Transcript climate-exchange-andrea-taylor

Rain or shine? Understanding public
perceptions of weather and climate risk
Dr Andrea Taylor
Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School
Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment
[email protected]
University of Leeds
Prof Wӓndi Bruine de Bruin
Prof Suraje Dessai
University College London
Dr Carmen Lefevre
Carnegie Mellon University
Prof Baruch Fischoff
Dr Kelly Klima
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Dr Sari Kovats
Funding
Climate change is a
concept that can be
difficult to understand
Linking it to specific types
of weather events may
make it more concrete
and personally relevant
- Weber and Stern (2009)
Why is this important to explore this?
•Awareness
•Mitigation
•Adaptation
Local warming
Climate change concern
amongst US public
influenced by local
temperatures.
(e.g., Deryugina, 2013; Egan & Mullin, 2012;
Hamilton & Stampone, 2013; Risen et al., 2011)
However, not all countries
experience frequent hot
summers.
Residents in temperate
regions may even look forward
to the prospect of warmer
summers (Bruine de Bruine et al., 2016;
Lefevre et al., 2015 Palutikof et al., 2004)
However, increased
temperatures are not the
only projected impact of
climate change
The UK Climate Change
Risk Assessment projects
an increase in rainfall and
flooding
Rochdale Town Centre, Boxing Day 2015.
Photographer: Chris Birtles
Studies 1 and 2 (Taylor et al., 2014; Lefevre et al, in review)
To what extent are perceptions of weather linked to beliefs
about climate change amongst UK residents?
Gordon Hatton
http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/126451
John Brightley
http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/2201581
Robert Wade
http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/1925559
9
Study 1
A lot more
frequent
5
4
No
change
3
2
1
Floods
Heavy
rain
Coast
erosion
Mild
winters
Cold
winters
Snow
Drought
Heat
waves
Hot
summers
“Do you think that the following have become more or less frequent over
your lifetime” (n=2007: Survey conducted by Ipsos MORI, 2013)
At lot less
frequent
Relationship between perceived change in
weather climate change concern
Perceived change in….
Wet weather
Regression (β)
.28***
Cold weather
.02
Hot weather
.15***
*Sig at p≤.05
**Sig at p≤.01
***Sig at p≤.001
Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic
variables
Explanations
For UK residents extreme wet weather is easier to recall
•Availability Heuristic: Threats judged to be riskier when they
are easily recalled (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973)
For UK residents hot weather is often felt to be pleasant
•Affect Heuristic: Threats judged to be more risky when they
(Slovic et al., 2004)
Limitation: This study only looked at perceptions at one
point in time. We can’t tell what causes what.
•Experiential Reasoning:
Perceived
Climate
weather
concern
•Motivational Reasoning:
Climate
concern
(e.g. Myers et al., 2012; Weber, 2010)
Perceived
weather
Study 2: A national UK sample was presented with the same questions
as Study 1 at three points during 2013/14
Perceived
change in…
Oct 2013
April 2014
July 2014
Regression (β) Regression (β) Regression (β)
Wet weather
.47***
Cold weather
-.04
Hot weather
.15***
.13**
**Sig at p≤.01
***Sig at p≤.001
*Sig at p≤.05
.43***
-.00
.40***
-.00
.15***
Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic
variables
• Motivational reasoning was found for wet and hot weather.
• Experiential reasoning was only found for wet weather.
• Conclusions
• For UK residents concern about climate change leads to
greater perceived experience of wet and hot weather.
• However, only perceived experience of wet weather leads
to greater climate change concern.
• Attributable to the greater “availability” of wet weather,
and the positive “affect” evoked by hot weather.
Study 3 (Taylor et al., in review)
What are UK residents expectations and priorities
with respect to the future impacts of climate
change?
PREPARE (Ipsos MORI, 2013: n=2007)
•Each participant randomly shown 10 out of 19 impacts.
•Impacts included opportunities as well as threats.
•Participants rated expected likelihood, expected concern and
willingness to allocate resources.
•We compared concern with expert assessments of
severity (Climate Change Risk Assessment, 2012)
Taylor et al. (IN REVIEW)
• Threats perceived as more
likely that opportunities
• Public expectations not always
consistent with expert
assessment.
• Wet weather and flooding
perceived as most likely (and
most concerning).
• Concern about specific impacts
predicted willingness to allocate
resources.
Conclusions
•Concern about specific impacts rather than broader climate
concern is linked to greater willingness to expend resources.
•However, residents may be less well prepared for future
increases in hot weather than future increases in wet weather
Study 4 (Taylor et al., in preparation)
How accurate are UK and US residents perceptions of recent
temperature and rainfall?
Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they link
perceived experience of temperature and rainfall to personal
threat from climate change?
Perceived seasonal temperatures: UK and US residents
“Warmer than normal”
“About normal”
“Colder than normal”
US=488 participants, UK=462 participants
Perceived seasonal rainfall: UK and US residents
“Wetter than normal”
5
4.5
4
3.5
“About normal”
3
2.5
2
1.5
“Drier than normal”
1
Local
National
Global
Local
Summer 2013
National
Winter 2013/14
US
UK
US=488 participants, UK=462 participants
Global
Key findings
•Recalled national conditions did not always match
observations, and appear to be driven by prominent events.
•Peoples appear to generalise perceived experience of to
national and global conditions (“attribute substitution”).
•Amongst US residents perceived hot summers linked to
greater perceived threat from climate change.
•Amongst UK residents wet winters linked to greater perceived
threat from climate change.
Study 5 (Klima et al., in preparation)
Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they are
prepared to take steps to adapt to different types of climate
change impact?
Expectations about future weather
Expectations for worse
weather
5
United States
United Kingdom
4
3
2
1
Hot
Wet
Windy
Type of Weather
Hot
Wet
Windy
Type of Weather
US=474 participants, UK=607 participants
Willingness to adapt
Willingness to adapt
United Kingdom
United States
5
4
3
2
1
Hot
Wet
Windy
Type of Weather
Hot
Wet
Windy
Type of Weather
US=474 participants, UK=607 participants
Linear regressions predicting willingness to adapt (unstandardized B) from weather
expectations and climate change concerns.
United States
United Kingdom
Variables
Hot
Wet
Windy
Expectations for worse weather
0.19*
0.18*
Climate change concerns
0.23**
R2
0.31
***
**
+
p<0.001; p<0.01; *p<0.05; p<0.10.
Hot
Wet
0.20*
0.28***
0.28***
0.26**
0.25**
0.29**
0.20**
0.15+
0.15+
0.29
0.32
0.32
0.34
0.28
Note: OLS regression model controlled for demographic
variables
Windy
Key findings
•US residents more willing to adapt to increases hot than wet
weather.
•UK residents more willing to adapt to increases in wet than
hot weather
•For both UK and US residents expectations about future
weather predicted willingness to adapt.
Conclusions
•Concern about climate change and its impacts linked to
“availability” and “affect”.
•Perceptions of weather can drive climate change concern,
but climate change concern also drive weather perceptions
•Public recollections and expectations do not always match
expert observations and projections.
•Willingness to adapt may be driven more by concern about
specific impacts than general concern about climate change
Implications for communication
Mitigation
•Be aware that the impacts that people associate with climate
change varies between regions.
•While weather experience can drive concern, concern may
also influence perceived weather experience.
Adaptation
•Focusing on specific impacts rather than general climate
concerns may be more effective in increasing preparedness.
Climate Change
Adaptation Group
http://lubswww2.leeds.ac.uk/cdr/
http://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/research/sri/climate-change-adaptation-group/
Thank you!
Jul
Jul
Jul
Experiential path
Motivational path
Note: Covariance paths and control variables are omitted for presentation purposes.
‡p<
.10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001
33
Jul
Jul
Jul
Experiential path
Motivational path
Note: Covariance paths and control variables are omitted for presentation purposes.
‡p<
.10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001
Expert Assessment (CCRA)
Impact
Nature of impact Projected “Consequence”
Public expectations and priorities
Likelihood
(1-5 scale)
Concern
(1-4 scale)
Resource
allocation
(Out of 15)
More homes being flooded as a result of heavy rainfall (n=1019)
Threat
High
4.16 (0.78)*
3.29 (0.72)*
2.26 (1.88)*
Poor harvests, due to extreme weather, pushing up food prices (n=993)
Threat
No Rating
4.05 (0.83)*
3.46 (0.68)*
2.87 (2.11)*
Low lying coasts being permanently flooded or eroded by rising sea levels (n=977)
Threat
Medium
3.95 (0.83)*
3.20 (0.77)*
1.55 (1.52)
Some types of wildlife are lost or decline in number because they cannot relocate to where the climate remains suitable for them
(n=1009)
Threat
Medium
3.95 (0.86)*
3.20 (0.83)*
1.44 (1.62)
New pests and diseases become common in the UK (n=1002)
Threat
Medium
3.76 (0.90)*
3.20 (0.80)*
1.81 (1.50)*
Public services like roads, power stations, schools and hospitals being disrupted as a result of heavy rainfall (n=1016)
Threat
High
3.74 (0.95)*
3.18 (0.74)*
2.52 (1.91)*
Air pollution gets worse from hotter weather, which particularly affects people with poor health or breathing problems (n=1000)
Threat
No Rating
3.70 (0.95)*
3.15 (0.79)*
1.86 (1.53)*
A reduction in marine wildlife from changes in sea temperature (n=973)
Threat
Medium
3.67 (0.94)*
3.16 (0.80)*
1.15 (1.26)*
Droughts causing serious water shortages due to changes in rainfall patterns (n=992)
Threat
High
3.63 (0.98)*
3.26 (0.78)*
2.37 (1.80)*
Opportunity
Medium
3.56 (0.90)*
2.04 (0.88)*
0.75 (1.37)*
More people’s health suffering in extreme heat due to more frequent heat waves (n=1014)
Threat
High
3.46 (1.03)*
3.16 (0.78)*
1.81 (1.58)*
Increased demand for energy for cooling (e.g. air conditioning) due to a warmer climate (n=987)
Threat
Medium
3.42 (1.03)*
2.72 (0.85)*
1.07 (1.36)*
Cities and large towns, which trap heat, becoming unbearably hot due to heat waves (n=982)
Threat
Region specific
3.27 (1.07)*
2.82 (0.88)*
0.86 (1.07)*
Fewer vulnerable people dying in the cold due to milder winters (n=958)
Opportunity
High
3.14 (0.95)*
1.90 (0.93)*
0.64 (1.34)*
More people living in the UK take their holidays in the UK rather than going on holiday abroad, due to a warmer UK climate (n=985)
Opportunity
Medium
3.06 (1.06)
1.73 (0.80)*
1.07 (1.84)*
Threat
Low
3.04 (1.06)
2.82 (0.83)*
1.47 (1.45)
Both
No Rating
2.93 (1.06)
2.92 (0.91)*
0.31 (0.80)*
Lower demand for energy due to warmer winters (n=974)
Opportunity
Medium
2.92 (1.02)
1.71 (0.80)*
0.30 (0.89)*
More tourists choosing to visit the UK because of a warmer climate (n=986)
Opportunity
Medium
2.89 (1.00)*
1.82 (0.80)*
0.31 (0.73)*
New crops become more common in the UK due to a warmer climate (n=996)
Disruption to trains, roads, and public transport due to more frequent heat waves (n=1006)
More people move to the UK because of changes in the climate of their own country (n=963)
Correlation (Pearson’s R)
Likelihood
with concern
Likelihood
with
climate
change
belief
Concern
with climate
change
belief
A reduction in marine wildlife…
More homes being flooded as a result of heavy rainfall
Some types of wildlife are lost or decline in number…
Low lying coasts being permanently flooded or eroded…
Poor harvests, due to extreme weather, pushing up food prices
Air pollution gets worse from hotter weather…
Public services…being disrupted as a result of heavy rainfall
Droughts causing serious water shortages…
New pests and diseases… become common in the UK
.51*
.51*
.52*
.50*
.43*
.46*
.47*
.43*
.48*
.54*
.50*
.49*
.48*
.46*
.44*
.43*
.43*
.37*
.52*
.42*
.49*
.39*
.39*
.41*
.47*
.44*
.39*
Cities and large towns… becoming unbearably hot due to heat waves
Disruption to… transport due to more frequent heat waves
Increased demand for energy for cooling…
More people’s health suffering in extreme heat…
New crops previously grown abroad become more common in the
UK…
More people living in the UK take their holidays in the UK…
More people permanently move to the UK…
More tourists choosing to visit the UK…
Lower demand for energy due to warmer winters…
.43*
.40*
.42*
.42*
.35*
.31*
.31*
.30*
.13*
Fewer vulnerable people dying in the cold due to milder winters…
Impact (ordered by strength of association between perceived
likelihood and climate change belief)
Regression coefficient (standardized β)
showing independent contribution to
willingness to allocate resources to impacts a
Expected
likelihood
Expected
concern
Climate
change belief
.08
.08
.06
-.01
.01
.06
-.01
.04
.08
.14*
.29*
.11
.21*
.22*
.16*
.21*
.14*
.17*
.21*
.15*
-.04
-.05
.03
-.06
-.12*
-.06
-.14*
-.14*
-.05
-.04
.35*
.34*
.34*
.33*
.03
.06
.10
.13*
.15*
.21*
-.09
.07
-.10
.24*
.20*
.13*
.01
-.05
.20*
.23*
.14*
.20*
.17*
.17*
.15*
.13*
.10
-.01
<.01
.13*
.09
.03
.10*
-.05
.24*
.31*
.13*
.16*
-.07
-.05
-.12*
.02
.17*
.08
.12*
-.04
.13*
-.06
North East
East North Central
Central
South East
South
South West
West
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Local
National
Summer 2013
Global
Local
National
Winter 2013/14
Global
For US residents perceived threat from climate change was
linked to perceived experience of hot summer temperatures.
For UK residents perceived threat from climate change was
driven by perceived experience of winter rainfall.