Transcript testbg

The Ocean’s Role
in Climate Change
Responding to the Kyoto Protocol
Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF)
Initiatives
• Reduce greenhouse
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gas emissions.
Reduce scientific
uncertainties, oceans
are a major factor.
Precautions where
appropriate.
Assess adaptation
strategies.
Global Warming Has Begun
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10 warmest years within the
last 160 years have just
recently occurred.
1997 used to be the warmest
over this timeframe, 1998 was
significantly warmer.
losses from weather related
disasters are escalating, to $75
billion (US) in 1998.
IPCC suggests “a discernable
human influence on global
climate”.
Key Issues
• Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and
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people are likely to be severe
Oceans are a critical part of the climate system
(ocean circulation, greenhouse gases)
Variations in ocean climate affect all Canadians
The oceans role in the climate
system must be better monitored
and understood to reduce
uncertainties in climate forecasts
Climate Change Impacts
• Marine Environment
– sea levels, sea ice
– ocean temperature
Sea Ice
circulation, etc.
Fresh Water
Species
Icebergs
Fish Limit
Forest
Fires
Groundfish
Drought
New Species
Lake Levels
Invertebrates
Storms
– fisheries species and
distributions
– coastal communities
• Land Environment
– increased drought,
floods, forest fires
– changed hydrology
affecting energy,
transportation, tourism
Oceans are the Flywheel of the
Climate System
• Oceans cover 71% of the
OCEAN
ATMOSPHERE
SPACE
Earth’s surface.
• The oceans are the
CO2
Heat
system’s flywheel, retaining
and moving vast amounts of
heat.
Oceans remove up to 1/3
of the CO2 produced by
burning fossil fuels
Oceans, atmosphere, land
and snow & ice form the
climate system.
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71% of Earth’s Surface
El Niño shows how Ocean
Changes affect Canadian Climate
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El Niño results in:
– warmer coastal BC waters.
– cooler north Atlantic waters.
– deflected jet stream, which in
turn affects weather all
across Canada.
Map shows 1997/98 fully
developed El Niño.
Changes are not uniform
across Canada.
Average Jet Stream
El Niño Year Jet Stream
Projected Effect of Global Warming on Sockeye Salmon
• Scenario suggests that ocean
habitat of sockeye may not even
include any of the Pacific Ocean.
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Lowest red line is the
1995 southern limit of sockeye
salmon.
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Highest red line shows the
projected southern limit of
sockeye salmon by 2094 when
greenhouse gases will have more
than doubled.
Sudden Climate Shifts
• The ocean conveyor presently heats the North Atlantic.
• Ice cores reveal past rapid temperature shifts.
• Must reduce scientific uncertainties of climate
“surprises”, e.g. ocean conveyor change or shutdown.
Ocean Climate
We are not doing enough
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Inadequate Monitoring
– sections (sampling lines)
– stations (sampling points)
– sea level
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Minimal Research Program
– circulation (heat engine)
– CO2 (oceanic uptake)
– impacts assessment
(aquatic resources)
Benefits of Ocean Monitoring
and Climate Forecasts
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Economic impacts: Seasonal Forecasting
– energy consumers, mariners, farmers
Economic decisions: Infrastructure Design
– buildings, roads, bridges (e.g. Confederation Bridge
design for climate change), coastal facilities
Economic Decisions: Adaptation Strategies
– alternative resource development (fishers, foresters,
farmers)
Health and Safety of Canadians
– health risk assessment (disease)
– flood and drought seasonal predictions
National Implementation Strategy
Oceans Component
• enhanced ocean observations
• refine ocean components of
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coupled ocean/atmosphere
circulation models
strengthen regional climate
modeling
develop operational ocean
forecasts
undertake impact
studies - fisheries, etc.
Summary
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Projected Summer Sockeye
Salmon Distribution by 2060
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2xCO2
Normal
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Living marine resources will be
heavily impacted by climate change.
Improved climate prediction will be
impossible without better:
– ocean measurements and
characterization.
– understanding ocean/atmosphere
interactions and feedbacks.
Improved climate prediction is
essential to support policy decisions.
Ocean climate needed as part of a
National Implementation Strategy