Transcript José Goldemberg

IANAS Workshop
“Toward a Sustainable Energy Future”
30-31 October, 2008
Prof. José Goldemberg
University of São Paulo
Brazil
CONCLUSIONS
1. Meeting the basic energy needs of the poorest people on
this planet is a moral and social imperative that can and
must be pursued in concert with sustainability objectives.
2. Concerted efforts must be made to improve energy
efficiency and reduce the carbon intensity of the world
economy.
3. Technologies for capturing and sequestering carbon from
fossil fuels, particularly coal, can play a major role in the
cost-effective management of global carbon dioxide
emissions.
4. Competition for oil and natural gas supplies has the
potential to become a source of growing geopolitical
tension and economic vulnerability for many nations in
the decades ahead.
5. As a low-carbon resource, nuclear power can continue to
make a significant contribution to the world’s energy
portfolio in the future, but only if major concerns related
to capital cost, safety and weapons proliferation are
addressed.
6. Renewable energy in its many forms offers immense
opportunities for technological progress and innovation.
7. Biofuels hold great promise for simultaneously
addressing climate-change and energy security
concerns.
8. The development of cost-effective energy storage
technologies, new energy carriers and improved
transmission infrastructure could substantially reduce
cost and expand the contribution from a variety of energy
supply options.
9. The S&T community – together with the general public –
has a critical role to play in advancing sustainable
energy solutions and must be effectively engaged.
“LEAPFROGGING”
It is in the best economic and societal interest of developing
countries to “leapfrog” past the wasteful energy trajectory
followed by today’s industrialized countries. Mechanisms
must be introduced that encourage and assist these countries
in the introduction of efficient and environmentally friendly
energy technologies as soon as possible.
8
45000
40000
US
Ireland
Norway
35000
Iceland
Switzerland
UK
Australia
30000
GDP PPP per capita (US$, 2004)
Finland
Canada
Sweden
Spain
25000
Israel
United Arab Emirates
Portugal
20000
Kwait
Qatar
15000
Saudi Arabia
10000
Russian Federation
Brazil
5000
China
India
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Electricity consumption per capita.year (kWh, 2003)
25000
30000
45000
40000
USA
Ireland
35000
Norway
Switzerland
GDP PPP per capita (US$, 2004)
UK
Australia
Kwait
30000
Finland
Canada
Iceland
Sweden
Spain
25000
Israel
20000
New Zealand
Portugal
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Kwait
Qatar
15000
Saudi Arabia
10000
Russian Federation
Brazil
5000
China
India
0
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Electricity consumption per capita.year (kWh, 2003)
25,000
30,000
Refrigerator energy use in the United
States over time
Source: David Goldstein, Natural Resources Defense Council
11
Energy savings in the OECD
(1973 – 1988)
12
Efficiency of coal-fired power production
Source: Graus and Worrell, 2006.
13
Schematic illustration of a sedimentary basin with
a number of geological sequestration options
Source: IPCC, 2005
14
Segurança de Abastecimento
Fluxos de petróleo
15
Modern renewables projections for
2010 and 2020
Note: Projections of modern renewables (including small hydro, excluding large) based
on 11.5 percent growth per year, over the period 2001-2005.
Sources: UNDP, UNDESA, and WEC, 2000 and 2004; REN21, 2006; And IEA, 2006
20
Land Use for Ethanol (2006)
BRAZIL
Ethanol production from sugarcane
(billion litres/year)
Production
17.8
To replace 10% total gasoline
consumption*
189
To replace 10% total
petroleum consumption*
746
Sugarcane agricultural area in
the world
----
Agricultural area (million ha)
(million bbl/day)
Sugarcane to
ethanol
Sugarcane
(total)
0.31
2.9
5
31
---
123
---
---
20
3.3
13
---UNITED STATES
Ethanol production from corn
(billion litres/year)
Production
Corn agricultural area in the
world
18.4
---
Agricultural area (million ha)
(million bbl/day)
Corn to ethanol
Corn (total)
0.32
5.1
29
---
---
144
World’s total agricultural area: 1,228 million hectares
*World petroleum consumption (2005): 4,478 billion litres/year
* World gasoline consumption (2005): 1,292 billion litres/year
energy output/input ratio (from fossil fuels)
Energy balance of alcohol production
from different feedstocks
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Sugarcane
Sugar beet
Wheat straw
Corn
Wood
ethanol feedstock
Sources: (Macedo et alii, 2004; UK DTI, 2003 and USDA, 1995)
22