Transcript Projected WBGT in South-East Asia, afternoon, March

CLIMATE CHANGE, EXCESSIVE HEAT EXPOSURE,
AND RISK ASSESSMENT
The Climate CHIP tool for new analysis and policy development
Prof. Tord Kjellstrom
Centre for Global Health Research
University of Umea, Sweden
and
*National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health
The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
MoPH seminar, Nr 1, Bangkok, 15 November 2013
The climate change and health panorama
 Climate change has created new interest in climate
conditions and health --- not just change is important, but
the current conditions
 Mitigation reduces extent of ongoing climate change
 Adaptation reduces impacts on human society and health
from climate change we can’t avoid
 Elderly and children are usually listed as vulnerable groups
for climate change, but working age people are also
vulnerable, and their health and well-being affects family
health and community health ….. the links are important
 Health Risk Assessment is an essential component of
effective prevention
 (gave a seminar on this at Thai MoPH on 17 September, 2012)
Key points, presented in Sept 2012:
CLIMATE CHANGE, PUBLIC HEALTH, OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH, HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Climate conditions are well known to affect health via heat,
cold, rain (floods), no rain (drought), cloud cover, and wind
Local climate conditions and changes influence many public
health risks, including occupational health risks
Global and local climate change is ongoing, mostly humaninduced, and will continue
Workplace heat exposures are a threat to work productivity,
as well as occupational health
Preventive policies and actions needed
Research gaps create occupational health threats
The health sector in Thailand (in collaboration with other
sectors) has an important role in reducing the major health
and economic threats from climate change
Climate challenges to health
 Heat ….. A key health threat …. and behind other risks
 Cold ….. Lower than average temperatures linked to
mortality increase (Tawatsupa et al)
 Rain (floods) …. Direct effects of water risks, lack of
infrastructure services, lack of clean drinking water and
food, displacement into camps, mental stress..
 No rain, drought …. Lack of drinking water, food
production stops, heat …..
 Cloud cover …. Too much or too long … poor agricultural
growth, “bad weather” mental stress, lack of tourist
business …
 Wind …. Extreme wind causes injuries, damage to
agriculture, lack of infrastructure services…..
 Sea level, storm surge, shape of bays ……
30
15
-5
25
30
35
10
-5
0
.4
.6
5
.8
10
Hot South
…. seeTawatsupa et al
analysis of monthly
25
30
35
40
temp and mortality in
Central Thailand and
Bangkok
5
15
.2
15
1
15
-5
0
-5
0
-5
.4
5
.6
.8
10
.2
.4
5
.6
….. the most studied
climate
and
health
25
30
35
40
problem.
0
5
.8
10
Heat and mortality
10
Cold South
0
Density
Cold Central
.2
0
15
1
15
1
15
Central
0
Wet South
.8
0
40
1
35
.6
30
.4
25
10
40
5
35
0
40
.2
-5
30
10
1
35
5
.8
30
0
15
.6
15
25
0
-5
.4
10
Density
.2
5
25
Density
0
0
Hot Central
1
-5
40
Wet Central
.8
40
.6
35
.4
40
.2
10
Wet season
35
5
35
Density
Cold Northeast
Cold
season
0
0
30
-5
Hot season
Density
Hot Northeast
30
Density
Wet Northeast
rtheast
South
40
Occupational heat exposure and effects, acute
Acute health effects of excessive heat exposure at work
- Sweating, dehydration, salt loss
-
Loss of perceptual and motor performance
Heat exhaustion
Increased accident risk
Increased body temperature (>37 oC)
(>38 oC involves heat strain; >39 oC is dangerous except for short
periods; >40 oC can lead to the serious effects listed below)
- Heat stroke, Unconsciousness, Death
- Mental effects, increased violence
- - Loss of ability to work intensively due to heat exhaustion
-
Tawatsupa et al studies using data from “Thai Cohort Study”:
general impacts on overall health and mental stress from heat
Chronic effects of Occupational heat exposure
Chronic health effects of excessive heat exposure
-
Worse clinical status for people with common chronic diseases
(ageing working population)
-
Heat sensitivity problems for specific disease victims: e.g. MS
-
Kidney damage due to daily dehydration if lack of water access
(reference for all effects: Book by Parsons, 2003)
-
Tawatsupa et al studies using data from “Thai Cohort Study”:
decrease of general health, increased occupational accidents,
increase of reported kidney disease among working people who
stated high exposure to heat at work
Vulnerable working groups
Working people in tropical and sub-tropical countries
during the hot season, particularly if working in in hot
sunlight
Workers who need to work continuously at high physical
intensity
Agricultural workers
Construction workers
Emergency workers
Migrant workers
Workers in factories or workshops without efficient cooling
systems, a common situation in Low-Middle-Income
countries
Workers in slum workshops and other low income workers
Heat stress, a serious occupational hazard in heavy labor
outdoors: lack of hydration leads to kidney damage; ongoing
serious epidemic in Central America
Sugar cane cutting, Nicaragua
Heat inside shoe factory, Vietnam: Fixed daily production targets
……. Takes 2 hours longer in hot summer days (35 oC)
Dangerous working conditions, including heat:
Dar es Salaam slum, 2006
Exposure to chemicals that
evaporate faster in hot work
environments
Several potential OSH risks
Extreme weather events; many after effects
Occupational heat stress
Kidney disease due to daily dehydration
Vector-borne diseases
Ecological change diseases
Infectious diseases
Nutritional security
Social tensions – mental health
Increased chemical exposures
International standard (ISO, 1989) for heat Stress in the
Workplace: Recommended increase rest time per hour
100
90
Percent
of full
working
capacity
Job exertion required (Watts)
500 400 300 200
e.g.
2 C rise
approx.
halves
work
output
o
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20 oC
25 oC
30 oC
35 oC
Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)
40 oC
Calculated hourly WBGT outdoors, in the sun and
resulting hourly "work capacity" (based on ISO, 1989)
for workers in heavy labour jobs (500W), Delhi, 1999
WBGT outdoors
Work capacity (%) when working at 500W
intensity
May
40
May
100
% 90
35
d 80
o 70
W 60
0
0
5 50
_
y
ti 40
li
b 30
a 20
k
r
o 10
W 0
C30
d
o25
T
G
B20
W
15
10
0
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Time
0
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Time
Heat impact on productivity of rice harvesters in
West Bengal (Sahu et al., Industrial Health, 2013)
Comparison epidemiological study results and ISO
standard (Kjellstrom et al, WHO report)
Hothaps-Soft
The new Hothaps-Soft
software for describing
local heat exposure
conditions and trends
NOAA/GSOD Data Set
impor
t
Hothaps Database
find
It includes daily data from
>18,000 weather stations
around the world, and
monthly CRU grid cell data
for the same locations
It will be integrated into
new ClimateCHIP.org
website Risk Assessment
tool package
List of weather
stations
Statisti
cs
Breakdown of
data availability
Graphs, trends,
threshold analyses and
quality control
Numerical data for further
analysis
Hothaps-Soft: Monthly heat exposure diagrams;
median and 25- and 40-% up and down.
Two time points, 1980s and recent 5 years
Different seasonal patterns; Bangkok and Hanoi
Annual averages of daily Tmax, Tmean and Tmin for weather
station ( __ , slopes 0.27, 0.39 oC/decade) and grid cell ( ------,
slope 0.29, 0.38 oC/dec ); comparison NOAA and CRU
Local heat trends is what matters:
Time trends of extreme days using Hothaps-Soft:
WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) as an indicator of heat exposure
 a function of Temperature, Humidity, Wind speed, Heat radiation
Each decade, 13 more super-hot days
5 cities, WBGTmax, time trends 1980-2011
Mapping heat stress …… Projected WBGTmax , March
In shade 1975
WBGT
B
A
Projected WBGT in South-East Asia, afternoon, March
In shade 1975
WBGT
B
A
In sun 1975
Projected WBGT in South-East Asia, afternoon, March
In shade 1975
In shade 2050
WBGT
B
A
In sun 1975
Projected WBGT in South-East Asia, afternoon, March
In shade 1975
In shade 2050
WBGT
B
A
In sun 1975
In sun 2050
Modeling time trend of loss of work capacity
and productivity, South-East Asia
35
30
25
20
A = 1975
B = 2030
C = 2050
15
10
5
0
South-East Asia,
heavy outdoors
South-East Asia,
moderate outdoors
South-East Asia,
heavy indoors
South-East Asia,
moderate indoors
Local population density as a “risk factor” in Risk
Assessment; Population per grid cell, 2000; 4 age groups
Population per grid cell, 2000, 2030, 2050; all ages
Loss of work capacity as percent of available daylight working hours.
Differences between % in 2050 and 1975 depending on climate estimates
for 2050 (3 models and average); Heavy labour in the Sun, outdoors.
2050
2050
2050
B, 2050
B-A
BCM
EGMAM
IPCM
Average
Difference
3.65
6.26
7.21
8.45
7.31
3.65
15.37
22.50
24.80
27.10
24.80
9.43
17.41
27.17
28.54
31.19
28.97
11.56
4.88
8.54
9.08
10.39
9.34
4.46
1.80
3.56
3.90
4.23
3.90
2.10
15.67
25.91
27.20
29.64
27.59
11.91
Year
Model 
Region:
3 Asia, East
A, 1975
4 Asia, South
5 Asia, South
East
12 Lat-America,
Central
15 North
America
21 Africa, West
North America, A1975 / B 2050:
moderate labour in sun: 0.8 / 1.88
heavy labour in shade or indoors: 0.29 / 0.95
New economic estimates
 Dell, Jones and Olken, 2012:
1 oC temp increase leads to 1.3% reduction of annual
GDP growth
 Martin, Muuls, Ward, 2011: sensitivity of UK
manufacturing firms to extreme weather events; heat
wave years reduce economic performance
 DARA report Climate Vulnerability Monitor: 2 – 3%
reduction of annual GDP (in 2010) in low and middle
income tropical countries due to heat impacts on
labor productivity … release 26 Sept, 2012

Check: www.daraint.org
The economic impact of work time loss on income
trends: No loss = 4% growth/year, A = 1% loss, B = 2% loss
7000.0
6000.0
5000.0
4000.0
Income, no loss
Income, with loss A
Income, with loss B
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
Estimated cost of climate change, million US$
(DARA, 2012), Thailand in 2010 and 2030
Hazard
2010
2030
Drought
40
200
100
1,000
-5
-35
Biodiversity
350
2,500
Desertification
-80
-650
Heating and cooling
200
3,000
15,000
150,000
Sea-level rise
1,500
6,750
Water access
-300
-2,250
16.670
159,350
Floods and landslides
Storms
Labor Productivity
TOTAL
ClimateCHIP = Climate Change Health
Impact & Prevention profiles
http://www.climatechip.org/
-- still under development --
Climate CHIP content
Climate CHIP Introduction
Overview of climate conditions causing heat
stress in a country – graphics, maps
Potential health effects
Risk factors
Preventive policies and actions
Health impact assessments
Conclusions and recommendations
References
 links to conditions in specific grid cells
(0.5 x 0.5 degrees, or 50 x 50 km)
ClimateCHIP “Your Area” analysis
 When the name of a place is entered, the map immediately goes to
that grid cell and highlights it in pink. Then the available climate data
and health risks for different years or months can be displayed:
Trend and seasonal analysis; Delhi Tmax
Mapping of grid data: average Tmax in 1995; 4 months
Modeled Tmax in 2050; 4 months
Average WBGTmax in 1995; 4 months
Modeled WBGTmax in 2050; 4 months
Lost work capacity; Work in shade, 1995
Lost work capacity; Work in sun, 1995
Research needs and ongoing efforts in Hothaps
 Quantify the impacts of climate conditions on workplace
heat exposures and related health, productivity and
economic effects
 Identify and test heat prevention methods;
 Develop health impact assessment methods linked to
climate modeling to estimates future health, productivity
and economic impacts.
 Current field study sites: Nicaragua, Costa Rica, South
Africa, Ghana, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos,
Vietnam, China, Australia, New Zealand
 New research initiatives will be welcomed
FOCUS ON EVIDENCE FOR PREVENTION
Main aims of ongoing global program, Hothaps:
(High Occupational Temperature Health and Productivity Suppression)
1. Accumulate and publish new evidence leading to
mitigation of climate change …. Applications of Health
Impact Assessment
2. Increase awareness of occupational health and safety
program needs …… promote common aspects of OSH
3. Influence architects and planners so that future work
places are designed to reduce heat stress
4. Make link to “green economy”, sustainability policies, etc.
…… and find new partners for OSH
5. Encourage mitigation of climate change, based on health
and economic loss estimates
Email to HOTHAPS: kjellstromt @ yahoo.com
Google: “kjellstrom climate” or “ClimateCHIP.org”
for all reports on Hothaps
Now let’s think of some discussion points:
Discussion topics:
Climate condition data: how to get most
accurate estimates of current and future
situations ….. ???
Health and productivity loss estimates for Risk
Assessment: how to develop calculation
methods that fit the situation in Thailand ……
???
Engaging with other sectors: how to create true
cooperative analysis with all economic sectors
…. ???