Transcript Mitigation
Food Security and Climate Change Mitigation Peter Holmgren, FAO 3 November 2009 On status of UNFCCC negotiations • Agriculture Adaptation: Few references in text • Agriculture Mitigation: Contact Group in Bangkok to produce text -> non-paper. • Text on REDD has progressed well. A Copenhagen outcome is likely. • It is likely that references to agriculture in a Copenhagen outcome will be limited. • A work programme on agriculture is proposed for postCopenhagen. • References to food security, in the overarching section entitled a “Shared vision” may be retained. Two Goals of Our Time 1. Food Security – – – 1 billion hungry Overall food production to increase 70% by 2050 Adaptation to Climate Change critical 2. Climate Change Mitigation – – – ”2 degree goal” requires major emission cuts Agriculture and Land use = 30% of emissions.. ..and needs to be part of the solution Two goals, one solution? • ”Sustainable agriculture, land use, forestry, fisheries and food production” • Can we address two goals with one approach? • We have to articulate more clearly that there are actions with synergies and actions with trade-offs Action Increase productivity (yields per area) under environmental constraints (sustainable, low-C land management) Can help Food Security Can help meet CC mitigation goal Yes (yes) Reduce expansion of agriculture and sustainable forest management Yes Effective water use Yes (yes) Reduce losses in / more efficient agricultural practises Yes Yes Reduce losses in food processing and handling Yes Yes Improve agricultural markets and incentives Yes Yes Carbon sequestration in vegetation and soil (yes) Yes Terrestrial System impact [GtC/yr] Carbon Capture / Balance NPP 60 Returns 59.1 Emissions today part of Annual storage 0.9 LUC Forestry 2.3 CH4 N2 O 1.8 4.1 = 30.9% of all emissions Mitigation potential (at 100 $/t) Forestry 2.3 Agriculture 1.1 3.4 Net impact today ~ 0.9 The Green Sectors can have a significant future positive impact! Reference levels: Total anthropogenic emissions = 13.4 Fossil fuel combustion = 7.6 On Mitigation options • Integrate into overall agriculture development – Dealing with Food security, Poverty – AND Mitigation • FAO report to be released shortly – Draft in Barcelona, Final in Copenhagen Options for Implementing Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries Post-Copenhagen Issues • Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) • Knowledge base – technical options across geography and agriculture systems – policy / finance options (short term vs. long-term) • Managing synergies and trade-offs – location and scale specific – changes to meet food security, changes to mitigate • How bring income/payments to local stakeholders? • Pilots are needed But solutions also depend on • demographic changes – population – urbanization • economic growth • structural changes in agriculture • consumption patterns Next Steps • Achieve greater recognition that agriculture can be part of the solution to climate change • Anchoring Agriculture in Copenhagen Outcome – and Climate Change in the World Food Summit • Secure adequate, predictable and sustainable financing Two Goals Food Security Climate Change Mitigation We must reach both.