nutrients in regions of strong upwelling, and
of aerosol-cloud-drizzle interactions in the
marine PBL.
• Elucidating the interactions between the
SEP climate and remote climates.
• Characterizing and eliminating the
systematic biases of coupled atmosphereocean GCMs.
VOCALS
Goal: to develop and promote scientific activities leading to
improved understanding, model simulations, and
predictions of the southeastern Pacific (SEP) coupled
ocean-atmosphere-land system, on diurnal to
interannual timescales.
Objectives:
•
Improving the understanding and simulation of
aerosol-cloud-drizzle interactions in the marine PBL.
•
Improving the understanding and simulation of the
ocean budgets of heat, salinity, and nutrients in the
SEP.
•
Determining, and alleviating the systematic biases of
atmosphere-ocean GCMs in the SEP.
•
Elucidating and understanding interactions between
SEP climate & remote climates.
VOCALS 2005 ACTIVITIES
•
Apr 05 - Science and Implementation Plan revised; see
VOCALS website (www.joss.ucar.edu) (April 2005)
•
Oct 05 - Ron Brown cruise to service WHOI buoy and
collect data in SEP
•
Oct 05 - Visit to Chilean Navy in Valparaiso (Chile) for
logistical arrangements during VOCALS-REX in
October 2007
•
Dec 05 - Interagency Briefing on VOCALS at
Washington DC, organized by US CLIVAR and with
participation of NSF, NOAA, and NASA
•
Jan 06 - VOCALS Session at AMS 2006 Annual Meeting
•
Roberto Mechoso is current chair of VOCALS SWG
MODELING GROUP for VAMOS (MGV)
OBJECTIVES
• Develop VAMOS (Integrated) Modeling Implementation
Plan:
– Assessment of Models (Integration NAME-MESAVOCALS)
• Requires Collaboration / Integration between Research and
Operational Centers
– Hypothesis Driven Numerical Experimentation
– “Climate Process Team” Model
Development/Improvement Strategies
• Need Integration between Field Activities, Data
Assimilation, Research Modeling and Operational
Forecasting
VAMOS MODELING ISSUES
• The MGV requests guidance on how to vet and promote the VAMOS
Modeling Plan (VMP) through international CLIVAR.
• VAMOS recognizes that the VMP, with respect to forecast
verification, is relying heavily on WGSIP and COPES-TFSP activities
and we want to make sure these activities are supported. This is a
particular concern with respect to forecast data sharing.
• Some interaction with the IPCC community is emerging; however,
SSG and JSC support of interactions with WGCM would be
welcomed.
• SSG and JSC review of the modeling plan is welcomed.
MODELING ISSUES
•
•
•
•
Basic “universal” problems relevant to NAMS
– Poor simulation of warm season continental climates
– Poor simulation of diurnal cycle (related to above)
– Poor predictions of warm season precipitation
Resolution issues
– Need to resolve key phenomena
– Application specific (e.g. regional impacts, extreme events)
– Computational issues: need for long runs, large ensembles
Physics issues
– Limitations of convection parameterizations, but intimately
linked to surface interactions, boundary layer, clouds, etc.
– Schemes largely untested at high resolution
Prediction issues
– Role of SSTs (especially other than ENSO)
– Role of land surface feedbacks (strength, time scales)
– Role of intraseasonal variability (e.g. MJO)
– Seasonal differences in predictability
– Current Level of Skill
VAMOS CROSS PANEL AND
WORKING GROUP LINKAGES
Atlantic Panel: Limited progress, although there is some discussion
regarding joint activities in the S. Atlantic (e.g. SW Atlantic convergence
zone).
Pacific Panel: A Workshop on South Pacific Variability was held in Oct 2005 and
VAMOS representative (Vera) participated. Joint model diagnostics were
discussed.
WGSIP: The interaction between both panels is strengthening and joint model
output diagnostic activities are currently underway.
WGCM: Although there has not been formal interaction, the VAMOS community
has presented several diagnostic studies to the WGCM to evaluate IPCC
climate simulations.
CROSS WCRP/COPES LINKAGES
GEWEX: Strong relationship exists (NAME, LBA, and LPB) although it can be
improved. Discussions with the GEWEX Project Office concerning VAMOS
visibility in GEWEX are in progress.
THORPEX: Modeling experiments to improve forecast skills in the South America
monsoon regions are being implemented with the participation of VAMOS
scientists. Formal interactions between VAMOS and THORPEX are planned
for the near future.
IAI: The links between VAMOS and IAI have increased and will be formalized in
the near future. Several VAMOS scientists are members of the IAI/SAC, and
the VAMOS scientific questions are now more explicitly described in the IAI
scientific agenda
10th VAMOS PANEL MEETING
2-5 April 2007, Santiago, Chile
OBJECTIVES:
Celebrate 10 years of VAMOS Progress
Advance the Science and Implementation plans for VOCALS
VOCALS Workshop
VOCALS-REX field campaign in eastern tropical Pacific; methodologies for research;
timeline of field program; relationships to other CLIVAR components.
Discuss MESA Restructuring and Progress
MESA SWG; MESA Science and Implementation Plan; MESA Modeling; MESA
and the LPB CSE;
Discuss NAME Modeling Results
Synthesis of Scientific Results from NAME 2004 Field Campaign;
NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Activities
Discuss New Directions for VAMOS
MGV progress on VAMOS Integrated Modeling Plan
IASCLIP Program
VAMOS STRATEGY
(C.. Roberto Mechoso, VAMOS Chair (1997-2004))
Five outstanding aspects:
1. Identification of a unifying science theme
•
American Monsoon Systems
2. Structure based on science programs of broad interest
•
Spectacular Examples: SALLJEX and NAME 04
•
VAMOS Panel framed the climate context
3. Implementation based on individuals with vested interests
•
Activities carried out by International Teams
4. Panel membership based on strong, active people
•
Champions endowed with VAMOS Panel Support
5. Constant updating of the milestones for success
VAMOS LEGACY
1. A vibrant international community performing coordinated research on the
climate and hydrology of the Americas, sensitive to the leading concerns of the
international research community and to the needs of the weather, climate and
hydrology regional prediction centers.
2. Guidelines for an improved climate monitoring network spanning the Americas
and the tropical Oceans.
3. Enhanced scientific infrastructure in the region, particularly in the less advanced
countries
4. A comprehensive, updated, and accessible database for the climate and hydrology
in the Americas, available on the VAMOS data Information Server site:
(www.joss.ucar.edu/vamos/data)