Transcript Climate/Atmospheric Science & HPC

Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science
SCHOOL OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT
Climate/Atmospheric Science & HPC:
Unravelling the Past, Understanding the
Present and Predicting the Future
Alan M. Haywood
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science
(ICAS)
ICAS one of four research institutes in the School of Earth &
Environment
120 Staff and Researchers
5 Research Groups:
 Atmospheric Dynamics
 Cloud Microphysics
 Atmospheric Chemistry
 Atmospheric Aerosol
 Climate Change and Impacts
Research with High Performance Computing
Research philosophy involves bringing together:
Theory
 Observations
 Numerical modelling
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ARC1 is a key research tool.
Daily Weather Analysis, Research and
Forecasting
Steven Pickering and Andrew Ross
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Performing daily weather forecasts across the UK and Europe
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Used in meteorology teaching modules
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Developing case studies of high impact events (hurricanes)
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Providing forecasts for land based research projects
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Monitoring and analysis of extreme weather events
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Comparing simulated and observational weather data
Weather forecasting for the Orographic Flow and the
Climate of the Antarctic Peninsula (OFCAP) field project
Victoria Smith, Steven Pickering, Stephen Mobbs, Alan Gadian
Collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf during summer 2002
Strengthening circumpolar
westerly flow
Hypothesis for cause of collapse :
Most rapidly warming region on
the planet - 3.4°C/century
Changes to circumpolar flow in
recent decades have altered the
wind patterns of the Antarctic
Peninsula
More frequent episodes of flow
‘over’ instead of flow ‘around’
the Peninsula
Warm/dry westerly down slope
winds generated by mountains
Warm/dry air across ice shelf!
Modified wind regimes have
altered climate of Peninsula
Very limited observations available to verify hypothesis
-Larsen C ice shelf now at risk
- Intense field campaign undertaken in Jan / Feb 2011 to gain more understanding of the
mechanisms driving climate change and warming of Antarctic Peninsula
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Role of ARC1: Weather forecasts for planning
research flights
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
model run daily on ARC1
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Highly sophisticated computer model
High resolution (1.5 km) required
60 hour forecast every day
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING
NEEDED IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THE
NECESSARY DAILY FORECASTS
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First use of ARC1’s advanced
reservation facility
144 cpu’s set aside each night between
8pm and 8am
Forecast products copied to Rothera,
Antarctica and weather forecast given
at 8:30 am (11:30 UK time)
Outer domain of model
7.5 km horizontal resolution
Automatic weather stations
Rothera
research base
Larsen C
Ice Shelf
Inner domain of model
1.5 km horizontal resolution
Example forecast products from OFCAP
Westerly synoptic flow driving
cyclogenesis in lee of peninsula
and easterly cross Peninsula
flow further south
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Foehn clearly forecast in
temperature plot along 68S
west of Peninsula
Cross-peninsula easterly driving
strong jets from Fjords on
western side of Peninsula
Extremely successful use of the ARC1 computer cluster and it’s new advanced
reservation facility
ARC1 facility shown to be reliable enough and able to dedicate the resources
needed to support field campaign
Global Aerosol Modelling
Ken Carslaw, Graham Mann, Domninick Spracklen, Kirsty Pringle + 5
postdocs + 5 PhD students
Small particles in the atmosphere (aerosol) play an important, but
uncertain, role on weather, climate and human health.
Some aerosol are formed naturally (e.g. dust and sea salt) and others as a result of pollution
At Leeds we developed a global aerosol model (GLOMAP) to better understand how these
particles are formed, and how they behave in the atmosphere.
GLOMAP has been implemented in both the Met Office Unified Model (as part of the UKCA
project) and the European Centre for Long Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model.
Use of ARC1
GLOMAP is a very diverse group with interests in: volcanoes, cosmic rays,
geoengineering, atmosphere-biosphere interactions, cloud formation, dust storms
and many more...
The overall group philosophy is to:
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Test complex and simplified parameterisations to decide what level of complexity is
required.
Run simulations at the same time as field campaigns to evaluate our model against
observations.
Try to identify and parameterize additional processes required to correctly simulate
atmospheric aerosol
High performance computing allows us to include more
processes, and in more detail
We receive funding from: the National Environmental Research Council, the European Union
and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Process understanding and model evaluation
The GLOMAP aerosol model simulates the mass and number of
different types of particle, including mineral dust.
Satellite image of dust blown
from the Sahara over the ocean
GLOMAP model simulation of dust
aerosol particles
By comparing to a range of
different observations we can
better understand the
processes which are well /
badly treated in the model.
This leads to a better
understanding of the
processes involved
Ground based observations
GLOMAP will provide additional model support to
the FENNEC field campaign taking place this June
in the Sahara
Emissions and processing: the impact of
volcanoes on climate
Volcanoes produce aerosol particles which
reflect solar radiation and cool the climate.
Transported
throughout the
atmosphere
In 1783 the Laki volcano
erupted in Iceland - one
of the largest flood lava
eruptions in recent
history.
Sulfate
aerosol
particles
SO2
Previous studies have used a very simple treatment of the aerosol microphysics
to model volcanic aerosol.
In Leeds, PhD student Anja Schmidt used GLOMAP run on the ARC1 computer to
model the effect of the Laki eruption on aerosol and climate
Inventory and Stability of Marine Methane
Hydrates
Alan Haywood and Stephen Hunter
Water cages that efficiently trap methane (150x density than STP)
Concentrated methane store + widespread – energy industry interest
Anthropogenic warming – submarine inventory may begin to disassociate
Methane strong GH gas + poses potential geohazard (submarine land slides)
+ ocean acidification
Previous estimates of the global inventory
4x1018 g CH4
3000 GT Carbon
Model Evaluation
Cascadia
Blake Ridge
Margin
Modelling the Steady State Inventory
Hydrate mass = ~ 4700 to 5030 Pg C for present-day
Dynamism
Predicted
bottom
water
temperature anomalies and
ice sheet extent (↑) 6 ka (↗)
LGM and (→) 120 ka
How does the global hydrate inventory respond to the changing
bottom water conditions and sea-level change?
Blake Ridge example – test case
Grand Challenge Science – Simulating Glacial
Cycles
Petit et al. (1999) Nature.
Regional Temperature Anomalies
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Ice core data: thanks to
Valerie MassonDelmotte
SAT anom (°C)
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Ending on a personal note
ARC1 is doing what it said
on the tin – capacity
But…it has also become
something extraordinary…
It is my capability service…