Transcript Data in developing countries

Data and Information needs in
developing countries –
towards the UNFCCC Research
and systematic observation
David Lesolle
The Climate System
Energy Balance
Hydrological Cycle
The Global Carbon Cycle
Estimating the Magnitude
of the Natural Greenhouse Effect
Net Incoming Solar
Energy
(S0 (1-A) R2)
where
=
Outgoing Heat
Energy
(4R2kTe4)
S0 is the solar constant
A is average albedo, or reflectivity
R is the radius of the earth
k is Boltzmann’s constant
Te is earth’s apparent temperature (seen from space)

Te equals -19C
However, average global surface T is + 14C

Natural greenhouse effect warms the
surface by 33C
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
(Site：Mauna Loa； 2004: 379ppm)
Atmospheric CO2 concentration
and temperature variations
Vostok,
CO2
4
300
2
275
0
250
-2
225
-4
200
-6
175
-8
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Temperature(℃)
Concentration
(ppmv)
325
-10
0 年距今
Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the
Required Observations
Mid-1970s
Atmosphere
Mid-1980s
Early 1990s
Late 1990s
Present Day
Early 2000s?
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Weather
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Climate
Variability
Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Need an Integrated
Global Observing
System Going
Beyond the WWW
Sulphate
Aerosol
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Carbon Cycle
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Climate
Change
GCOS was established in 1992
• To ensure that the observations and
information needed to address climate-related
issues are obtained and made available to all
potential users.
• Co-sponsored by:
– The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
– The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
(IOC) of UNESCO
– The United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP)
– The International Council for Science (ICSU).
Background
Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) implementation plan - for
adoption by the COP at its thirteenth
session.
1.The revision of the “UNFCCC reporting
guidelines on global climate change
observing systems”;
2.The progress reports by the GTOS
secretariat, and to identify possible actions
in improving global terrestrial climate
observations.
GCOS and the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change
• Research and systematic observations (COP-5
in Bonn, 1999):
– Parties to Provide Detailed National Reports
• GCOS Guidance Adopted
• Voluntary for non-Annex 1 Parties (Developing Nations)
• WMO GCOS Office to Develop Synthesising Process
– Organize Regional GCOS Capacity Building Workshops
• This workshop is not a GCOS workshop
– Report on Deficiencies in Observing Systems
– Facilitate Intergovernmental Coordination
Deepening Understanding
on Climate
From Climate to climate system
 Climate is not only temperature, pressure, and
humidity
Climate is changing
 30 year normal is also changeable
Climate is not only controlled by
consistent solar radiation,
geographic features, and
atmospheric circulation
What is there – out of reach?
Atmosphere Observation
• Most organized system
• Two basic sub-systems: WWW, GAW
• Continuous observation for
atmospheric dynamics, physics and
chemical process is crucial for climate
change study.
• Contents: circulation, composition,
surface elements, cloud and radiation
etc.
Extreme weather event
• An extreme weather event is an event that is rare
within its statistical reference distribution at a
particular place.
• Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme weather
event would normally be as rare as or rarer than
the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition, my
rare is not necessarily your rare….
• An extreme climate event is an average of a
number of weather events over a certain period
of time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g.
rainfall over a season).
climate variability vs climate change
A Variety of Forecasts
Weather
• mostly regional, short-lived events
• Deterministic forecasts
• protection of life
Seasonal climate
• Global, seasons in advance
• Probabilistic forecasts – deviations from normal seasons
• Mitigation – energy; food; water; health, etc sectors
Climate change scenarios
• Global, visions of the future
• Includes chemistry and biology modeling
• Projections of possible future changes to climatology
• Understanding unintended consequences & adaptation
• Solving the “carbon” problem
Some New Forecast Products
Food Security and Health
•Drought including interactive vegetation
•Heat threats
•Pollution
•Coastal ecosystems
Adaptation
•Sea Level
These will be needed even without significant
global warming impacts
Likely Future Product Cycle and Players
‘Prototype’
Research
entities
‘Reliability’
‘Convenience’
Specialized
centers by
region or sector
Some Future Think
•Think interdisciplinary
•Think specialized centers
•Think new partnerships
Private
Sector
‘Public’
NMHSs
The framework for service provision
- fundamental common features of the established
system
SPECIAL SERVICES
BASIC SERVICES
BASIC SYSTEMS
Your Capability/Capacity is Challenged (I)
• Technology progresses faster than the demand for new
products
• Since these are not your main products, developmental
resources will be inadequate
•
new demand must be generated -oceanographers and
climate guys will play this role
• You are failure adverse – new products entail risks
• The niche will be filled. Since your core business is
elsewhere, the opportunity exists for innovators to move
in
• Who will the new players be?
Your Capability/Capacity is Challenged (II)
Historical climate change data mainly come
from two sources:
- Operational services of weather forecast, aviation and
navigations.
- Scientific experiment and programmes: WCRP, IGBP
Strength: Long records
Weakness: not persistent, changes in
instruments, station locations, observation
practices. Also, temporal and spatial uneven.
THANK YOU