Transcript PPT Slides -- January 20 - Peace and Conflict Studies

PACS 4500
Senior Seminar in
Peace and Conflict Studies
Guy Burgess
Co-Director
Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado
UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635
[email protected]
Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess
Class Activity Notes
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Sign-Up Sheet / PACS ID#
Martin Luther King
Obama
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-likely-to-make-economic-recovery-a-centerpiece-of-state-ofthe-union-address/2015/01/17/22ecec32-9cd6-11e4-a7ee-526210d665b4_story.html
Inequitable Inequality
Source: Non-partisan Congressional
Budget Office http://1.usa.gov/KMX1Ci
Having It All and Wanting More
http://www.oxfam.org/en/research/wealth-having-it-all-and-wanting-more
Technology / Social Equity
http://www.aspeninstitute.org/policy-work/communications-society/power-curve-society-future-innovationopportunity-social-equity
Needed: An “A Prize”
Course Project Topic Ideas
Project Teams
Beyond the Invisible Fist
A Very Large-Scale Strategy for Promoting More Constructive Forms of
Competition and Conflict
Destructive Conflict: As Serious a
Threat As Climate Change
Guy Burgess & Heidi Burgess
Co-Directors
Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado
UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635, [email protected]
Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess
Threat #1:
Violence
80,000,000 Dead Since 1950
Unnoticed Wars
http://stealthconflicts.wordpress.com/2009/02/21/death-toll-comparisons/
Costs of War
Killed
Wounded
Refugees
Survivors
Destruction
Expenditures
Threat #2:
Political Tyranny
Authoritarian Dystopias
Threat #3:
Failed Revolutions
The Exchange of Elites Problem
Threat #4:
Economic Tyranny / Plutocracy
The Robber Barons
Late 19th Century
The .01% of the 1% ?? !!
The Robber Barons
Early 21st Century
Threat #5:
Failed & Fragile States
• Social
– Demographic pressures
– Refugee movement
– Human flight
– Vengeance seeking
• Economic
• Political
– Delegitimization of the state
– Deterioration of public
services
– Out of control security
apparatus
– Group-based inequality
– Widespread violations of
human rights
– Economic decline
– Outside intervention
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/
24/2013_failed_states_interactive_map?utm_
source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaig
n=the-2013-failed-states-index-interactivemap-and-rankings
Threat #6:
“Perfect Storm” Conflicts
Threat #7:
Failed Problem-Solving
Society’s Big Problems Are All
Symptoms of the Conflict Problem
Climate Change
Inequality
Economic Alienation
Discrimination
And many more…
The Ever Present Conflict Problem
The Commons
Protection
Problem
The Conflict
Problem
The Economic
Stagnation
Problem
The Tyranny /
Plutocracy
Problem
Conflict Problems
Span the Political Divide
Grassroots
Republican
Problems
The Conflict
Problem
Grassroots
Democratic
Problems
The “Boiled Frog” Syndrome
Tough Problems
Machiavellian
Spoilers
Tyrant Wannabes
CONF 756
Tough Problems
The Crane
Brinton Effect
Tough Problems
Tragedy of the Commons
Tough Problems
Side A Fighters
Side B Fighters
Swing People
Side A
CONF 756
Swing People
Compromisers
Side B
Attacking the Compromisers
Conflict:
A “Global Warming-Class” Problem
Conference Planning Working
Groups?
Conference Planning Working Committee
Questions Considered Last Week
 What are the big trends that the Conference should
consider?
 Positive trends to encourage?
 Negative trends to limit?
 What are the formal and informal decision points
leading to those trends that need to be examined for
problematic conflict dynamics.
 What strategies should be considered for limiting
problematic dynamics?
 Bottom line: Are poor conflict handling skills really a
global warming-class problem?
 Also: Who should be involved? Names?
Perspectives? Strategies? Multiple “ways of knowing.”
Addressing the Conflict Problem:
Concrete Steps
 Mobilize a wide range of experts to call widespread
public attention to the threat.
 Offer concrete examples of situations where conflict problems
are now creating severe hardship
• Violence
• Bad decisions
 Distinguish the effort from self-serving, naïve,
Kumbaya conflict approaches
 Be clear about (and don’t oversell) the current “stateof-the-art”
 Knowledge utilization issues
 Knowledge availability issues
 Outline a realistic long-term effort to address the
problem – one that is likely to span the major political
divides
Do’s / Don’ts
 With last week’s discussion as a starting
point, what are the things that that need
doing as part of any comprehensive effort
to address the conflict problem? What
things must be avoided/limited?
 Send in notes again.
Table Numbers Group Assignments
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Front
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Do’s / Don’ts
 With last week’s discussion as a starting
point, what are the things that efforts to
address the conflict problem should do?
Should avoid?
Extra Slides
Beyond the Invisible Fist
A Very Large-Scale Strategy for Promoting More Constructive Forms of
Competition and Conflict
The Concept of Intractability
Guy Burgess & Heidi Burgess
Co-Directors
Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado
UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635, [email protected]
Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess
Beyond Intractability History
Intractability &
The Limits of Resolution
Conflict
Resolution
Consortium
SPIDR Best Practices
http://law.gsu.edu/cncr/pdf/papers/BestPracticesforGovtAgenices.pdf
Definition by Example
 International: Israel/Palestine, Tibet,
Kashmir
 Public Policy: Taxes, climate change,
homosexual marriage, abortion,
affirmative-action, unionization
 Interpersonal: Innumerable conflicts
between individuals in family, workplace,
and community settings
Intractability Continuum
Tractable
Intractable
Individual conflicts all at various
points along a continuum from
tractable to intractable
Coleman’s Definition: The Five Percent
http://www.fivepercentbook.com/
Attractors
 Like a black hole, everything nearby is
pulled into them, and escape is very
difficult, if not impossible.
http://attractorsoftware.org/
No Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA)
Party A
Winning
Outcomes
Party B
Winning
Outcomes
Party A
Party B
Winning
Winning
Outcomes ZOPA Outcomes
Intractable
Tractable
Simplified to “Us vs. Them”
“Intractability happens,” according to Coleman, “when the
many different components of a conflict collapse together
into one mass, into one very simple “us versus them”
story that effectively resist change.”
Polarization
Alliance Formation, Coalition Building
Cold War Alliances
Interlocking Issues
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/06/13/world/middleeast/1000000029
39855.mobile.html?from=homepage
Intractable Conflicts /
More Tractable Dispute Episodes
 Conflicts – underlying, long-running, tensions
between the parties based on differing
interests with respect to distributional issues,
moral questions, status, and identity.
 Disputes – episodes within the context of the
larger conflict that may be resolved by
agreement or various types of legal, political,
military or other power contests.
Conflicts and Disputes




The underlying conflict is intractable and
cannot be resolved in the near (or even long)
term.
Dispute episodes within the context of that
conflict are, however, routinely resolved by
power contests (or, sometimes, agreement).
The cumulative effect of these resolved
disputes determines the “outcome” of the
larger conflict for the moment.
The underlying conflict is only “resolved”
when there is no significant challenge to the
prevailing situation (outcome) for an
extended.
The Football Analogy (sort of)
Disputes are the plays and conflict is the game
with special rules: 1) the game never ends, and
2) the goal is to keep the ball at your end of the field.
Abortion Dispute History
A partial list of major abortion-related disputes in the United States and
associated shift in aggregate social policies.
Pro-Choice
Pro-Life
Abortion prohibition laws
Abortion legalization efforts (state-level)
Roe v. Wade
GOP decision to focus on the abortion issue
Pro-Choice interest group organization
Pro-Life interest organization
Pro-Life Supreme Court appointments
Pro-Choice Supreme Court appointments
Threats abortion providers
State-level abortion restriction legislation
Many other disputes in various arenas
Climate Change Dispute History
More Favorable to
Environmental Interests
More Favorable to
Pro-Fossil Interests
Kyoto Protocol – 1997
IPCC Gore Nobel Prize – 2007
Copenhagen Conference – 2009
US Stimulus/Alternative Energy – 2009
Climategate Controversy – 2009+
CAFE Agreement – Summer 2011
?
Keystone XL Pipeline Permits – 2013 ?
1st Party / Advocacy Perspective
The field’s heroes and heroines are almost
always associated with long-term efforts to
promote social justice through constructive,
nonviolent, confrontation strategies.
Compromise / final resolution model
virtually never delivers.