Transcript Sugar Cane Resources for Economic Development: a Case

Global and Regional Bio-ethanol Markets
sugarcane and sweet sorghum in southern Africa
AU/UNIDO/Brazil Seminar
Sustainable Biofuels Development in Africa:
Opportunities and Challenges
31 July 2007
Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Energy and Climate
Stockholm Environment Institute
Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA)
www.carensa.net
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Research Directorate-General
Overview of Presentation
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Energy-Environment-Development Driving Forces
North-South-South collaboration & International Trade
SSA has highest bioenergy potential among world regions
Productive Biofuel crops: sugarcane and sweet sorghum
GHG emissions
Employment generation
Global market shares
Focus on southern Africa (SADC)
Capacity of existing factories: reaching economies-of-scale
Geographic Information Systems Analysis – potential
Scenarios for future production and blending
Export potential
CARENSA: an International Network/Partnership
Multi-product, multi-sector strategies
to promote sustainable development
and enhance global competitiveness
Sustainable
Development
Strategies
Cogeneration
Environmental and
Social Impacts
Techno-economic
options
Bioservices
Biofuels
Global
Competitiveness
Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for bioenergy development and North-South-South Collaboration
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Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods
Relieving resource pressures and stresses
Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration
Energy security: local – regional – global
Rural health issues - indoor air
Urban health issues – lead, air quality
future competitiveness of agro-industries
Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits
Developing countries looking for foreign investment through
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market
Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification
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Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios
111
0
111
137
14
68
32 40
1 2
4
315
North America
253
32 39
1 8 14 17
Near East &
North Africa
331
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
100
125
10
21
0 0 0 0
East Asia
410
14
21
21
24
Japan
Ameri
South Asia
149
41
Caribean &
Latin America
CIS &
Baltic States
E.Europe
178
46
221
178
2
W.Europe
34
136
sub-Saharan
Africa
100
60
15
125
Oceania
America
Potential in Oceania
is 4-6 times projected
primary energy use
Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski – March 2004
A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources
for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109.
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Comparison of biofuel yields
Crop yield
(t/ha)
Biofuel
yield
(litre/ha)
Energy
yield
(GJ/ha)
100
7500
157.5
70
3000
105.0
Sweet
sorghum
60
4200
88.2
Maize
7
2500
52.5
Crop
Seed yield
(t/ha)
Sugarcane
(juice)
Palm oil
9800
Jatropha
740
700
24.5
Soybean
480
500
17.5
GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions
from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
-120%
Ethanol
Ethanol
Ethanol
from grains, from sugar from sugar
US/EU
beets, EU cane, Brazil
Ethanol
from
cellulosic
feedstocks
Biodiesel
from
rapeseed,
EU
Employment Generation and
Sustainable Livelihoods
(calculations are for Brazil)
Cost of creating various jobs by industry type (1000 USD)
Jobs Created per equivalent energy output (Oil = 1)
Chemical
Ethanol
152
Metallurgy
Oil
1
Capital goods
Hydroelectric
3
Coal
4
0
Consumer
goods
Ethanol
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
Source: Goldemberg, Jose (2002)
150
200
250
The case of Sugar Cane Resources
Sugar Cane
Sugar/solids
Raw Sugar
Refined Sugar
Fertilizers
Industrial Uses
Molasses/juice
Crop Residues
Industrial Uses
Steam & Electricity
Commercial Products
Fuel Briquettes
Ethanol
Agricultural Products
Stillage
Fertilizer
Methane
Industrial Products
Shares of global sugarcane production, 2004
N&C America
13%
SADC
3%
Brazil
29%
ASEAN
10%
Pacific
4%
Other SA
10%
Other Asia
10%
India
21%
Ethanol Production
Total Ethanol production by country or region (billion litres)
Global
Global
Annual
Share,
Share, Average
2000
2005
change
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Brazil
10.6 11.5 12.6 14.7 14.7 16.1
33%
34%
8.6%
U.S.A.
7.6
8.1
9.6 12.1 14.3 16.2
24%
34%
16.4%
other Americas
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
3%
2%
0.8%
EU
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.7
8%
6%
2.5%
other Europé
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
12%
9%
2.6%
Africa
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
2%
1%
3.6%
China
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.7
3.8
9%
8%
5.1%
India
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.7
5%
4%
-0.2%
other Asia
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.3
4%
3%
0.8%
World
31.7 33.7 36.5 41.5 43.6 47.6
8.5%
NOTE: includes both bio-ethanol and synthetic ethanol
NOTE: other Europé includes Russia and republics; other Asia includes Pacific/Oceania
Source: F.O.Licht's, 2006.
Global Scenarios in 2030 for Ethanol blending
Ethanol Production (billion litres)
Ethanol Production in 2030 under different scenarios
(ONLY from sugar cane and sweet sorghum)
350
300
Oceania
250
N&C America
Other SA
200
Brazil
Other Asia
150
India
ASEAN
100
Africa
50
0
Ref
E1
E2
E3
E4
**10% gasoline + 3% diesel of IEA 2030 Projection = 276 bl
**Scenario E4 exceeds this projected blending market!!
Potential Trade Balances (in the absence of major trade
barriers) for fuel ethanol in the medium-term (2025-2030)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Brazil: net exporter
U.S.: net importer
Other N & S America: self-sufficient
China: net importer
India: self-sufficient
SE Asia: net exporter
EU: net importer
Western Africa: self-sufficient
Southern and Eastern Africa: net exporter
Import Duties on Ethanol are High in
Many IEA Countries
US
Canada
EU
Japan
Australia
NZ
Brazil
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
US $ per litre
Note: No duties in Japan and New Zealand
$0.30
Southern African Development Community
(SADC)
Land Use Summary for SADC and
other selected countries/regions
Country/Region
Total
Land
Area
Forest Area
UNITS:
Total SADC
Brazil
China
India
United States
EU-15
Million ha
Million
ha
964
846
933
297
916
313
368
544
163
64
226
116
share of
total
land
area
38%
64%
18%
22%
25%
37%
Agricultural Areas
Million
ha
433
264
555
181
409
140
share of
total
land
area
45%
31%
59%
61%
45%
45%
Cultivated Area
Million
ha
53
67
155
170
176
85
share of
total
land
area
5,5%
7,9%
16,6%
57,1%
19,2%
27,0%
Shares of SADC sugarcane production
Swaziland
10%
Mauritius
11%
Zimbabwe
10%
Malawi
5%
Others
6%
Zambia
4%
Tanzania
4%
Madagascar
5%
South Africa
45%
l
W
or
ld
In
di
a
Br
az
i
M
al
aw
i
M
au
r it
iu
So
s
ut
h
Af
r ic
a
Ta
nz
an
ia
Za
m
bi
a
Zi
m
ba
bw
SA
e
DC
to
ta
l
Au
st
ra
lia
Tonnes cane per hectare in 2004
High crop productivity in some SADC countries
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Characteristics of existing sugar factories
and potential ethanol supply
Ethanol Production (Million litres)
from
Factory characteristics and/or feedstock supply
Number
of
factories
Avg.
Capacity
tc/hr
> 2 mtc/year
4
469
1-2 mtc/year
16
< 1 mtc/year
Total
Size
Category
Total
prod.
ktc/yr
Avg. ann.
Prod.
ktc/yr
Cmolasses
A/B
molasses
9244
2311
83
185
693
305
23064
1538
208
461
1730
20
167
8852
521
80
177
664
40
258
41159
1143
370
823
3087
Cane
juice
Additional cane as feedstock
40085
361
802
3006
Total potential supply
81244
731
1625
6093
512
1137
4265
Gasoline Equivalent
Existing Factories: Ethanol Surpluses/deficits with Production from
C-molasses only and E5 Ethanol Demand (million litres)
Legend
SLCR Pixels
Annual Rainfall <800mm
Annual Rainfall >800mm
Rainfall and Areas
suitable for
sugarcane in
Malawi,
Mozambique,
Tanzania, and
Zambia
Source: UKwZN
2005, South Africa
0
-
200
400
Kilometres
Figure 5:12: SLCR Pixels and Annual Rainfall
600
Legend
SLCR Areas
International Areas
National Areas (No Categories)
National Areas (IUCN Categorised)
Areas suitable and
available for
sugarcane in
Malawi,
Mozambique,
Tanzania, and
Zambia
Source: UKwZN
2005, South Africa
0
-
200
400
Kilometres
Figure 5.3: Distribution of Protected Areas and SLCR Pixels
600
Land suitability for
high input levels:
Sweet Sorghum
production in Africa
Source: FAO
Land suitability for sweet sorghum
Country
Malawi
Mozambique
South Africa
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Suitable Share
Total land
(1000 ha) Low-inputs High-inputs
26%
11%
9408
28%
16%
78409
1%
0%
121447
13%
4%
88359
34%
8%
74339
3%
0%
38685
Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane
9000
8000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
Million litres
7000
Other SADC
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Tanzania
Swaziland
South Africa
Mozambique
Malawi
Scenarios for SADC ethanol supply and demand
Ethanol production in SADC from existing cane,
new cane, and sweet sorghum
Scenarios for internal SADC and export
market demand
35000
30000
35000
25000
30000
25000
20000
20000
15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0
2005
cane, existing areas
cane, new areas
sweet sorghum
2010
2015
SADC demand
2020
export market
2025
Potential supply for export (million litres)
YEAR
Scenarios for ethanol
production in SADC
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Average
Annual
Increase
939
6443
13787
23650
36996
20,16%
203
1%
2475
10%
4315
15%
6155
20%
8195
25%
20,30%
Remaining allocation for
export market
736
3968
9472
17495
28801
20,12%
relative to demand in other
regions (volume basis)
China
Japan
United States
EU15
1%
1%
0%
0%
4%
7%
1%
2%
9%
16%
2%
6%
15%
29%
3%
10%
21%
48%
4%
16%
SADC petrol demand projections (energy basis)
assumed % ethanol:
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005
Area required for cane and sweet sorghum (kha)
Country/Year
Average
Annual
Change
2010
2025
Malawi
89
302
9%
Mozambique
859
3484
10%
South Africa
311
285
-1%
Swaziland
43
42
0%
Tanzania
212
802
10%
Zambia
385
1555
10%
Zimbabwe
47
60
2%
Other SADC
208
282
3%
SADC total
2155
6813
9%
Some concluding thoughts
• Significant potential for global biofuels expansion in SADC and
elsewhere to meet both development and environment goals
• Bio-ethanol export potential from southern Africa is significant
• Large scale via exports may be needed to be competitive
• North-South-South cooperation needed to develop market
• Transition from sugar support schemes to biofuels trade
• Exploit SSA comparative advantage
• Biofuels and other bio-commodities are value-added products
• Amount of land needed is small when productive crops such as
sugarcane and sweet sorghum are used
• Subsidies for inefficient biofuels (e.g. corn in U.S.) are harmful
to global economy AND the environment
• Need more detailed economic analysis of production and trade
• Assessment of impacts on food supply & food security needed
Thanks to:
• AU and UNIDO for opportunity to attend this seminar
• EC and Sida - for financial support to CARENSA
• Our International Partners – for their hard work
For more info: www.carensa.net
CEEEZ
Centre for
Energy, Environment and
Engineering Zambia Limited
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Research Directorate-General