Transcript Supporting Adaptive Management by Harnessing Climate Change

Supporting adaptive management by
harnessing climate change and water
science information innovation
Rachael McDonnell, Mark Peters,
Shahid Habib, Claire Kfouri
International Center for Biosaline
Agriculture (ICBA) – from field to policy
Scarce data in a water scarce region
Scarce data resources - poor space and
time coverage
 Difficulties of data sharing even within
a country
 Limits management and policydevelopment process

Accessing climate change data is complex
and specialist
Little research in the MENA region as
highlighted in 2007 IPCC report
Temperature anomalies based relative to average 1901-1950
Christienssen et al. 4th assessment report IPCC 2007 WG I
MAWRED - Modeling and monitoring of Agriculture
and Water Resources Development
NASA’s
MENA-LDAS
LIS
WRF
models
Regular data on status of water and agricultural
resources under current and future climate conditions
Water resources
Agriculture
Groundwater, soil moisture, surface
water, evapo-transpiration, drought
monitoring,
Routing module
MENA – LDAS
LIS and WRF
Crop & irrigation
module
Remote sensing data (Landsat,
GRACE, MODIS, AMSR, ASTER,
TRMM, PERSIANN, SMOS)
Atmospheric forcing
(GDAS, CFS, CMIP5)
Climate change scenarios: Long-term
trends (CMIP5)
Land cover/crop type maps,
irrigation intensity, potential crop
yield maps
Seasonal forecast (CFS/NCEP; 6-9 months)
Forecasting
The MAWRED and WISP programs
MAWRED
WISP
Water Information Systems
Platform
Regional and key country level focus Morocco,
Tunisia
Developing data on
Jordan
Ground water, Surface water, Soil
Egypt
Moisture
Lebanon
Crop maps and irrigation water use
Climate change modelling of impacts Each country has specific needs
on water and agriculture
Flooding, agriculture water use,
locusts
Funded by USAID
Partnership with NASA GSFC and
various US universities
Funded by GEF and USAID
coordinated by World Bank W SS
MENA office
Partnership with NASA GSFC and
various US universities
Regional analysis and climate change modeling MENA-LDAS
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING:
rain, snow, T, q, v, Ps, Rg, Rat
Tile
Rn
W
r
LE
H
runoff
G
evaporation
w
gw
2w
3
drainage
drainage
Ws Ds
sno
diffusio
Hs
T
nw
diffusios
T
n
2
Using climate change scenarios to
understand potential impacts
Regional climate change, water and agricultural data will be
made available to all through a web portal in the coming months
Country scale analysis and climate
change modeling -LIS
• Develop country-scale level
output to provide decisionmakers with data specific to
their country’s needs
• Linking remotely sensed
data, with future predictive
modeling to understand
changes to water and
agricultural production
systems
Statistical and dynamic downscaling
Corr: slp & prcp @ KAIROUAN - Tunisia ; Mar
Colored areas are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
60
0.3
0.5
40
0.3
20
0.0
0.3
0
-0.3
-0.5
-20
-1.0
-100
-50
0
50
100
140
Longitude
Mar: 1948 - 2010
Obs.
Fit
GCM
Trends
100
80
60
40
20
model being developed
over high-performance
computing centre for dynamic
downscaling
0
WRF
Prcp (mm/month)
120
Latitude
0.4
0.3
Develop linked model between
global and local atmospheric
influences on climate for
statistical downscaling
Then use this project forward
future conditions

1.0
0.3
Apr: Trend fit: P-value=51%; Projected trend= 1.29+-1.97 mm/month/decade
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
Time
Calibration: Apr prcp anomaly at JENDOUBA , Tunisia using c1: R2=18%, p-value=2%.
2060
Key outputs of MAWRED – access to
data for all



Providing readily available data to all
decision-makers from April 2013
Knowledge hub at ICBA in Dubai open to all
so managers/advisers can come and run
scenarios as they need
ICBA working closely with ministries across
the region and across the sectors to develop
the data they need
Key outputs from MAWRED program –
developed in-country science capabilities

Developing local science capacity



A new cadre of local scientists using leading-edge
climate change modeling systems to generate data
using knowledge of local conditions
Delivery of easy-to-use open-source modeling and incountry training to ensure capabilities within local
institutions is developed to develop further data
Knowledge hub at ICBA open to all scientists from
across the fields who need to undertake local climate
change analysis
MAWRED – helping to support
adaptive management


Managing water requires knowledge of available
resources and potential use under different
climatic conditions
MAWRED is a regional resource to provide local
managers with the data they need to make
informed decisions and adapt policy to changing
conditions
Thank you
[email protected]