Transcript English - Adaptation Community

Climate change and
climate change adaptation
An introduction
Trainer team:
XX
XX
‘Date’
25.03.2017
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Imprint
As a federally owned enterprise, GIZ supports the
German Government in achieving its objectives in
the field of international cooperation for sustainable
development.
Responsible
Ilona Porsché, GIZ; Michael Scholze, GIZ
Published by
Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Contributions by
Alfred Eberhardt, Mark Svendsen, Lea Herberg, Martin Baumgart,
Udo Höggel, Michael Scholze, Alexander Fröde, Nana Künkel,
members of the OECD Task Team on Climate Change and
Development Co-operation
Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-5
65760 Eschborn, Germany
T +49 61 96 79-0
F +49 61 96 79-1115
Contact
E [email protected]
I www.giz.de
GIZ Climate Protection Programme
Authors
Jennifer Frankel-Reed, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder, Ilona Porsché
Coordination
Ilona Porsché, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder
Photo credits
© GIZ/Climate Protection Programme and Claudia Altmann,
Dirk Ostermeier, Florian Kopp, Georg Buchholz, Ira Olaleye,
Jörg Böthling, Manuel Hauptmann, Markus Kirchgessner,
Michael Gajo, Michael Netzhammer, Nicole Herzog, Peter Korneffel,
Richard Lord, Robert Heine, Rüdiger Behrens, Ulrich Scholz,
Ursula Meissner, Uwe Rau
Design
Ira Olaleye
Articles written by named authors do not
necessarily reflect the views of the editors.
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Terms of use
This training module has been developed by GIZ on behalf of BMZ.
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Overview
Climate change





Greenhouse effect
Emissions
Scenarios
Climate change impacts
The development concern
Adaptation to climate change
 Definition
 Costs
 Operationalising adaptation
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Climate change
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Source: Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group 1. Contribution to the 4. AR
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CO2 concentration over time
Oct 2010: 388 ppm
World Development report 2010. p 4
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The carbon cycle: stocks and fluxes
Source: World Development report. 2010. Focus A: The science of climate change. Adapted from IPCC. 2007
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Global greenhouse gas emissions: composition
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva
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Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector
Source: Stern, N. 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. World Bank. 2009. Minding the Stock
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Trying to look into the future
Emission scenarios
A2 – heterogeneous world, high
population, slow economic
development and technological
change
A1T - very intensive
development, population peak
mid century
A1T new technologies with use
of non-fossil energy sources
A1Fl fossil intensive energy
supply
B1 – same population as A1,
rapid changes in economic
structures towards a service and
information economy,
introduction of clean and
resource efficient technologies
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva, adapted by CDE
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Greenhouse gas emissions by region (2004)
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva
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Example:
Projected temperature changes – scenario
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva
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Example:
Projected temperature changes – spatial distribution
For 2090; reference period: 1980 – 1999
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva
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Projected impact on human well-being
2 °C
Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva
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Example:
Climate change and the development concern (1)
Thailand
Kiribati
Argentina
Source: WWF Climate Witness: www.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/people_at_risk/personal_stories
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Example:
Climate change and the development concern (2)
Thailand
Kiribati
Argentina
Source: WWF Climate Witness: www.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/people_at_risk/personal_stories
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Example:
Climate change and the development concern (3)
Aid flows affected by climate risk
in red
Shaded areas indicate uncertainty.
Total aid flows in millions USD, 1998-2000
~30 – 60% of
ODA potentially
affected by
climate change
Fiji
Bangladesh Egypt
Tanzania Uruguay
Nepal
Fiji
Source: OECD, Bridge Over Troubled Waters (2005)
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Adaptation to climate change
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Defining adaptation
Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual
or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or
exploit beneficial opportunities.
Global climate change: change in mean global
temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall,
pressure, circulation, etc.
Mitigation:
reduce
emissions,
reducing
magnitude
of CC
Greenhouse
gas emissions
Climate change
impacts
Adaptation:
reduce
vulnerability
to CC
impacts,
reduce
losses
Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies
Source: UNDP
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external costs
External cost
External cost of air p
air pollutants
Emissions of c
air polluta
Emission
external costs
Adaptation – a case for urgency
external costs
external costs
Of CO2 -emissions
emissions
External cost
emissions
Of CO2 -emissions
Reaction time
time
Reaction
External cost
CO2-emissions
CO2-emissions
measures
measures
Quelle: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss Accademics,2007
Quelle: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss Accademics,2007
Source: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss academics, 2007
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Costs: Estimated adaptation costs and investment
requirements in developing countries
Source
Estimate
(US$ bn/yr)
World Bank as revised by the Stern Review
(2006)
4 – 37
Oxfam (2007)
8 – 33
UNFCCC (2007)
28 – 67 (in 2030)
UNDP: HDR 2007 – 08
86 (in 2016)
World Bank (2009)
75 – 100 (2010 – 2050)
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Costs: Estimates by sector
Sector
Global
(billion USD)
Share in developing
countries
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
(production, processing, R&D)
14
50%
Water supply
(water supply infrastructure)
11
80%
Human health
(diarrheal disease, malnutrition
and malaria)
5
100%
Coastal zone
(beach nourishment and dykes)
11
40%
Infrastructure
(new infrastructure adaptation)
8-130
25%
Source: UNFCCC 2007
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Operationalising adaptation
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What are adaptation options?
Policy
 Improve regulations, adjust incentive system, enhance participation of
affected communities
Infrastructure
 For example: Water control – construct dykes, improve climate-resilient
infrastructure
Capacity development
 Improve monitoring of sea temperature, erosion rates; improve
management skills
Research
 Monitoring for policy advise, climate-resilient breeds/species
Good practices
 Soil conservation, to improve agricultural yields, keep ecosystem
functions intact
Source: Adapted from USAID 2007
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Who acts and how?
 Public sector responsibilities: setting rules and regulations for public
assets, public services, public goods, social protections, preventing
conflict and managing migration
 Individuals and communities: household preparedness, autonomous
adaptation, share losses
 Private sector: integrate climate risks into project design and services
(climate-resilient investments)
 International cooperation: financial responsibility, resilient ODA,
capacity development
Source: Adapted from OECD Policy Guidance
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Difference between business-as-usual
development and adaptation
A continuum:
Human development and vulnerability reduction  response
capacity  managing climate change risks  confronting climate
change
Source: WRI 2007
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A systematic and strategic approach to adaptation
 Screening
 brief check if, what and where (M1)
 Analysis
 Detailed assessment of need for adaptation action (M3)
 What are adaptation options? (M4)
 Which are the priorities? (M5)
 How can we track changes and learn from experiences? (M6)
 Prepare implementation
 Develop according capacities (M7)
 Financing
 Implementation
4-step
approach
can be done
at national,
sectoral, local
and project
level
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Addressing climate change
improves development effectiveness
 Cost-effective: Ignoring climate risks can be costly. Prevention through
adaptation is cheaper.
 Integrated: Adaptation looks at multiple stressors including climate and
non-climate, and can prevent ‘maladaptation’.
 Flexible: Adaptation builds institutional and technical capacity to adjust
to risks over time as they evolve, improving flexibility.
Source: Adapted from UNDP
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Example: Comparing prevention vs.
reconstruction costs of infrastructure in the Caribbean
Deepwater
Port
(Dominica)
Norman
Manley Law
School
(Jamaica)
Troumasse
Bridge
(St. Lucia)
Grand
Palazzo
Hotel
(St. Thomas)
57,000,000
685,000
185,000
28,000,000
2,310,000
28,800
32,000
5,308,000
RMNH costs as % of original construction costs
11.5%
1.9%
10.8%
0.1%
RMNH costs as % of reconstruction costs
28.0%
45.0%
62.4%
0.5%
Infrastructure
Original project cost
Reconstruction costs after disaster
RMNH = Risk management of natural hazards approach
Amounts given in 2005 US Dollars
Source: Adapted from Bettencourt et al. 2006
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