Transcript Weniger Quelle, mehr Senke, viel mehr Bioenergie: Was können

Energy Efficiency and
Climate Change
Hartmut Behrend
German Geo-Information Office
Geopolitics Branch
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Content
Climate Change and its impact
 Policy options as response to Climate Change
 Technologies for improving Energy Efficiency
 EU legislation aimed at improving Energy
Efficiency
 Improving Energy Efficiency within the EU
 Outlook

TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Climate Change and its impact
 Policy options as response to Climate Change
 Technologies for improving Energy Efficiency
 EU legislation aimed at improving Energy
Efficiency
 Improving Energy efficiency within the EU
 Outlook

TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Facts on Climate Change

Cause: Emissions of greenhouse gases
esp. CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels
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Increase of global average temperature
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0.8°C since 1850
0.2°C/decade (0.3°C on continents) since 1975
Warming by 2100: approx. 3°C ± 1.5°C
Targets of EU:
To meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol
 To limit global warming by 2°C
 To decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 60-80 % by 2050
(basis 1990)

TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Change of Temperature
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Difference (°C) from 1961 - 90
Global mean temperature
Annual mean
Linear trends
Smoothed series
5-95% decadal error
bars
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Observations of Climate
Change
Global mean
temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern hemisphere
snow cover
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Further Observations
Precipitation:
Reduction in Subtropics, increase in
higher latitudes, more intensive torrential
rains (flooding)
Permafrost:
Area reduced by 7% since 1900
Sea ice:
Reduction by 2.7 ± 0.6% per decade
Tropical storms: Intensifying (monitored esp. in Caribbean)
Oceans (pH-value):
Reduction by 0.1
(acidification)
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Projections of Future
Changes in Temperature
Low Scenario
(B1) 1.8°C
(1.1 – 2.9°C)
High Scenario
(A1FI) 4.0°C
(2.4°C – 6.4°C)
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Projections of precipitation
1990 – 2090, Scenario A1B
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Further Projections by 2100
Sea level:
Increase by 40 (± 20 cm)
Precipitation:
Subtropics: decrease
Tropical and higher latitudes: increase
more intensive torrential rains
Sea ice:
Further reduction – Arctic before 2100
during summer free of ice, evtl. 2030
Oceans :
Acidification (Reduction of pH-value by
0.14 – 0.35)
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Impact (1)
Water Resources:
•
Increase of run-off of rivers in high latitudes and some tropical regions by
10 - 40%
•
Decrease of the run-off of rivers in mid-latitudes and subtropics by 10 - 30%
•
Critical decrease of water resources resulting from run-off of rivers
originating from Himalaya and Andes mountains (melting of glaciers).
Ca. 20% of world population is affected.
Nutrition:
•
Increase of global production of foodstuff until ca. 2050, afterwards
decrease
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Decrease of global production of foodstuff in tropical and subtropical
regions; in some countries of Sub-Sahara Africa by up to 50% by 2020
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Impact (2)
Health:
•
Increase of malnutrition (contra Millenium Development Goals)
•
New infection sources through spreading of diseases from lower
latitudes (insects, virus, rodents,...).
Coasts:
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Flooding and erosion by increasing sea level
•
Increase of flooding through more intensive tropical storms
Ecosystems:
•
Extinction of many species (ca. 30 %) because of barriers
(mountains, sea, missing connections between biotopes, etc.).
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Disastrous Impact of Climate Change
High-impact low-probability events
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Melting of the Greenland ice-shield
(possible already very soon)
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Breaking apart of the West-Antarctic ice-shield
(most probably only after 2100)
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Collapse of the gulf stream
(relatively improbable before 2100)
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Climate Change and its impact
 Policy options as response to Climate Change
 Technologies for improving Energy Efficiency
 EU legislation aimed at improving Energy
Efficiency
 Improving Energy efficiency within the EU
 Outlook

TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Mitigation vs. Adaptation
Mitigation to climate change costs much less than adaptation
 Adaptation will costs ca. 5% of GDP – if warming is below 5°C
 Adaptation will cost much more above 5°C
 Catastrophic events have low probability up to 2°C and high probability
above 5°C
 Mitigation will cost 1% of GDP
Climate Change is the result of the greatest market failure
the world has ever seen
 Global average temperature already 0.8°C above 1850 level
 Global average temperature will increase at least by another 0.6°C
 We are committed already to a global warming of ca. 1.5°C
 Need for adaptation even if we proceed successfully with mitigation
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Mitigation options
Increasing energy efficiency
 Increasing share of renewable energies
 Change of behaviour
 Research and development of new
technology
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TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Climate Change and its impact
 Policy options as response to Climate Change
 Technologies for improving Energy Efficiency
 EU legislation aimed at improving Energy
Efficiency
 Improving Energy efficiency within the EU
 Outlook

TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Improvement of energy efficiency
in buildings
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•
•
•
improved isolation of walls
triplex glazing of windows
strong reflecting material
optimal usage of solar radiation for
design
• improved boilers
• energy-efficient electrical equipment
Roughly 30% of energy can be saved almost without costs
timeframe: 2005 - 2030
Obstacles for saving energy are mainly lack of knowledge
and in-transparency of market
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Increase of efficiency of
power plants
• Power plants fired with hard coal:
world-average efficiency: 36%
best technology:
42 - 48%
• Gas-fired power plants:
world-average efficiency: 50%
best technology:
60%
Reduction potential 2005 – 2030 (worldwide)
• 25% at carbon costs of 20 US $ per t CO2
• 37% at carbon costs of 50 US $ per t CO2
• 40% at carbon costs of 100 US $ per t CO2
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Combined Heat- and
Power Generation
Efficiency above 80% (up to 90%)
 In EU, 11% of electricity is produced by
CHP
 In Germany, CHP is planned to increase to
25% by 2020
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Electro-mobility
Promoted in EU to increase efficiency of
cars
 Problem: batteries only reach up to 300
km currently
 Break-through in LiCl-batteries
 Through R&D further improvement of
batteries
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Other important technologies
Improvement of efficiency of engines in
industry
 Improvement of efficiency of vehicles
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 Reduction
of weight
 Increase of efficiency of engine
 Switch from petrol to diesel
 Usage of breaking energy
 Decrease of the aerodynamic drag
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Climate Change and its impact
 Policy options as response to Climate Change
 Technologies for improving Energy Efficiency
 EU legislation aimed at improving Energy
Efficiency
 Improving Energy efficiency within the EU
 Outlook

TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
European Climate
Change Programme
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Targets
Identification und development of the elements of an EU-strategy
for reaching the -8% target of the Kyoto Protocol
o Preparation of new legislative initiatives and programmes of the
Community for supporting the climate policies of Member States
 Launched in March 2000
o
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Legislation for increasing energy efficiency
o
o
o
o
o
o
Energy performance of buildings (2002)
Emission Trading Directive (2003)
Combined heat- and power Directive (2004)
Eco-design directive (2005)
Energy End-use Efficiency and Energy Services Directive (2006)
Regulation for decreasing CO2-emissions of cars to 130 g/km
2015 and 95 g/km 2020 (proposal)
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Common Energy- and
Climate Policies
Reason
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Ca. 80% of EU greenhouse gas emissions are energy
related
Target
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To combat climate change
To increase energy security and competitiveness
To have a convincing strategy for post-Kyoto
Economic Impact
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Reduction of oil- and gas imports by € 50 billion by 2020
Increase jobs in renewable energies industry
from 300.000 to 1 million in 2020
Costs: ca. 0.5% of GDP
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Council Conclusions from
March 2007
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Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 20%
(1990-2020)
Increase of share of renewable energies to 20% by
2020
Increase of energy efficiency by 20% (1990 – 2010)
Increase of share of bio-fuels to 10% of gasoline and
diesel consumption (2020)
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Climate Change and its impact
 Policy options as response to Climate Change
 Technologies for improving Energy Efficiency
 EU legislation aimed at improving Energy
Efficiency
 Improving Energy Efficiency within the EU
 Outlook

TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Increase of EU energy efficiency
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Most important data
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Increase of energy efficiency including fuel switch
27% from 1990 – 2005 (per year 1,3%, 3% in new
Member States)
Increase of efficiency of the production of electricity
and heat
from 43% 1990 to 47% 2005
Share of CHP 2005
11% of total gross electricity production
Decrease of final energy concumption of households
By 0.4 % per year (1990 – 2005)
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
Outlook
Change to an energy-efficient economy
 Mitigation of climate change
 Forging of an efficient post-Kyoto climate
regime 2009 in Copenhagen
 Decreasing dependence of energy resources
 Increasing energy security
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Thank you very much for
your attention
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009
TAIEX-Workshop, Kiev, 02.02.2009