Transcript Argentina and Uruguay

Building capacity to assess the impact of
climate change/variability and
develop adaptive responses for the
mixed crop/livestock production systems
in the Argentinean and Uruguayan Pampas
Principal Scientists
• Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay
• Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay
• Ricardo Romero, GRAS-INIA, Uruguay
• Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina
• María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina
• Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
• Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia
Junior
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Scientists
José P. Castaño, GRAS-INIA, Uruguay
Laura Olivera, GRAS-INIA, Uruguay
Gabriel Rodríguez, INTA, Argentina
Mixed systems in the Pampas
Objective
To further develop capacity and to
establish, use and maintain an
agricultural systems network in the
Pampas to assess the impact of
climate change/variability and
develop adaptive responses for the
mixed grain/livestock production
systems.
Project Premise
One of the most effective manners
for assisting agricultural
stakeholders to be prepared and
adapt to possible climate change
scenarios, is by helping them to
better cope with current climate
variability
What paper will we publish?
Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment of
crop/livestock production systems in the
Argentinean and Uruguayan Pampas.
Activities
 Integrate crop/pasture simulation models and
climate change scenarios in a system able to
assist planning and decision-making at the farm
level
HOW?
• APSIM
(Agricultural Production
Systems Simulator)
Calibrated and validated
• Climate Change Scenarios
GCMs: Obtain major shifts (months, variables)
Define ranges (including incremental)
Min
Avg
Max
All results of CGMs Run
Range: Min - Max
Incremental approach to generate daily data for APSIM
Assess the impacts of climate change /climate
variability on farmer’s income
Current and Future
Climate
Ag. Sys. Mgm.
APSIM
Gross Margin Distribution
(main index)
Distribution of Prices
(historical data)
Study the vulnerability of different types of
mixed production systems
Changes due to CC Scenarios of:
•Frequency of negative Gross Margin
•Variability of Gross Margins
Define whole-farm adaptive measurements
better adjusted to cope with current
climate variability
APSIM allows evaluation of farming practices
and crop mixes which lead to increased
system resiliency
What will we incorporate from the workshop?
• Risk and Vulnerability Mapping
Integration of GIS and Remote Sensing
with the current project tools
Other options will be
discussed with all project
team members
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