Transcript RESPONSIBILITY OF PUBLIC HEALTH SECTOR ON RISK

RESPONSIBILITY OF PUBLIC HEALTH SECTOR ON RISK
ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Prof. Tord Kjellstrom
Centre for Global Health Research
University of Umea, Sweden
and
*National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health
The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
MoPH seminar, Nr 2, Bangkok, 15 November 2013
The climate change and health panorama
 Climate change has created new interest in climate
conditions and health --- not just change is important, but
the current conditions
 Mitigation reduces extent of ongoing climate change
 Adaptation reduces impacts on human society and health
from climate change we can’t avoid
 Elderly and children are usually listed as vulnerable groups
for climate change, but working age people are also
vulnerable, and their health and well-being affects family
health and community health ….. the links are important
 Health Impact and Risk Assessments are an essential
component of effective prevention
Projected WBGT in South-East Asia, afternoon, March
In shade 1975
In shade 2050
WBGT
B
A
In sun 1975
In sun 2050
Climate change and health in DPSEEA framework
Climate change and health in DPSEEA framework
Climate change will reduce growth in farm
production in many poor countries and regions
Modelled % change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080
NA
LESS
< - 25%
-15 to -5%
0 to 5%
MORE
> + 25%
Source: Cline WR, 2007: Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington, D.C.:
Center for Global Development, Peterson Institute for International Economics (cited in von Braun J (IFPRI), 2007
Global Hunger Map, 2005-06
Sources: FAO 2005; WHO
2006; UNICEF 2005
Global Hunger Index
Most
Least
Mapping of grid data: average Tmax in 1995; 4 months
Average UTCImax in 1995; 4 months
Other examples related to environmental change
and social issues, including mental stress
1. Increased suicides among farmers due to drought and agricultural
production failures
2. Reduced ice coverage in Arctic areas affecting traditional working life
(fishing, hunting) and creating injury and mental health risks
3. Lack of work, loss of income, in forestry when ground is too soft (not
ice hard) for machinery use
4. Longer distances to walk and other difficulties in daily household
tasks, because climate change has reduced accessibility of certain
basic needs
5. Impact of heat on pregnant women and newborn children
6. Increasing heat reducing childrens’ interest in play and physical
activities outdoors ….. potentially increasing obesity risks
Public Health Sector focus
Health Services (“sick services”)
Preventive health programs – needs other
sectors
Disease and Injury focus (ICD codes):
– Early childhood diseases, maternity issues,
infectious diseases, vector-borne diseases,
injuries, respiratory – heart – kidney etc diseases,
cancer, special occupational diseases, other …..
Environmental factors:
– Risk Assessment and Environmental Health Impact
Assessment
Climate change and health in DPSEEA framework
Role of Risk Assessment in Prevention
 Identify climate factors that can affect health
 Current climate situation; Urban Heat Island; analysis
linked to cause effect pathways and timing
 Potential future climate situation
 Population size and change in the future
 Population activities change in the future (e.g. work, active
transport, play)
 Calculate likely impacts for different groups – health
equity, environmental justice
 Identify short-term and long-term prevention approaches
and promote the best ones
 Cooperate with technical expertise to find environmentally
friendly cooling and protection systems
Moving forward in Thailand ……..
1. Create links between different sectors: raising awareness
2. Focus on different age groups and consider indirect
effects on health and well-being for the family and
community: broad Health Impact and Risk Assessment
3. Establish policies and actions for future homes and
workplaces …. building design to reduce air conditioning
need, urban design (trees for shading, water feature for
cooling, etc)
4. Test different approaches in the Thailand context and
make epidemiological assessments of prevention and
adaptation methods
5. Role of health sector: ….. To discuss …..
Discussion points:
Role of health sector: ???
– HAZARDS OF CONCERN: make list for different
parts of Thailand
–
–
–
–
–
–
Risk Assessment; cooperate with other sectors
warning systems,
emergency preparedness,
Specific technical cooling/protection systems
health service rapid response teams,
expertise and advocacy for future development
plans,
– links to other public health issues (such as
obesity prevention)
The End.
Thank you
Email to HOTHAPS:
kjellstromt @ yahoo.com
Google: “kjellstrom climate”
for all reports on HOTHAPS
… and check www.ClimateCHIP.org