Transcript Establishing applied systems network for building regional

Building capacity to assess the impact of
climate change/variability and
develop adaptation responses for the
mixed crop/livestock production systems
in the Argentinean , Brazilian and
Uruguayan Pampas
Principal Scientists
•
•
•
Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina
María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina
Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
•
•
Gilberto Cunha, Brazil
Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil
•
•
Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay
Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay
•
Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia
Establishing
Applied Systems Analysis
Networks
for
Building Regional Adaptation Capacity
(AIACC LA 27)
OBJECTIVE:
Incorporate Climate Information for
Improving Planning / Decision Making
Agriculture / Natural Resources
Planning Agencies (Public, International)
Emergency Systems
Credit / Insurance Programs
Farmers (commercial, subsistence)
Applied Systems Analysis
WHY?
Planning, Decision Making are Complex Processes
•Many Variables
•Many Interactions
•Different Priorities
Improving Planning / Decision Making
Is Climate the main source of Variability?
Consider other sources of variability
• Product Prices
• Production Cost
• Other Factors
Price Trend for Finished Steer (1983-1999)
(INAC, Uruguay)
US$/kg
Gordo
Steer
Finished
ofNovillo
US$/kg
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Jul-83
Mar-86
Dec-88
Sep-91
Jun-94
Mar-97
Dec-99
Price Trend for Finished Steer (1983-1999)
(INAC, Uruguay)
US$/kg
GordoSteer
Finished
ofNovillo
US$/kg
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Jul-83
Mar-86
Dec-88
Sep-91
Jun-94
Mar-97
Dec-99
Price Trend for Finished Steer (1983-1999)
(INAC, Uruguay)
1.20
US$/kg
GordoSteer
Finished
ofNovillo
US$/kg
(100% Interannual Variability)
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Jul-83
Nov-84
Mar-86
Aug-87
Dec-88
May-90
Improving Planning / Decision Making
Is Climate the main source of Variability?
Consider other sources of variability
•Product Prices
•Production Cost
•TECHNOLOGY ?
Yield (detrended) variability
(1960 – 2000)
Maize
Rice
ARROZ (1960 - 2000): DESVIOS DE RENDIMIENTOS
60
60
50
50
DESVIOS DE RENDIMIENTOS (%)
DESVIOS DE RENDIMIENTOS (%)
MAIZ (1960 - 2000): DESVIOS DE RENDIMIENTOS
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
1960
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
-60
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Why lower variability?
100% rice is irrigated
TECHNOLOGY
Detrended considering technology changes
Therefore: Mostly Climate Variability
2000
Improving Planning / Decision Making
Consider many sources of variability
+ Complex Interactions
+ Environmental Impacts
+ Socio-economic Impacts
NEED TO INTEGRATE DATA AND TOOLS
APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
INFORMATION
Some Difficulties for Disseminating
Often Information is Available (Especially Latin America)
(even “in excess”)
But:
No Priorization
No Processing
No Analysis
NOT USED
EFFECTIVELY
Tools for Processing and Anlyzing
Information
•Simulation Models
•Expert Systems
•Risk analysis
•Remote Sensing (Satellites)
•Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
•Global Positioning Systems(GPS)
But: Use is not generalized
Answer: IDSS Approach
Use Modern Tools for:
Acquiring, Processing and Analyzing Information
and generate results in simple formats,
Understandable and therefore USABLE
by stakeholders acting in the Agricultural Sector
(e.g., map of Rio de la Plata with red and green areas)
1990’s Established and IDSS working group in SESA
Information and
DECISION
SUPPORT
SYSTEMS
Since 1990’s
Uruguay
Latin America
Argentina
NASA, USA
Brazil
NOAA, USA
EPA, USA
Australia
Spain
European Commission
Columbia
University
IDSS Approach
SIMULATION
MODELS
REMOTE
SENSING
CLIMATE
CHANGE/VAR
GIS
Monitoring, risk analyses, environmental impact, projections
Impact Studies:
Example of Climate Change
Technology Impact
• New Alternatives (not only wheat)
• Management (fertilizers, cultivars, irrigation)
•
Variation of Prices and Cost
REMOTE SENSING: MONITORING
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JANUARY
Very high
FEBRUARY
MARCH
High
Low
Very low
La Niña 1999 / 2000
Ing. Juan Notaro, Uruguayan Minister of Agriculture in 1999/2000
(Letter to our INIA-IFDC-NASA Project)
"(...) The results of your work during the recent drought were
useful for making both, operational and political decisions.
From the operational standpoint, your work allowed us to
concentrate our efforts in the regions highlighted as being
the ones with the worst and longest water deficit. We prioritized
those identified regions for concentrating the use of our
resources, both financial aid and machines for dams, water
reservoirs, etc.
(...) From the strictly political standpoint, your work provided
us with objective information to defend our prioritization of
regions, in a moment in which every governor, politician and
farmer in the country was asking for aid. We received no
complaints in this respect. In the same line, your work also
allowed to mitigate pressures since we provided the press and
the general public with transparent, technically sound and
precise information”.
Feasible
Moderately feasible
Unfeasible
Drainage
Gravel
Slope
Rooting
Depth
GIS + Databases=
Agro-climatic
Zoning:
Land Use
Feasibility
Fertility
Feasible
Moderately feasible
Unfeasible
Agro-Climatic Zoning
WHEAT
•Soil
•Climate
•Terrain
Climate Change will have different effect on areas with
Different Feasibility (Risk)
(And: Feasibility is Dynamic (Technology)
Farm Level: Expected Income (US$/ha) for Diferent Systems
30-year Mean Climate Change Scenario 1
System 1
System 3
System 2
System 4
AIACC LA 27 Project Premise
One of the most effective manners
for assisting agricultural
stakeholders to be prepared and
adapt to possible climate change
scenarios, is by helping them to
better cope with current climate
variability
“Climate-proof Systems”
Uruguay: Beef Production and Number of Calves
2400
2200
900
2000
800
1800
700
1600
1999/2000??
600
1400
Total Prod
Calves
500
1200
1988/89
400
1000
1988
1990
Previous
La Nina
1992
1994
1996
1998
La Nina
1999/2000
2000
Calves (1,000 heads)
Total Beef Production (million Ton)
1000
Uruguay: Beef Production and Number of Calves
1000
2400
2200
900
2000
800
1800
Improved Pastures
Supplementary feed
700
MORE RESILIENT
SYSTEM
600
Total Prod
Calves
500
1600
1400
“CLIMATE PROOF”
1200
400
1000
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Calves (1,000 heads)
Total Beef Production (million Ton)
1999/2000
Uruguay: IFDC/INIA/NASA: Climate Forecast Applications in Agriculture
Workshops
(Quarterly)
Regional
Outlook
Meetings
Regional
Outlook
“TWG”
Nat. Climate
Res. Ctrs.
Local Outlook
IAI
Agri-Business
Local
Outlook
ENSO and
“Global” Climate
Forecasts
Needs
(Variables, Moments, Tools)
Tools
IFDC
INIA
ECM
MAF
Planning
Statistics
NGOs
IRI
NOAA
Tech. Reps.
Gov.Org.
NASA
Un.Fla.
QSLD
Growers
Met. Service
Others
Media
Internet
Establishing Applied Systems Analysis Networks
for
Building Regional Adaptation Capacity
Next steps (2003):
Assist establishing IDSS Approach in other developing
countries (Latin America and beyond)
Train “operators” (as opposed to MSc, Ph.D.)
How?
Establish an IDSS “Center” for South-South Cooperation
Objectives of the Proposed
IDSS Center for South-South Cooperation
To take advantage and build upon the capacity developed by the
IDSS work group and the existing technical and scientific
cooperation agreements established with specialized institutes
(NASA, NOAA, IRI, APSRU, JRC, EPA, US Universities) and apply
the concept of South-South Cooperation to:
1. Collaborate with developing countries to establish applications
of the IDSS approach (including climate variability and
climate change) to improve agricultural planning and decision-making
2. Utilize the Center to train personnel from developing countries in
the application of the IDSS approach under conditions and with
resources (hardware, software) that are typical of developing
countries.
Seed funds:
Most Activities:
IDB, UNDP, FAO
Funded with Specific Projects
Walter E. Baethgen
International Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development Center
IFDC Oficina Uruguay
Regional Crop Yield Forecasts: ANNUAL (Planning, FEWS, etc.)
3.
Field Identification
and area measurement
NDVI vs Yields
5.0
2. NDVI at anthesis
Rendimiento (ton/ha)
1.
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.40
CERES - Wheat Calibration:
Crop
Simulation
Grain Yield Models
5.
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
NDVI en Anthesis
8000
Seasonal Climate
forecasts
7000
6000
Simulated (kg/ha)
4.
5000
4000
TURKEY
MOROCCO
SYRIA-1
SYRIA-2
BRAZIL
ROMANIA
INDIA
CHINA
URUGUAY
ARGENTINA
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Observed (kg/ha)
6. Surveys, groundtruthing, etc
Regional Crop Yield Forecasts LONG TERM (Planning)
3.
Field Identification
and area measurement
NDVI vs Yields
5.0
2. NDVI at anthesis
Rendimiento (ton/ha)
1.
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.40
Climate Change
Scenarios
5.
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
NDVI en Anthesis
CERES - Wheat Calibration:
Crop
Simulation
Grain Yield Models
8000
7000
6000
Simulated (kg/ha)
4.
0.45
6.
5000
4000
TURKEY
MOROCCO
SYRIA-1
SYRIA-2
BRAZIL
ROMANIA
INDIA
CHINA
URUGUAY
ARGENTINA
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Observed (kg/ha)
Consulting with Planning
Agencies