Transcript Food Security, Climate Change and Biofuels

Food Security, Climate Change and Biofuels
Madhu Khanna
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Food Security, Energy and the Environment: Growing Demands
• Global demand for crop calories expected to increase by 100% and for crop protein increase by
110% by 2050 (Tilman et al., 2011)
• Yield trends for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean are insufficient to double global production
by 2050 without bringing in more land into crop production.
Corn
Cotton
3,000
By 2030…
• Climate change is anticipated to increase
global temperature and reduce crop
yields
Wheat
Rice
Soybeans
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
+28%
+102%
+125%
+40%
500
• Growing problem of soil erosion,
nitrate pollution
1.4 B
MORE
PEOPLE
2X
Global
GDP
Source: IHS Global Insights, Agriculture
30%
INCREASE
IN MEAT
CONSUMPT
ION
+76%
0
2000 2010 2015 2020 2030
GLOBAL GRAIN
DEMAND (MMT)
Energy Consumption: To double by 2050
• Global demand for energy expected to double by 2050
• Creating an imperative for alternative low carbon and renewable energy sources
• 45% of corn production in the US is being diverted to corn ethanol
• Concerns about competition for land and impact on food prices and effects on water quality
Corn use for Ethanol in US
My Research Interests
• Sustainable agricultural production: Increasing yields and profitability without contributing to
agricultural pollution
• Role of technologies such as precision farming
• Effect of climate change on crop yields and acreage
• Recognizing that observed yields are also affected by behavioral factors
• Application to corn and soybean production in the US
• Food security and energy security: Trade-offs and complementarities between food and fuel
production
Measuring the Intensive and Extensive Margin
Impacts of Climate and Prices
• Observed yield in a region (county) is an average over many farmers –
and depends on
• Climate
• Acreage cultivated
• Crop rotations
• Management practices
• Farm policy
High quality
cropland
Acreage
Marginal/Idle
Corn
Soybeans
prices
C
• Average crop yield affected by climate conditions, price expectations and policy
• Ignoring these other effects can lead to omitted variable bias
• Crop price effects positive or negative: improve management practices but bring in marginal land
• Fertilizer price effects can be positive or negative: reduce fertilizer use but increase land
• Policy effects can also be positive or negative: changes in price support and planting flexibility
• Crop acreage likely to be negatively affected by climate and positively by crop price
Our study
• Use 30 years of historical county specific data on crop yields, prices and climate
variables to:
• Examine the impact of climate change on supply of corn and soybeans by
considering effects at the intensive and extensive margin
• Assess the responsiveness of yield and crop acreage to crop prices
• Simulate the medium term and long term impact of climate change on crop
production
Implications
• Potential for adaptation to climate effects in response to rising crop prices
• Potential for effect of biofuel induced crop prices increases to be mitigated by
increased yields
Key Findings :Effect of Climate Variables on Yield
Corn
RCP2.6 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP8.5
Medium Long Medium Long Medium Long Medium Long
term
term
term
term
term
term
term
term
RCP2.6 RCP2.6 RCP4.5
Medium Long Medium
term
term
term
0
0
-5
-5
Soybeans
RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP6.0
Long
term
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
Preci.
-25
Preci.
-30
-30
Temp. Dev.
-35
Temp. Dev.
-40
Overheat degree days
-40
Long
term
-10
-10
-35
Medium
term
RCP8.5 RCP8.5
Medium Long
term
term
Overheat degree days
GDD
-45
Decomposed Climate Effect on Corn Yield
-45
-50
GDD
Decomposed Climate Effect on Soybean Yield
Miao, Khanna, Huang, 2014
Other Findings
• Corn yields are responsive to corn price
• 29% of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price
due to yield enhancement at the intensive margin while 71% is due to
acreage expansion.
• Impact of climate change on decrease in corn acreage relatively small
0.6-1.3%
Effect of climate change
on corn supply 2050-2100
Legend
Legend
20 --- -10
-10
-20
-10
20
-10
00
-10 --- 0
-10
40 --- -30
-30
-30
-40
40
30 --- -20
-20
-30
-20
30
60 --- -50
-50
-60
-50
60
50 --- -40
-40
-40
-50
50
100
-80
-80
100
00 --- -80
80 -----60
-60
-80
-60
-80
60
80
prod_impa_he2670
prod_impa_he2650
prod_impa_he8550
prod_impa_he8570
Food and Fuel: Not all biofuels are the same
Biofuel Yield: Gallons per Acre
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Corn ethanol
Sugarcane
Wheat straw Stover ethanol Switchgrass
ethanol
ethanol
Miscanthus
ethanol
Energy Cane
Average Carbon Intensity of Alternative Fuels
g CO2/MJ
100
75
50
25
0
Miscanthus
Energy Cane
Switchgrass
Corn stover
Wheat straw
Sugarcane
ethanol
Corn ethanol
Gasoline
-25
Key questions
• What are the determinants of the mix of biofuels produced?
• How much land will be converted from food/feed crops to biofuels?
• Which type of land will be converted for biofuel crop production?
• What will be the implications for food/feed crop prices?
Research Issues
• Potential for energy crops to be grown productively on low quality land;
correlation of energy crop yields with those of conventional crops:
implications for land allocation
• Under perfect certainty, low discount rates and risk neutrality we examine
• Breakeven price of energy crops lower on low quality land
• Effect of biofuel and climate policies on the mix of biofuels produced
• Effect on land use and food crop prices depends on costs of energy crops and
availability of marginal land
• Effects of risk aversion, high discount rates, credit constraints on potential
location and land types for energy crop production
Alternative Fuel Standards
Renewable Fuel Standard
36 B gallons by 2022
Biofuel categories based on GHG
intensity
At least 16 B gallons of cellulosic biofuels
Max. cap of 15 B gallons of corn ethanol
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Set a standard for reducing GHG
intensity of transportation fuel relative
to a baseline
Mix of Biofuels Under Alternative Policies that Achieve the Same
GHG Reduction as the RFS (2007-2030)
Sugarcane
Ethanol
Cellulosic 7%
Ethanol
(Energy
Crops)
12%
Cellulosic
Ethanol
(Crop
Residues)
17%
Biodiesel
3%
RFS
Corn
Ethanol
61%
RFS Targets
Chen, Huang, Khanna and Onal, 2014
Biodiesel
1%
Sugarcane
Ethanol
6%
Biomass
Diesel
2%
Corn
Ethanol
Cellulosic
LCFS 16%
Ethanol
Cellulosic
Ethanol
(Energy
Crops)
71%
(Crop
Residues)
4%
Low Carbon Fuel
Standard
Food vs Fuel
% Change in Crop Prices in
2030 Relative to No-Biofuel
Policy
Spatial Distribution of Biomass
RFS
Energy Crops
Crop Residues
LCFS
Effect of risk aversion, high discount rates, credit constraints
and subsidies on acreage allocated to miscanthus
(b)
(a)
(c)
Legend
Counties
total_land
(0, 100]
(100, 500]
(500, 1000]
Legend
(1000, 2000]
(2000, 3000]
(3000, 5000]
> 5000
Legend
> 1500
(1000, 1500]
> 1500
(1000, 1500]
(500, 1000]
(0, 500]
No change
(-500, 0)
Acres
(-1000, -500]
Legend of Map (c)
total_land_change
-1500, -1000]
(500, 1000]
Legend
<= -1500
> 5000
(3000, 5000]
(2000, 3000]
(1000, 2000]
(500, 1000]
(100, 500]
(0, 100]
total_land
Legend of Maps (a) and (b)
(0, 500]
No change
(-500, 0)
(-1000, -500]
(-1500, -1000]
<= -1500
total_land_change
Miao and Khanna, 2015)
Summary and Future Work
• Climate change and increasing production of biofuels (even cellulosic
biofuels) pose a threat to food/feed production
• Potential for adaptation to climate change in response to higher crop prices
• Biofuel impacts on food/feed production are largely policy induced.
• Potential to design policies to mitigate unintended adverse impacts
• More research needed: Impact of climate change and induced variability in
yields together with growing global production of biofuels on land use and
food/feed production