Transcript Emerging research on Low Carbon Development in South Africa

Emerging research on Low Carbon
Development in South Africa
Kim Coetzee,
MAPS Programme researcher
(www.mapsprogramme.org)
Energy, Environment and Climate Change Group,
Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town
Outline
Snapshot of...
> Carbon/Energy challenges
> Development challenges
Policy developments in response to challenges
Current Research at the ERC
1.MA case studies - C & D special edition
2.PAMA paper findings
3.MA/NAMA/LCDS
SA snapshot: Development challenges
• 39% of the population live on less than 40 EUR per month
• 0.7 GINI co-efficient
• Housing-delivery backlog of over 2.1 million housing units (+/- 12.5-million
people)
• Growing social unrest mainly related to lack of services-delivery & wage
disputes
• Approximately 1/4 population is unemployed
NDP diagnostic
Crumbling
infrastructure
Divided
communities
Reducing
inequality
Poor education
outcomes
Resource
intensive
economy
Corruption
Uneven public
service performance
Eliminating
poverty
Spacial patterns that
marginalise the poor
High disease
burden
High
unemployment
Overview of Low Carbon Development Goals
Rennkamp, Britta. 2012. Sustainable Development Planning in South Africa: A Case of over-Strategizing? In Conference Paper of the 2012 Berlin Conference of the
Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change on "Evidence for Sustainable Development". 5-6 October 2012, Berlin, Germany.
SA snapshot: carbon/energy challenges
• Highest emissions in Africa
• Only 1.19% of global CO2 emissions, but
high energy intensity makes it 44th (/185) in
per capita emissions (CAIT 2011)
• Reliance on coal due to high energy
intensity of the economy, 20th in the world
(CAIT 2011)
• Coal provides 77% of primary energy
needs (Eskom 2011) including 93% of
electricity generation.
SA’s Draft Second National Communication
SA snapshot: Energy Challenge
So where does that leave us?
What is happening domestically?
> Government response
> ERC/MAPS research
How do domestic actions interact with the international?
Government Response:
Policy developments in the 'carbon space'
• Climate Change
• National Climate Change Response Strategy 2011 - DEA
• Development
• National Planning Commission (NPC) – "Low Carbon Economy"
• Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) - dti
• Energy
• Bi-annually reviewed Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – DoE
• RE ’re-bid’ announced in November 2012
• Energy Efficiency Strategy 2005 – currently under review
• Renewable Energy White Paper 2003 – 10, 000Gwh by 2013
National Climate Change Response:
flagship programmes.
• Public Works
• Water Conservation and Demand
Management
• Renewable Energy
• Energy Efficiency and Energy Demand
Management
• Transport
• Waste Management
• Carbon Capture and Sequestration
• Adaptation Research
Response: National Development Plan
• Not a policy; a "vision" that suggests links between policies
• Attempts to conceptualise a "bigger picture"; includes low-carbon
development as pillar of future economic trajectory
• Achieve the peak, plateau and decline trajectory for greenhouse
gas emissions, with the peak being reached around 2025
• By 2030, an economy-wide carbon price should be entrenched.
• Zero emission building standards by 2030.
• Absolute reductions in the total volume of waste disposed to landfill each year.
• At least 20 000MW of renewable energy should be contracted by 2030.
Current research at the ERC
1.MAPS MA case studies - C & D special edition
2.PAMA paper findings
3.MA/NAMA/LCDS
Current research on Mitigation Actions as part of
emerging research on LCDS
• Prefaced by the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) work from 2006-2008
• Technical Analysis of NAMAs at Cancun
• Possible NAMAs in South Africa, incremental costs, relative reductions and
sustainable development benefits
• Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios programme (MAPS)
• Mitigation action studies in Latin American countries
• SA case study on approach to mitigation actions highlighting existing “bottom up”
initiatives (Climate and Development journal)
• Recently completed paper on the interface of MAs, NAMAs and LCDS (Climate
Policy journal)
1. SA Case study: findings
• What are barriers and challenges to implementation?
• Financing
• Counteracting vested interests
• Implementation capacity; incl. enabling legislative environment
• How can these be overcome with national / international support?
• Align with areas of underlying/existing implementation strength
• Procure a strong mandate
• Close alignment of SA MAs with core ‘interests’ of owner / implementer
• Use development co-benefits to strengthen mandate
• SAMAs with a clear need for international financing and clear MRV
characteristics lend themselves to international support
SAMA research meets SD research
Democracy
Uncertainty
Information
• Institutional setup bound
to the current
administration
• No legal basis which
would secure long term
mandate for SD plan
• No substantial resources
for implementation
• Compromised political
commitment
• political uncertainty
high
• Contradictory
development models
are employed
• Unclear impacts of
intervention vs. nonintervention
• Well quantified overall
goals
• Unclear how to reach
them
• Acknowledges sciences
basis in other plans
• Missing information on
how the three conflicts
unfold
• No indication of progress
reporting, monitoring and
evaluation
2. Poverty Alleviating Mitigation Actions
Introduced the concept of ‘poverty alleviating mitigation
actions’ PAMAs as a framework to rethink the way
programs and policies for reducing emissions are
structured in order to reduce both poverty and emissions.
i) The development goals need to be clear, time-delimited
and quantified;
ii) Actions to reach those goals need to be analysed
according to their feasibility and potential impacts on
both mitigation and poverty; and
iii) Addressing poverty
and inequality should be
considered at all stages
in the development of a
mitigation action
(identification, selection,
prioritisation,
implementation,
monitoring and
verification)
Categorisation of analysed MAs according to the
PAMA typology
Very few of the
MAs described in
the MAPS country
study reports are
perceived to be
embedded in
poverty alleviation
efforts.
Wlokas, H., Rennkamp, B., Torres, M., Winkler, H., Boyd, A., Tyler, E. and Fedorsky, C. (2012). Low carbon development
and poverty. MAPS Research paper. MAPS, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town.
3. MA/NAMA/LCDS papers
A series of two briefs and a journal article (Climate
Policy)
• Definitional “Mitigation Action, NAMAs and
LCDS: Building a common understanding”
• Interface between the concepts Low Carbon
Development Strategies, NAMAs and Mitigation
Actions
• Research paper > How the concepts of
‘Mitigation Actions’, ‘Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions’, and ‘Low Carbon
Development Strategies’ are understood in
developing countries
3. A bit more from the research paper
The three concepts are being interpreted in widely differing ways, with much scope for
clarity and conceptual elaboration.
Does not appear that pursuing clarity regarding MAs and LCDS at the international
level will do much to deepen mitigation action in developing countries, however, greater
operational and conceptual clarity of the NAMA concept appears urgent, and a
distinction between Pledge-NAMAs and Registry-NAMAs is proposed as a start.
The converse is true for the concept of NAMAs, for which a lack of conceptual and
operational clarity at the international level could be said to be hindering mitigation
action.
Strengthening the concepts currently being used in domestic policy processes, together
with clarity on how the key elements of action, strategies, co-benefits, development,
planning, implementation and ambition interact appears likely to facilitate a deepening
of mitigation action.
Thanks to GIGA for
the opportunity to
attend this dialogue
and to present our
work.
This was a presentation of a range
of work currently being undertaken
at the ERC under the auspices of
the MAPS Programme.
Researchers & staff of the
Energy Research Centre,
University of Cape Town.
I am part of an ad hoc grouping
of researchers who work in this
area namely:
Dr Britta Rennkamp, Holle
Wlokas, Emily Tyler, Anya Boyd,
Marta Torres-Gunfaus, Prof.
Harald Winkler.